Barack Obama and Angela MerkelFor many Europeans, Santa Claus delivered an early gift with a re-elected Barack Obama. Most celebrated the Democrat’s victory, as the continent's leaders rushed to congratulat the man of the moment. With a second Obama term confirmed, Europe can now breathe a sigh of relief.
Or can it?
We are told that the Obama Administration will have no surprises for Europe. The terms floating around are "continuity", "balance", "status quo". Business will carry on as normal.
That is the nature of the second term in office; to build on previous commitments, to pursue established policies and maintain political bonds. Such was the case with the recent eight-year administrations of Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush). And with a split Congress, it is fair to say Obama will not have much political freedom to muster up anything new on the European scene.
So the Europeans can keep celebrating? Not quite.
The same political theme led by the same political leaders is not necessarily the best case for Europe. Consider the Eurozone crisis, never mentioned in the Presidential campaign --- the Obama Administration saw the situation remarkably differently from the Europeans and are still looking for different methods to handle the situation.
Or take a specific look at Germany. While many of the most vocal celebrants have German accents, Obama has not developed a close bond with Chancellor Angela Merkel. While the Chancellor was warm and friendly with George W. Bush, there has always been distance from Obama since --- as a Presidential candidate in July 2008 --- he was denied the privileged spot in front of Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate for a speech. While the two have been cordial since Obama took office, he has never made an official visit to Germany.
The blunt truth is that Germany and even Europe may not be a priority for the re-elected President. Close to obscurity in the campaign, Europe had no place for either candidate in the final Presidential debate, focused on foreign policy. The notion of Obama as a "Pacific President" continues, with a shift of American political outlook to Asia.
Is there any cause for happiness?
In one word, trade. A two-term Obama may tap the potential for a trans-Atlantic trade agreement.
The agreement has been a bedrock of German foreign policy. Merkel has stressed its importance, most recently in a speech in July. British Prime Minister Cameron also mentioned it in his congratulations to Obama. Both leader seem content that, with Obama's re-election, the trade deal is on the political horizon in 2013.
What they may underestimate is Obama's political situation, with a toxic atmosphere in which a Republican House of Representative will likely try block any measures giving Obama’s second administration a political triumph.
Despite euphoria for Obama and the sense of stability for Europe, the second term brings more perils than prizes. There will be renewed disagreement between European leaders and the Democrats on how to deal with the Eurozone Crisis, while the American focus shifts further east.
This re-election is a poisoned kiss.