EA WorldView

2040 GMT: Large Rockets Fired Towards Central Damascus. In the last video we posted a video that shows the remains of a rocket that landed in Ein Tarma, a district in southern Damascus. Eliot Higgins and I have reviewed the image, and we are in agreement that what we are looking at matches the very unique tail end of a Frog-7 rocket. The picture on the left in the debris in Damascus, and the picture on the right is a Frog-7 on a truck launcher:

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1064/868869014_d3b90b0505_o.jpg

The Frog-7 has a range of 70 kilometers, and has an average margin of error of 500-700 meters. Ein Tarma is only 1.2 kilometers by 800 meters, and is situated an alarming-close 2.7-3 kilometers from the very center of Damascus:

View Syria - 2013 March 12 - EA Worldview in a larger map

Here's the video, posted by the Ein Tarma Coordination Committee, showing the impact of one or more of the rockets. The devastation is evident:

This means that the Syrian military is launching very powerful rockets, from up to 70 kilometers away, TOWARDS central Damascus. A targeting error and a strong wind could lead these to land just about anywhere. Regardless, the Frog-7 is unguided, and cannot precisely hit a military target. To fire a weapon of this kind towards the capital city is shocking.

And this far into this bloody conflict, there's very little left that shocks us.

1825 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 72 people have been killed so far today. Interestingly, the LCC has broken down the civilian and rebel deaths in Damascus:

50 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs, among them 30 from the FSA; 7 in Aleppo; 6 in Homs; 3 in Daraa; 2 in Hama; 2 in Idlib; 1 in Lattakia; and 1 in Deir Ezzor.

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

Various areas of Damascus have been heavily shelled, as well as attacked by rockets. Also, there has been fierce fighting in the Yarmouk Refugee Camp. The CFDPC posts this video showing a surface-to-surface rocket that hit Ein Tarma, in the southeast of the capital. Another video shows extensive damage from the rockets:

1817 GMT: Regime Killing Deserters? The Guardian reports:

Syrian forces killed at least 30 army deserters in an ambush on the Damascus airport road on Tuesday as opposition fighters were guiding them on foot to a rebel-held district, opposition sources told Reuters.

1610 GMT: Turkish Incursion into Syria. A snap-analysis of our last update. This news is significant for two reasons. The first is that there are murky implications about Turkey working with Jabhat al Nusra. Michael Weiss probably sums this up best:

If it's legal to drone "associates of associates" of al-Qaeda, then the US can drone Turkish security forces. hurriyetdailynews.com/al-nusra-helpe…
— michaeldweiss (@michaeldweiss) March 12, 2013

The second point - The Turkish Special Forces not only entered Syria, but that information has apparently made it to the press. If Turkey now sees Assad as a direct threat, and is accusing the regime of conducting this attack, then will Turkey hesitate to use special forces again?

1600 GMT: Turkish Special Forces Worked with Al Nusra. Hurriyet, the Turkish daily paper, drops two huge bombshells today. The first is that Turkish forces worked with Jabhat al Nusra to track down the perpetrators of a January car bombing at a border crossing. The second shocker is that the Turkish Special Forces actually entered Syria, using information acquired by the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al Nusra, in order to capture the suspects:

Turkish security forces have contacted the armed opposition in Syria, the Free Syrian Army, which controls ‘liberated zones’ to capture the suspects who have escaped to Syria. Their information was sent to al-Nusra Front and al-Faruk Brigades. Fatih Sultan Mehmet Brigade, which is controlling mountainous area in Latakia, a western province of Syria, also informed on the issue, according to Turkish daily Yeni Şafak. Al-Nusra Front has been blacklisted by Washington as a terrorist organization for its deadly suicide attacks.

In line with the information, members of Syrian opposition located the location of suspects in Selme area of Latakia and then notified Turkish authorities. A Turkish special operation team brought suspects to Turkey after crossing the border in a movie-like operation. Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç said operations were like a movie on March 11.

The capturing of the bombing suspects would be huge news, but a Turkish incursion, with the help of Jabhat al Nusra, a group that the US has placed on the terrorism list, is a significant development.

1548 GMT: Conscription Update. Prominent activist Shakeeb al Jabri clarifies exactly what this latest Fatwa means:

@jmiller_ea @bigalbrand @simadiab The reservists have been called up months ago and for a year now conscripts are being denied discharge
— Shakeeb Al-Jabri (@LeShaque) March 12, 2013

@jmiller_ea @bigalbrand @simadiab at the end of their regular service. This general readiness order/fatwa allows him to enlist anyone over
— Shakeeb Al-Jabri (@LeShaque) March 12, 2013

@jmiller_ea @bigalbrand @simadiab the age of fifteen and could pave the way for nationalization of industry.
— Shakeeb Al-Jabri (@LeShaque) March 12, 2013

1541 GMT: Mandatory Conscription Already Started? A small update - some sources have suggested that today's announcement means that mandatory military service for all Syrian men of fighting age will start immediately. Another source confirms that all men born after 1978 who are part of the reserves have already been called up or will be called up promptly.

