The first primary in the 2012 Presidential campaign will be held next Tuesday in New Hampshire. Before that, however, we get today's caucuses --- effectively, town meetings --- in Iowa for activists, primarily on the Republican side, to state their preference for the nominee for November's election. Republican presidential hopefuls have criss-crossed the state for months, spending millions of dollars and time on states only have 11 of the 538 electoral votes that will determine who is the next President.
So why should we care beyond the razzmatazz of an opening contest?
The answer is simple: Iowa and New Hampshire practice retail politics. There is no point in candidates presenting a 5-point education plan or a 10-point economic plan. The voters won’t be interested; instead they want to get to know the candidate, where he or she came from, their ideals and beliefs, the personal details. This might seem trivial to some, but this is the test of a candidate. This is why so many drop out early in the race.
Mitt Romney has been the Republican front runner or a close second for many months. He has seen high-flyers like Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain take the lead and soon after drop by the wayside. If Romney wins, he will have matched expectation; if he comes second, he will have a fight on his hands to restore credibility; if he places third, it might be the death of his campaign. In contrast, if Rick Santorum wins, he will have exceeded expectations and will enjoy what is known as “The Big Mo.”
Here's how the day will play out. Iowa voters meet at the appropriate venue where representatives shill for their candidates. At the appointed hour, those present will take places in the room allocated to each candidate. He/she with the lowest number of supporters drops outa, and the exercise is repeated until there is an outright winner. The votes of all venues are tallied and an overall winner is declared.
Back in the day, primary season started in March. Now it starts with the change of the calendar. And, despite the Iowas and New Hampshires, the numerical reality is that a candidate who wins a mere 11 states, provided they are the ones with the largest populations, can take the nomination and then the White House.
Still, I am an admirer of the system. Four years ago, we were all spellbound by the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. It a campaign that arguably energised America, at least until the onset of the in-fighting in Washington that --- along with the economic difficulties --- has put a question mark over hope and change.
Will we see that energy again?