Ghassan Hitto, the new Syrian National Coalition Prime Minister-designate, addressing a rally in Texas last September
2050 GMT: Rebels Advance in Southeast Damascus. Not far from the site of the other reported chemical weapons attack in Otaybah, the rebels are engaged in an assault on the Conference Hall and Palace near the Damascus International Airport (map). This video reportedly shows smoke rising from the Palace as the result of rebel attacks. Other videos show the rebels launching weapons at the target:
This weekend, rebels pushed closer and closer to the airport. Furthermore, with this weekend's advances the rebels are closer to full control over all the bases east of Damascus. Meanwhile, rebels appear to be advancing deeper into the Jobar and Al Maamouniyeh districts of east-central Damascus (map). In the west, the rebels have continued to rebuff the regime's attacks against Darayya, and are edging towards key bases further to the southwest. Remarkably, the regime has not yet pushed this most recent wave of rebel advances back.
There's still no definitive word on the chemical attacks, but with the rebels pressing the heart of the regime, and civilian death tolls mounting, the headlines in the capital may be masking the most important developments.
2030 GMT: US Politicians Call for No Fly Zone. Admiral James Stavridis, the Supreme Allied Commander, said that NATO was discussing attacking Assad's defenses from the air. After the hearing, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, a Democrat, directly called for a no fly zone.
After the hearing, Levin directly endorsed the idea of attacking Syrian air defenses and using the Patriot missile batteries in Turkey to establish a no-fly zone inside Syria in an interview with The Cable.
"I believe there should be the next ratcheting up of military effort and that would include going after some of Syria's air defenses," Levin said.
Regarding the establishment of a no-fly zone inside Syria, Levin said that would help both protect innocent civilians and speed the end of the conflict.
"You could protect that kind of a zone with these Patriot missiles, leaving the missiles in Turkey but having the zone inside the Syrian border," he said. "It is a way without putting boots on the ground and in a way that would be fairly cautious, that would put additional pressure on Assad and also create a zone where Syrian people who are looking for protection and safety could come without crossing the border and becoming refugees."
Few senior American politicians have called for such a move, and the idea appears to have bipartisan support, with Republican John McCain pushing for stronger action and many republicans branding chemicals weapons as a red line.
Get ready for this topic to explode in the American political dialogue.
Thanks to Michael Weiss for pointing out this development.
2012 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the activist network, the Local Coordination Committees, 100 people have been killed so far today across Syria:
40 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs; 20 in Aleppo; 10 in Deir Ezzor; 7 in Idlib; 7 in Hama; 5 in Daraa; 4 in Raqqa; 4 in Homs; 2 in Lattakia; and 1 in Quneitra.
The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) is an activist network operating both inside and outside of Syria. They claim to use stringent verification processes to ensure that a member of the LCC can vouch for any information posted either on their Facebook page or their website. The LCC also populates a database of those killed in the Syrian conflict, which can be seen at the website for the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria.
The LCC's casualty figures are often a mix of insurgents and civilians, and never include regime casualties. Syrian State Media has stopped reporting regime casualty figures.
Also see our description of the Local Coordination Committees and how we utilize their reports in the Columbia Journalism Review.
1958 GMT: Rebels Press Attack on Aleppo. The alleged chemical weapons incidents may have gotten everyone's attention, but the Syrian rebels didn't miss a beat today. In the southwest of Aleppo, near the attack site in Khan al Assal, rebels continued to press their attack toward the Artillery College in the southwestern district of the provincial capital. This video, uploaded today, reportedly shows rebel artillery targeting the Assad base:
1807 GMT: No Smoking Gun in Aleppo Either. We haven't found any definitive evidence that could solve today's riddle in Damascus, bu the evidence in Aleppo things are not any better. Videos posted over the last several days show the rebels pressing the attack and the town hit by shells and airstrikes - but no signs of Scud attacks, and no signs of a car bombing or other improvised attack that could deliver any chemical agents.