We'll try to sort that.

1529 GMT: State TV. We don't often watch Syrian State TV. Typically, it's characterized by a generally calm explanation of how the Assad regime is killing "terrorists." Today, however, we're trying to confirm whether they are playing religious imagery, as some have suggested. While we haven't seen that, we've seen something else.

Nasser Kandil, a prominent Lebanese pro-Assad analyst who occasionally speaks on Syrian State TV, is known for his animated talks and his pro-regime rhetoric. Today it's taking on a different tone.

A visibly angry Kandil dressed down the anchor for even mentioning the words "Jaish al Hur," or "Free Syrian Army." Kandil exploded, saying that there is no such thing, but that all of the fighters were "Jabhat al Nusra" and Al Qaeda. He complained that while the world has accused HEzbollah of various nefarious deeds, "Bin Laden's fighters" were operating inside Syria. He said that Turkey and Saudi Arabia were providing weapons to Al Qaeda terrorists. He accused America of interference. In other words, he hit all the buzzwords that we're used to hearing.

The content of his speech is not surprising, as the regime has said all of this before. What was surprising was his frankness. He sounds nervous, panicked, even disappointed. At one point he was talking about how great Bashar al Assad and his wife Asma have been for the country - it's almost as if he's disappointed that the Syrian people have been ungrateful.

We'll keep watching to see if we can find any of the claims we hear earlier, but State TV may be providing an interesting insight into the psyche of the Assad regime.

See a livestream of State TV here (thanks to Jonas Renz for the link).

1445 GMT: Compulsory Military Service? The rumor on the streets of Damascus seems to be that the military will institute a mandatory draft, recruiting all fighting-aged men into the army. This new media blitz, with its religious framing, may be the initial step in clearing the way towards this move. The Globe and Mail has doubts as to whether this will be successful:

It’s unclear what the implementation of conscription would do for the regime militarily. As it stands, much of the government’s army has been consigned to barracks because soldiers cannot be trusted not to defect and join up with rebels. For the most part, it has been the army’s elite fourth brigade and Republican Guard divisions, as well as government militias, that have been loyally fighting on the government’s side.

What is interesting about the statement is that the Syrian government has prided itself as a secular ruling power. The type of Islamic language used to announce the decree will puzzle many not used to hearing such rhetoric on national television, and will also sideline non-Muslim Syrians.

And Michael Weiss raises a really good point, one that matches our own observations:

Desertions outnumber defections in the Syrian military, so if Bashar wants a draft, he'll need a dragnet first.
— michaeldweiss (@michaeldweiss) March 12, 2013

1436 GMT: Assad Launches "Jihad on Jihadists"? The Daily Star reports that the State Media has utilized religious leaders to call for support of President Bashar al Assad:

The highest official Sunni Muslim body in Syria, closely linked to the government, issued a religious decree on Sunday calling on Syrians to join the military, which it called both "a national and a religious duty".

The Dar al-Ifta council said members of the Syrian army "raise up the words of God in our beloved country" in their "defence and jihad for Syria."

"We appeal to all people in Syria to stand in one rank along with the Syrian Arab Army," the council said in a statement.

Meanwhile, there are reports that Syrian State Media has picked up this line of thinking (Note - we're contacting people in Damascus now to confirm these reports).

Syrian State TV is broadcasting jihadist chanting alongside footage of firing Scuds and long-distance missiles. fb.me/1BXqbSylD
— Syrian Scenes (@Syrian_Scenes) March 12, 2013

Snap - Analysis: As a reader reminds us on Twitter, the two year anniversary of the uprising is just around the corner, a symbolic event that the opposition is already planning on commemorating. This could be the regime's answer to this event.

As we pointed out yesterday, however, the rebels have won a string of victories in both southwest Damascus and Daraa province, many in the last several days alone. Also, rebel forces have made significant progress near Deir Ez Zor and in Al Raqqah, both major cities in the east. The regime offensive in Homs seemed like it was going to be successful last week, but over the weekend a rebel offensive reversed many of those gains. And in Aleppo, a major military convoy won a series of victories along the supply routes to the south, but while Assad's reinforcements may have halted or slowed the rebel advance, we have not seen any major territory recaptured by the regime.

So is this it? Is the regime panicking and readying for the fall of the capital?

