2001 GMT: Fighting East of Damascus. It's been several days since the pro-Assad media claimed that regime forces had the East Ghouta region of Damascus completely surrounded. However, that statement is not any truer today than when it was first made. Despite attacks by Assad tanks and armor, and the continuous bombardment by artillery, rockets, and airstrikes, the front lines have barely moved in days.
One area that has put up particularly stiff resistance over the last three weeks is Otaybah, east of Damascus. Rebels have been able to defeat Assad's forces at a nearby base, and redress Assad's advances against the town. We've posted various videos of BMPs and tanks destroyed around the town, but this is reportedly the scene in a single street:
#Syria #Damascus Picture of tank-convoy -destroyed by rebels in #Otaybah 10km east of Int. Airport twitpic.com/cij816
— Mark (@markito0171) April 11, 2013
1953 GMT: Rising Death Toll. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 90 people have been killed so far today nationwide:
25 martyrs in both Homs and Aleppo; 23 martyrs in Damascus and its Suburbs; 8 martyrs in Hama; 4 martyrs in Daraa; 2 martyrs each in Latakia and Idlib; and 1 martyr in Deir Ezzor
See our note about the casualty figures published by the LCC.
1811 GMT: Key Islamist Brigades Denounce Jabhat Al Nusra's Connections to ISI. There are many misconceptions about Jabhat al Nusra's connection to Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), and also other Islamists operating inside Syria. We've addressed some of those misconceptions in a separate analysis:
See also Syria Special: The Media Creates the "Al Qa'eda Myth"
However, one point that needs to be stressed is that most Islamists operating inside Syria have deliberately distanced themselves from both Jabhat al Nusra and key regional Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda and ISI.
Digging deeper into statements made by Jabhat al Nusra's leader, Mohadem al-Jawlani, we see that a careful distinction was made yesterday to associate the group with al-Zawahiri, an ideologue who is more of a legend than a leader, and ISI's leadership in Iraq which could supplant the goals of the Syrian jihadis.
I also mentioned that other Islamist groups have been disquieted by some of Jabhat al Nusra's methods, including suicide bombing, their resistance to the more moderate viewpoints of the secular Free Syrian Army groups, and the ties to foreign terrorist organizations.
Syrian journalist Hassan Hassan has discovered, translated, and analyzed statements by two major Islamist groups, Liwa al-Islam and the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front. Both groups have condemned Al Qaeda, as well as Jabhat al Nusra's affiliation with ISI, if any affiliation exists:
Liwa Al Islam says the statement about merging Jabhat al-Nusra with Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) is a dangerous move that will play into the hands of Bashar Al Assad and lead to foreign intervention in Syria. The group insinuates that it will stand by Jabhat al Nusra but it rejects any foreign ties and agendas (but then it justifies this by saying 'because that would open the doors for their enemies to intervene'). The purpose of the statement is unclear, as the group does not distance itself from Jabhat al-Nusra, even affirms that it will continue to fight alongside 'anyone who carries the banners of Monotheism' - Salafi groups - and it emphasises that the statement is counterproductive.
Syrian Islamic Liberation Front is clear in the statement, unequivocally rejecting the statement from Iraq's Al Qaeda. But it emphasises rejection of any subordination of Syrian Islamist groups to foreign leaders or entities. This confirms my early assessment that Syrian jihadists would reject subordination to Iraq's Al Qaeda. I said in this post: "Even if the statement represents some people within Jabhat al-Nusra, I personally doubt that Syrian jihadists would accept subordination to the Iraqi Al Qaeda".
A British analyst and terrorism specialist has this take:
More than anything, today's statements from Liwa al-Islam & SLF seem to focus on rejecting a foreign influence on a Syrian Islamist battle.
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) April 11, 2013
Both statements suggest/state they will continue to fight alongside JN; negative aspects of statement entirely focused on external concerns.
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) April 11, 2013
1558 GMT: Massacre Prompted by Defections? Yesterday we reported that the Syrian army had stormed a town on the highway between Darayya and Daraa, killing more than 40 civilians in the process. Today, Al Jazeera English, which says as many as 57 people may have been killed, reports that the attack may have been prompted by fresh defections
:Al Jazeera's Bernard Smith, reporting from Istanbul in neighbouring Turkey, said the reported 45 people killed in Sanamin, roughtly 50km south of Damascus, was precipitated by a rash of defections by members of the Syrian army.
"So, a day later, the Syrian army had gone into this area to try and find these soldiers, perhaps try and kill them to stop them from giving intelligence to the opposition but also as a warning, to ... [other] soldiers, that if they consider defection, then this is what's going to happen to them," he said.
"But of course, as we see on daily basis, caught up in these battles are civilians as well."
Caught up in the battle? This is a fair disclaimer, as the claims from Sanamayn have yet to but fully verified, and we'd second the sentiment that we don't yet understand what happened in this town. However, we're also reminded of today's Human Rights Watch report which is pretty clear on the matter - in incidents they have studied, civilians have not been killed as collateral damage in battles, but have been deliberately targeted.
