Syria Live Coverage: Trading Blame Over "Chemical Attacks"

See Also Syria Special: Assessing Tuesday's "Chemical Weapons Attacks"...and Who is Responsible
Tuesday's Syria Live Coverage: Opposition Coalition Names Ghassan Hitto as Prime Minister
Today's Israel (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Obama Pays A Visit

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1940 GMT: Rebels Capture Mosque in Center of Daraa. The Omari Mosque has been captured by the Syrian rebels who continue to push deeper and deeper into the center of Damascus (map).

Al-Omari mosque in #Daraa has be librated. It is the cradle of the revolution #Syria youtube.com/watch?feature=…

— SND - Support Syria (@sndlifesyria) March 20, 2013

#Syria #Daraa Rebels recaptured Omari Mosque- a symbol of the revolutionyoutube.com/watch?v=iTrfJP… wikimapia.org/#lat=32.612336…

— Mark (@markito0171) March 20, 2013

1848 GMT: Press Conference. The first question is about Syria, specifically about yesterday's attack. Obama said that he intends to investigate yesterday's incident, but that it is important to know exactly what happened. He said that his team is investigating "whether or not this 'red line' has been crossed." He said that some in Assad's government not only have these weapons but have expressed the desire to use these weapons if they are threatened, and he said that he is deeply skeptical of claims that the rebels used chemical weapons.

There will be no announcement today about "next steps."

Obama appears to be flushing out the red line. The international community "has to act" if chemical weapons are used.

Obama then stressed that he has supported the opposition, has provided humanitarian aid, and has isolated the Assad regime geopolitically. He stressed the need to deal with Syria as an international coalition because the Syrian crisis is a "world problem."

"We will continue to push every lever that we have to try to bring about a resolution inside of Syria."

1839 GMT: Press Conference. Obama's turn. First, jokes about how ugly he and Netanyahu are. Next, Obama praised "Bibi" on their tenth meeting, reiterating the alliance between the US and Israel. Security is defined as the primary purpose for both of their governments.

President Obama discussed extending military assistance for Israel, stressing that "Iron Dome" is a priority. A two state solution was also set as a priority. The West Bank's security situation was praised in particular, as last year was the first in a decade that no Israeli citizens were killed by strikes from there.

Then Syria - the US is working to "hasten the end of Bashar al Assad." Obama said that every "conventional weapon" has been used, including Scuds, and he said he shared his concern about the movement of chemical weapons.

No mention of yesterday's attacks.

Iran was defined as a "potential existential threat" to Israel, and stressed that diplomacy was the preferred way to end the crisis. "All options are on the table."

1836 GMT: Press Conference. Netanyahu started by thanking Obama for support in light of Iran's nuclear program. "Diplomacy and sanctions so far have not stopped Iran's nuclear program," Netanyahu began, adding that the threat of military action is crucial in making these other means work.

He also stressed that Israel has the right and capability to defend itself.

Netanyahu then moved on to Syria. He stressed the suffering and death, and said he shared Obama's determination to ensure that the "deadly arsenal of chemical weapons do not fall into the wrong hands." Netanyahu then reiterated the desire for peace with Palestine and the establishment of a two-state solution.

His opening comments are summary. We'll see if things get interesting soon.

1835 GMT: Obama and Netanyahu Speak. You can watch the live press conference from Israel here. Obama and Netanyahu are speaking now.

1801 GMT: Regime Calls for Investigation. Al Jazeera English reports that the regime has called for an investigation into the alleged chemical weapons attacks yesterday:

State news agency SANA quoted the foreign ministry on Wednesday as saying "the government of the Syrian Arab Republic has requested that the secretary general of the United Nations form a specialist technical mission that is independent and impartial to investigate the terrorist use of chemical weapons in Khan al-Assal".

Earlier, the opposition demanded an international investigation as well.

1740 GMT: Obama to Address Chemical Weapons Use. According to journalist Ilhan Tanir, US President Barack Obama will address the reported use of chemical weapons in Syria at a press conference in Israel:

WHouse sent me this re #CW usage in Syria:"The President will address the topic in his press conference w/PM Netanyahu tonight." @jmiller_ea

— ilhan tanir (@WashingtonPoint) March 20, 2013

This could provide the clearest insight into the current US thinking. So far, high-profile leaders from Ambassador Ford to Representative Mike Rogers have been sending mixed signals on whether chemical weapons were used and on whether the US should prepare a military option.

1640 GMT: US on Path to War?

Republican Representative Mike Rogers, Chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and his senate colleague Diane Feinstein, Chairman of the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, have both hinted that they believe Assad used chemical weapons yesterday. Representative Rogers said that there was a "high probability" of the use of such weapons, but all that remained was the final forensic investigation.

Perhaps more importantly, both appear to be suggesting that a military response could be on the table:

Thanks to the Syrian Assistance blog for posting this video first.

Yesterday, Senator Carl Levin, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, pushed for a no-fly zone and the direct bombing of Assad's forces on the ground. NATO's Admiral James Stavridis, the Supreme Allied Commander, said that an attack on Assad was possible and would cripple the regime.

It sure sounds like Washington is marching towards war.

As an aside, it's really quite remarkable that an administration that has been so reluctant to get involved in Syria militarily would be dragged into the conflict due to an incident with such hazy details as yesterday's incidents.

Perhaps that alone is reason enough to not over-hype these statements. However, all eyes will be on Barack Obama as he visits Israel. His statements over the next few days may signal whether the administration is moving towards military action, or whether they are likely to downplay these reports. So far, White House spokseman Jay Carney has been far more cautious and skeptical in his comments on the chemical incidents than Mike Rogers.