This video shows the damage in the town, but it is likely the result of continuous bombing and/or shelling, possibly by a variety of weapons:
But Storyful's Felim McMahon has also been investigating these reports, and he has discovered that the opposition, not the regime, first broke this news:
Hours before state media claims, activists reported dozens hospitalised after inhaling 'unknown gas' in Khan al-Asal facebook.com/AkhbarHlbAlan/…
— Félim McMahon (@felimmcmahon) March 19, 2013
Furthermore, there are many reports that aircraft delivered these weapons. As of now, we have not seen a single report of an improvised explosive or a car bomb. If the Syrian military is not ultimately responsible for releasing these gases, then how could the gas be dispersed?
There's another thing to keep in mind - the in either location gas does not appear to be particularly concentrated or weaponized. We know this because there would be severe cases of either burns or intense neurological effects which have not been seen. This means the gas would have to be in fairly significant quantities to affect this many people. A large explosion would likely be needed, and the only reports of large explosions in both locations that we have seen appear to claim that airstrikes, or possibly a large surface-to-surface rocket, are the causes.
There remains a possibility, as we've stated, that an explosion hit chemicals that were already present on the ground, but as there has only been one similar incident of this in the entire history of the conflict, and these incidents happened at nearly the same time, what's the probability that this is a coincidence?
1735 GMT: Rebel Advances Near "Chemical Weapon Attack" in Damascus. Yesterday, Syrian rebels claimed that they won a base near Otaybeh, the area where residents say they've been hit by chemical weapons today (see updates below). Here is a summary from an opposition Facebook page:
Yesterday, the Free Syrian Army liberated Battalion 16 located between Al Atebeh and Al Dumair and bravely fought back the regime's forces' attempts to invade the area. Since the liberation, the regime's forces have been hammering the city with shells and rockets since yesterday as more than 100 shells/rockets fell on Al Atebeh town, forcing up to 15,000 residents and displaced civilians from nearby towns (about 90% of the people in the town) to flee the area and seek refuge in nearby towns. Many sought refuge in schools as well, such as this school in Al Nashabyeh, in which many displaced civilians sought refuge in; it got targeted by airstrikes yesterday too, deliberately attempting to harm and kill the women and children inside. Consequently, many children got wounded.
Today, the regime's forces stationed in the 3rd division and in other bases have been heavily bombarding Al Atebeh town using artillery shells and rockets with heads containing toxic materials (still unknown yet) that caused many cases of suffocation amongst civilians. Reports say there are martyrs but nothing has been confirmed yet. More details must be reported soon, but videos have been uploaded, showing some of the cases of suffocation and other symptoms, such as extreme difficulty in breathing and very low blood pressure.
We have not confirmed the fall of the base, however there were reports of this rebel victory posted on social media yesterday.
Other reports from the opposition claim that a SCUD missile delivered this weapon.
As of now, however, evidence supporting any narrative is hard to come by.
1710 GMT: Homemade Weapons? As we've pointed out below, the attacks are not characteristic of a weaponized chemical attack. However, some rebel groups have conducted asymmetrical warfare in the past, and the Assad regime is utilizing "shabiha" militias more often as its own armed forces dwindle, so could a homemade weapon do this?
Absolutely, is the short answer. Unsophisticated chlorine attacks have been used in Iraq, as trucks and cars filled with explosives and chlorine canisters are blown up. Pesticides or other chemicals could be used similarly. The problem is that there has to be a car bomb in order to disperse these weapons in a car bombing. We're still investigating this aspect as well, but so far there's no evidence that there was a bombing like this.
We do know, however, that Otaybah, east of Damascus, has been heavily attacked by rockets and airstrikes over the last few days, according to residents. Take this video, reportedly taken about two nights ago. The regularity of the explosions suggests that some sort rocket attack, like a Grad or a Type-63 multiple-rocket launcher. A second video shows the same thing from a different angle:
Another video, taken today, reportedly shows damage from airstrikes. A video posted yesterday shows a deep impact crater, reportedly the result of an airstrike.
We've seen or heard of no sign of an improvised explosion or car bomb yet. The mystery continues.
1645 GMT: Could the Rebels Do This? The Assad regime and the Russians have accused the rebels of conducting these attacks. First, there has been a response from Washington.
Responding to claims by the Syrian government and its ally Russia, White House spokesman Jay Carney said the United States has "no evidence to substantiate the charge that the opposition has used chemical weapons."
This is not a surprise. Washington always blames the regime, the regime and Russia always blame the opposition. But what of the facts on the ground?
We've collected videos of the victims of the attack. All of the videos we'll link to may be disturbing to some readers.
