Saad Eddine OthmaniOn 14 January, the first anniversary of the Tunisian Revolution, leaders from Morocco, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco travelled to the country in a show of solidarity. The visit also highlighted the interest in building links across the region, in part through revival of the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA).
This weekend, it was announced that interim Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki will be reciprocating the gesture, with official visits to Morocco and Algeria in early February. In a further indication that the regional disagreements which led to the suspension of the AMU in 1994 are easing --- for now at least --- Morocco's new Foreign Minister Saad Eddine Othmani will arrive in Algeria today for two days of discussions. Writing for MoroccoBoard News Service, Hassan Masiky examines the significance of the visit, and how a thawing of hostilities will play to domestic populations still seeking greater political reform and economic opportunities.
The "Arab Spring" Spurs Algeria to Reconcile with Morocco"
Hassan Masiky
Reports of the upcoming visit by the new Moroccan Foreign Minister to Algiers are signs that recent political and social events in North Africa are forcing the Algerian government and the Moroccan authorities to reconsider their long-simmering rivalry. Morocco and Algeria have been in a state of “undeclared war” since the beginning of hostility in the Western Sahara in 1975. However, the toppling of the Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan dictatorships is forcing the aging Algerian Political and Military leaderships to reconsider their regional strategy. For its part, the Moroccan authorities, under similar pressures but with more wiggling room, hastened political reforms in the Kingdom leading to the formation of an Islamist government issued from the opposition.
More than ever, the military establishment and the political Old Guard in Algeria need a hand from the monarchy in Morocco so both nations can thrive in a fast=moving political environment. It is worth noting that on several occasions Morocco made attempts to mend relations with Algeria just to be turn down by the Bouteflika Government. So what is different about these new rapprochement attempts?
The formation of a new Government in Morocco has made it easy for the Algerian hardliners to justify their change of heart toward the Kingdom of Morocco as an overture toward a new Moroccan political elite that has opposed the status quo in Morocco and that is in theory not connected to the Monarchy. But it is the fear of a radical change in Morocco that keeps the Algerian Military up at night. It will be difficult for the current Algerian regime to survive, in case the opposition gains more ground in Morocco. Notwithstanding Algeria’s past refusals to open borders and improve relations with Morocco, it is becoming evident to the “Oujda clan” and the top brass of the Algerian Armed Forces that a stable and secure Moroccan Monarchy is in the best interest of the current Algerian regime.
In other words, the “Arab Spring” is coercing the hardliners in Algeria to align with Morocco. Forced to co-exist with dramatically different and essentially opposite “type” of governments in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, Algerian officials found themselves closer to Rabat than any other regime in the region. All of sudden, King Mohammed VI gradual reforms and his power-sharing arrangement with the opposition started to look appealing to the Algerian oligarchy. Well aware of the political and economic discontent in their back yard, the rulers in Algiers are also worried about the potential impact of the Moroccan F20M on the brewing Algerian unorganized opposition. the Algerian press hardly report on the familiar weekly protests in Morocco even though such social disturbances were used in the past by the Algerian official press as” propaganda” tools to discredit the Moroccan model.