1635 GMT: Rebels Attack Air Force Intel HQ. There are many reports that the rebels are attacking the Airforce Intelligence Headquarters in Harasta, in eastern Damascus (map). Since this morning the claims have been that the rebels are pounding the base with mortars. Now, this video reportedly shows the rebel attack against the base, one of the key pockets of Assad's military strength remaining in the Harasta area:

1535 GMT: Speculation Update. Two opposing theories, both presented by important sources. The first comes from a journalist who covers Israel and the Middle East:

RT @orenkessler: Israeli security officials believe Syrian rebels used sarin gas against soldiers yesterday, killing 26 (Yediot)

— DavidKenner (@DavidKenner) March 20, 2013

None of the experts we've spoken to agree with this theory based on the evidence that we witnessed. EA consulted both doctors and arms specialists, and we're fairly convinced that this attack does not have any of the hallmarks of a sarin or VX gas attack.

The second update comes from an American official, via the Associated Press:

The U.S. ambassador to Syria said Wednesday the Obama administration has no evidence to support President Bashar Assad's claims that U.S.-backed rebels used chemical weapons in northern Syria, but is looking carefully at the conflicting reports.

"So far we have no evidence to substantiate the reports that chemical weapons were used yesterday," Robert Ford told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He later added that the administration was extremely concerned and trying to verify reports that such weapons were used in the Aleppo province and the Damascus suburbs.

The administration on Tuesday disputed Assad's claim, and a U.S. official said there was no evidence that either Assad's forces or the opposition had used chemical weapons in an attack.

One of the leading theories is that there was no chemical attack. Toxic fumes from rocket fuel, or chemicals in containers on the ground that were hit by explosives, or any number of "non-weapon" scenarios present the neatest theory. These incidents do not fit the profile of chemical weapons attacks. However, there remains the problem that the two incidents occurred at the same time. That's an incredible coincidence. If the reports happened many hours apart, or even several days, one could chalk the reports up to panic. In fact, today there are many reports of chemical weapons use, though none of them have been substantiated. Fear breeds panic and rumor. However, these incidents were nearly concurrent - so the panic theory doesn't adequately answer this mystery either.

1452 GMT: Battles Near Otaybah, Damascus. Yesterday, there was heavy fighting on the outskirts of Otaybah. According to multiple reports, the regime sent tanks, and shabiha, to the village, but they did not manage to enter.

Otaybah, east of Damascus (map), would not be noteworthy, except that it was also the site of one of yesterday's claimed chemical weapons attacks.

This first video is interesting. It reportedly shows shabiha occupying the buildings in the background, while the rebels inside the building line up to attack:

This video appears to show the aftermath of one of the battles:

1357 GMT: Opposition Condemns Chemical Attack. The National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, the opposition's main governing body, has condemned yesterday's attacks and blamed the regime for the incidents:

The Assad regime’s crimes against the Syrian people continue. The latest attacks occurred today, March 19th 2013, in two locations: Khan Asal in Aleppo and Ataybah, in rural Damascus. The attacks killed at least nineteen civilians and injured and suffocated at least 69 others, who are currently in critical condition.

The Syrian Coalition condemns these attacks and holds the Assad regime fully responsible for shedding Syrian blood. The Coalition demands a full international investigation, and asks for a delegation to be sent to inquire and visit the site. The Coalition would like all parties and individuals involved in this reprehensible crime to be brought to justice, in addition to investigating all the other crimes that have been inflicted on the Syrian people.

The statement is interesting. It places the death toll far lower than yesterday's state media reports. It also asks for outside investigations - if Assad refuses to agree to such an investigation, he'll look even more guilty than he currently does. Furthermore, if a rebel group conducted this attack, then this may be a significant wedge between that group and the National Coalition.

We should remind readers that there are no definitive answers yet as to what chemical may have caused yesterday's injuries and deaths, or as to who is responsible. We've posted a separate assessment of the top four theories. So far, the best criticism of that analysis is that there is evidence that the rebels may have access to chlorine. However, such chemical weapons would need to be dispersed by some mechanism, and in the improvised chemical attacks we're aware of, the dispersal mechanism is always an explosion, usually a car bomb. Some have also questioned whether the rebels have surface-to-surface weapons that could disperse chemicals, except that there is no evidence that they possess these, and even if they did their presence would show up on Assad's own radar. As of yet, the Syrian government has not explained how the chemical attacks were conducted - the only details there are coming from the opposition.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started today.

1240 GMT: Israel. An Israeli military spokesman said that four people wounded in the fighting in Syria had been brought to the border with Israel. Two of them were treated on the spot and two were taken in a critical condition to Rambam Hospital in Haifa "for humanitarian reasons".

About a month ago, seven wounded Syrians were treated in the Ziv hospital in Zefat.

0610 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees claim 131 people were killed on Tuesday, including 46 in Damascus and its suburbs and 41 in Aleppo Province.

The Violations Documentation Center records 53,323 deaths since the start of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 204 from Tuesday. Of the dead, 42,803 were civilians, an increase of 160 from yesterday.

0550 GMT: "Chemical Attacks". Tuesday's news was dominated by news of possible chemical attacks in Khan al Asal, west of Aleppo, and in the East Ghouta area near Damascus.

The regime claimed that 31 people --- 21 civilians and 10 soldiers --- were killed in the Khan al Asal, blaming insurgents. The opposition alleged that the Syrian military had carried out the deadly assault, and also said that President Assad's forces had used chemicals in Al Otaiba in East Ghouta.

While claims of responsibility are traded, the cause of the deaths --- and even if chemical weapons were involved --- is still unclear. Ziad Haddad, a medic in Aleppo, said the victims --- struggled to breathe and with constricted pupils ---  seemed to have been exposed to organic pesticides and not chemical agents.

So what did happen, and can blame be assigned? EA's James Miller goes through the available evidence in a Syria Special this morning.