In December there was a claimed chemical weapons attack in Homs. After the attack, the United States leaked that it had proof that Assad committed the attack. We assessed the conditions of the victims, and compared them to known symptoms of chemical weapons attacks. The conclusion was that the victims appear to have inhaled something toxic, but that it was not a nerve agent.
More videos show the victims of the Otaybah attack in eastern Damascus. In the first video, the man appears to be alive, but is intubated. He's not moving much. The second video is far more informative. The victim appears to be awake and alert, and may even be heard speaking. This does not match the characteristic of a nerve agent. His lungs have clearly been affected, but he shows no other sign of impairment. These two videos are very similar to many of the videos from the Homs incident:
A third video shows something similar. The man is perhaps more affected than the last man, and may be having troubles breathing as he has a breath mask, but there are no twitches or other involuntary movements. Again, it doesn't match the characteristics of a fast-acting and highly deadly nerve agent.
In the 4th video we hear from one of the doctors who is treating the victims. The doctor says that one suspect is an "Organophosphate." The symptoms include suffocation, fascicular contractions, bradycardia and severe hypotension. He is treating them with atropine.
This is a different theory. Organophosphates are in the same category as nerve gases like sarin. However, weaponized gases like saring would have likelyy killed hundreds in each location and have much more severe results.
We've consulted many experts, and the problem is also that chlorine, in high doses, would leave extreme effects such as blisters, and we see none of that.
This video was broadcast by Syrian State TV. It reportedly shows the victims in Aleppo who show similar affects as to those in Damascus. Though there is very limited evidence, both incidents appear to share similarities with the Homs incident when one compares symptoms, severity of the effects, and the number of injured and dead. None of the incidents mirrors what we would see in a sarin or vx nerv agent attack or in a weaponized chlorine attack.
Thanks to Zilal for help on the translation.
Al Jazeera speaks to a doctor:
Haddad believes the victims were exposed to organic pesticides and not chemical weapons, like Sarin and VX nerve agents.
"Victims spoke of pungent smell. Chemical weapons are usually odourless."
“Moreover , the number of deaths is small compared to those who would have died had chemical weapons been used." He estimates that 25 people have been killed in the attack in Khan al-Assal.
Haddad said the casualties included Syrian regime soldiers and pro- Assad armed men from the Zaarour family.
If these attacks didn't happen at the same time, we'd think that this was an accident - perhaps the result of a shell hitting chemicals that were used for industrial purposes, for instance. The coincidence, however, suggests something else.
The investigation continues.
1550 GMT: Chlorine Gas. A Reuters photographer who is in Aleppo also suggests that the injuries may be the result of chlorine gas:
"I saw mostly women and children," he said. "They said that people were suffocating in the streets and the air smelt strongly of chlorine."
"People were dying in the streets and in their houses," he said over the phone after visiting the University of Aleppo hospital and the al-Rajaa hospital.
We are conducting our own analysis of the victims (coming in the next few minutes) and it also suggests that a gas like chlorine was responsible. Our assessment is that, based on videos of the victims, a nerve agent is highly unlikely.
1525 GMT: Chemical Attacks in Two Locations. During the winter, a report surfaced that a single neighborhood in Homs had suffered a chemical weapons attack. The investigations into the identity of the gas were inconclusive - chlorine gas was one leading suspect. There remained a remote possibility, however, that a traditional shell could have hit a storehouse of chemicals, or an incendiary weapon could have hit something that is highly toxic when burning. The understanding of what exactly happened in Homs is very cloudy at best.
Today, however, these possibilities are far more remote, because we have reports in two locations - Aleppo and Damascus - suggesting that this was a coordinated attack.
We've been in touch with activists in Aleppo. They're scared, and that's saying something. The people who have stayed in Aleppo are pretty resilient, and are used to the constant threat of injury, arrest, or death.
We're trying to sort all the reports. Below is a summary provided by the Aleppo Media Centre, a group of activists who serve as oppositions spokespeople in what was once Syria's largest city. It provides their reports on the claimed chemical weapons attacks, and some slightly broader context:
Activists in Damascus and Aleppo say that the regime used chemical weapons in khan Al Asal in Aleppo and in Al Atebah in the eastern countryside of Damascus. This video is from Al Atebah.