Probably not. The events near Daraa and southwest Damascus are still murky, but it's not even clear if the regime put up significant resistance in the capture of several recent bases. Last week I argued that Assad is engaged in a strategy that trades the control of the countryside for control of the core of the country - Damascus, Homs, and the coast. Even that statement masks that within that area the majority of that strength is being concentrated in Damascus - specifically on the high ground that rings the capital. The primary goal appears to be to prevent a sudden military collapse. Furthermore, it appears as though defections are lower than they were last fall, and much lower than they were last summer. A more concentrated military is less prone to defections, and as long as there are rumors and reports of prisoner executions, like the one that happened last week, then there is less incentive to defect. Assad may have decided that this is the perfect time to call up the reservists to defend the capital city, a maneuver, and a gamble, that is premised on the idea that the outside world will not intervene militarily, and the capital will not fall.

The move will absolutely buy him time, perhaps a significant amount of time, but the premises of that gamble will soon be put to the test.

1400 GMT: Syria Calls Up Reservists. Yesterday various regime mouthpieces, from SANA News to some pro-regime clerics, started to lean on Syrians to support the war effort. Now, Rula Amin reports that there has been a formal escalation (hat tip to Ahmad Bhumi):

#SYRIA’S JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF DECLARES GENERAL MOBILIZATION AND RAISES MILITARY READINESS LEVEL IN DAMASCUS AND RECALL RESERVISTS
— Rula Amin (@RulaAmin) March 12, 2013

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting things started today.

1050 GMT: Refugees. A week after the number of Syrian refugees registered or awaiting registration passed 1,000,000, the UN records a 10% rise to 1,100,579.

Jordan has the highest number of refugees --- 340,252 --- with 339,137 in Lebanon and more than 258,000 in Turkey.

1043 GMT:Syrian Army Recruitment Drive. Syria’s grand mufti, Sheik Ahmad Badr al-Deen Hassoun, has issued a decree claiming that Government military forces need to increase the number of new recruits and may, for the first time during the conflict, resort to implementing compulsory service laws.

1036 GMT:Ukrainian Journalist Freed. The Ukraine Foreign Ministry has confirmed that journalist Anhar Kochneva is free, more than 150 days after being kidnapped.

Kochneva, who claimed to have been held captive by the Free Syrian Army before escaping by travelling 15km on foot to the nearest Syrian Army checkpoint, announced her freedom with the message “Your Alice has come back through the looking glass. More later."

Commenting that she intends to remain in Syria, Kochneva - who has written for Russian and Syrian newspapers as well as the Kremlin-run television channel Russia Today - said “The world is just blind....I will do everything for the people to know what is really going on here.”

1015 GMT: Weapons for Insurgents. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has urged the European Union to again consider thet lifting an arms embargo on Syria, allowing arms to reach insurgents.

However,German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle warned that the move could lead to a proliferation of weapons in the region and spark a proxy war.

0755 GMT: Displaced Persons. More than 85% of the Palestinians living in the Yarmouk camp in Damascus have been displaced, according to the commissioner general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

“Out of 150,000 Palestinians living in Yarmouk, 130,000 have been displaced,” Filippo Grandi said Monday. “Only 20,000 [Palestinians] remain and are trapped in the area amid fighting between the opposition and government forces.”

Grandi continued:

Unlike Syrians, they have limited options. Jordan has stated it does not want more Palestinian refugees. They took about 5,000 and now have a population of about 2 million Palestinians.

One way open to Palestinians for escape is to [flee] to Lebanon, where life for Palestinian refugees is already difficult, also where 32,000 have fled.

0745 GMT: Detentions in Border Bomb Attack. Turkish officials say they have detained five suspects --- four Syrians and one Turkish --- over last month's bomb at a border crossing that killed 14 people.

Two of the detainees allegedly staged the attack, at the crossing to Turkey's Hatay Province, while the other three are accusing of aiding and abetting.

Officials claims the suspects have revealed that they got paid $35,000 by people connected to Syria’s intelligence agency.

0615 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees claim 121 people were killed on Monday, including 36 in Damascus and its suburbs, 31 in Aleppo Province, 17 in Homs Province, and 14 each in Deir Ez Zor and Daraa Provinces.

The Violations Documentation Center records 52,157 deaths since the start of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 118 from Monday. Of the dead, 42.077 were civilians, an increase of 83 from yesterday.

0605 GMT: River of Martyrs. Monday brought a juxtaposition which highlighted the bloodshed and uncertainty in the two-year Syrian conflict. Moments after posting a report of the bodies of 22 men being pulled from the Quweig River near Aleppo, I saw The Guardian's investigation --- soon posted as a separate EA Feature --- of the 110 dead who were found in the river in late January.

The Guardian's vivid report indicated, from interviews with relatives of the dead and other residents of the villages where they lived, that regime forces had executed the men. However, it was not definitive, nor could responsibility be placed for the 22 victims discovered on Monday.

The only certainty was a brief but telling line in the Al Jazeera report that the incidents, while striking for the number of dead, are far from exceptional. The "River of Martyrs", more a stream by the time it approaches Syria's largest city, has yielded several bodies on most days since late January.

So it proved on Monday --- 12 more dead were taken from the Quweig.