In the other side, the Syrian TV mentioned that FSA shelled khan Al Asal by chemical weapons and killed 16 civilians and 10s injured. And the Press minister said that they will send this case to the human rights organizations against the countries supporting the opposition.
According to activists in Aleppo, the regime shelled Police School taken by the opposition by a scud, but by mistake the scud fell on an area controlled by the regime.
Let's look at where these locations are. Al Otaybah, in rural Damascus (map), is east of the city, and it has been in rebel control for a very long time. Furthermore, Assad bases to the north, in Adra, are under attack, and it is from this area in East Ghouta that the rebels are leading their charge into the heart of Damascus. The area is constantly under regime air and artillery attack.
Otaybah is not particularly noteworthy as it is not of military, geographical, or symbolic importance. It is, however, in the heart of rebel-held eastern Damascus, and it is far enough away from the center of the capital so that the area of effect could not spread very far.
In Aleppo, Khan al Asal is different. It is a district on the western edge of Aleppo (map), the front lines of battle where a major cohort of rebels are marching against some of Assad's most hardened bases. Last month the Police Academy here fell to the rebels, but that was only the beginning. The rebels, equipped with tanks, artillery, and other weapons captured from several major regime bases, are pressing their attack against Assad's artillery academy and other military installations that constitute the major strongholds of the regime in southwest Aleppo. Without these bases, the city will fall to the rebels.
This are has also been routinely hammered by Assad's artillery and airstrikes.
Motive is a primary question here. Why attack these sites now? With rebels on the advance in both locations, and with today's news of the appointment of a new opposition Prime Minister, who thinks that they can benefit from today's attacks?
James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us through the afternoon today. We'll watch these developments very carefully.
1335 GMT: A Chemical Attack? As the Minister of Information claims 16 people were killed and 86 wounded by an insurgent chemical attack in Aleppo Province, State news agency SANA posts pictures:
1135 GMT: A Chemical Attack? State media's claim of a chemical attack by insurgents, killing 15 people in Aleppo Province, is opening up a more complicated story.
Hours before the report by State news agency SANA, activists reported that dozens of people were hospitalised after inhaling an "unknown gas" in Khan al-Asal. The village was taken three weeks ago by the opposition and has been shelled by the regime since then --- activists are arguing that this morning's attack must have been by Assad forces, given that insurgents would not launch a chemical assault on their own territory.
Meanwhile, the opposition Local Coordination Committees is claiming that a regime chemical weapon attack on the town of Atiba, near Damascus killed three people and wounded several others.
Video showed claimed victims struggling to breathe.
1025 GMT: Regime Claims Insurgent Use of Chemical Weapons. State news agency SANA has claimed the use of chemical weapons by insurgents, killing 15 in an attack in Aleppo Province.
"Terrorists fired a rocket containing chemical substances in the Khan al-Assal area of rural Aleppo and initial reports indicate that around 15 people were killed, most of them civilians," the agency asserted.
0645 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees claim 128 people were killed on Monday, including 46 in Damascus and its suburbs; 36 in Aleppo Province, and 19 in Homs Province.
The Violations Documentation Center records 53,119 deaths since the start of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 239 from Tuesday. Of the dead, 42,643 were civilians, an increase of 116 from yesterday.
0545 GMT: An Opposition Prime Minister. The Syrian National Coalition, meeting in Istanbul, has named IT manager and Islamic activist Ghassan Hitto to head an interim Government in insurgent-held areas.
Hitto received 35 votes out of 48 votes cast by the 63 Coalition members.
He said he would give a speech today outlining his plans for the interim Government.
Little known inside Syria, the activist had lived in the US for decades, recently moving from Texas to Turkey to help co-ordinate aid to the insurgent-controlled parts of Syria.
Last October J. David Goodman of The New York Times profiled Hitto's son Obeida, who deferred plans for law school and travelled from the US to help the insurgency with media efforts:
Mr. Hitto, who has extended family in Damascus, has spent five months posting videos and photographs from Deir al-Zour, sometimes very near the fighting, many marked by billowing plumes of thick smoke, the clack of gunfire and narrations that shake with an activist’s conviction and anger, delivered in an American accent. “All around us there is shooting,” he said in an Aug. 1 clip of a burning building. “The world seems to not care.”