It's also worth noting that the claims of those reporting this incident are very specific - many who were killed were summarily executed. We'll see if evidence can corroborate those claims, but if they can then this would eliminate the "caught up in battle" theory.
1418 GMT: Rebels Shoot Down Helicopter. Multiple sources and several news agencies are carrying this video (warning, it is occasionally graphic), which reportedly shows a helicopter shot down over Ma'arat al Nouman:
One interesting feature of the video - there is a single parachute present among the wreckage. Also, then men do not appear to be in uniform, or at least not in the uniforms we're used to seeing Syrian combat pilots wear. There is a theory that this helicopter may have been delivering supplies to one of two besieged Assad bases nearby, and the parachute could have been used to drop goods. The regime has been known to fly civilian airliners into besieged airports to deliver goods, and the regime is running extremely low on military helicopters and helicopter pilots, so it is possible that this helicopter was flown by civilians to deliver supplies.
We're still working to ID the wreckage of the aircraft.
1355 GMT: Syrian TV Denies, then Confirms, Al-Bouti Video. Several days ago, a video began to circulate that appeared to show the assassination of Sheikh Mohamed al-Bouti inside the Iman mosque in the heart of Damascus. We extensively analyzed that video just one day ago. We noted that some things were clear about that video, but that many mysteries remained.
According to Syrian State TV, the video was faked, fabricated by those who wished to discredit the regime.
Also, according to State TV, that video is real.
One day after denying the authenticity of the video, the same State TV presenter admitted that the video was genuine. Syrian journalist Hassan Hassan has detailed the reversal on his own blog, an article which is a must-read for those curious about this story.
One key detail, and likely the reason for the reversal, is that the notorious "man in black," the man who may, or may not, have helped kill al-Bouti, is, according to State TV, the grandson of al-Bouti, Ahmed, the son of Sheikh Mohammed Tawfiq Al Bouti, Sheikh Mohamed al-Bouti's son.In an interview, Mohammed Tawfiq al-Bouti, confirmed the video and many of the details therein.
So now there are more questions:
We'll try to update our analysis soon to try to answer some of these questions.
1336 GMT: Al Qaeda Myths and Regime Airstrikes. Today we have published two separate features. The first features an interview with a reporter from Human Rights Watch who helped create today's report that defines Assad's airstrikes are unlawful war crimes. The second feature is a redress of the media's mistakes when it comes to the discussion of Al Qaeda's relationship with Jabhat al Nusra, mistakes that have grown worse since yesterday's developments.
James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started this morning.
1103 GMT: Lebanon Border. Syrian military helicopters fired five missiles on Wednesday evening on the Lebanese region of al-Ajram near the border town of Arsal, Lebanon's National News Agency said.
The agency reported that shells fired from the Syrian side of the border landed in Akkar's Dababiyeh and al-Kawashira regions, causing damage in a poultry farm.
Syrian forces have fired missiles near Arsal in recent weeks amid fighting for control of villages just inside Syria.
0851 GMT: Refugees. AFP reports on the influx of refugees into largely-Kurdish towns in northern Syria:
In recent weeks, residents of Afrin have seen their quiet Syrian town transformed, with the arrival of thousands of people displaced by fighting in previously calm Kurdish parts of the city of Aleppo.
"I never thought it would happen to us," said Nisrine, a 25-year-old woman who fled to Afrin, a mostly-Kurdish town 40 kilometers from Aleppo, in northern Syria.
"We were getting on with our lives and then all of a sudden we had to flee with just the clothes on our backs," she said.
Nisrine now lives in a classroom with her husband, son, parents-in-law and survives only thanks to food aid given by the Supreme Kurdish Council, the umbrella organization for Kurdish political parties in Syria.
These Syrian Kurds took the road to Afrin without a second thought because "it is the only safe place, and we are among our own people," said the head of a family housed in one of Afrin's 17 schools hastily converted into makeshift camps.
0835 GMT: Insurgents and "Al Qa'eda in Iraq". McClatchy is the latest news service to jump onto the myth of Al Qa'eda leading part of the Syrian insurgency.
Following this week's distortion of statements into the claim that the Islamic State of Iraq --- mistakenly reduced to "Al Qa'eda in Iraq" --- has "merged" with the Syrian Islamist faction Jabhat al-Nusra, McClatchy headlines a story from its correspondent David Enders in northern Syria, "Nusra Front Members in Syria Have Never Masked Al Qaida Ties".
Only one problem: there is no reference in any of Enders' interviews to "Al Qa'eda".
We will have a special analysis later today on the spreading of the "Al Qa'eda myth" by the Western media.
0515 GMT: The International Community and the Opposition. Foreign Ministers of the G8 nations have put out basic, "holding" statements after meeting high-ranking members of the opposition --- including Prime Minister-designate Ghassan Hitto --- in London.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said:
We certainly believe that it’s necessary to continue, if the situation continues to deteriorate, to increase the practical help we give to the Syrian opposition. We think that as things stand today, there is going to be a very strong case for further amendments to the embargo or the lifting of the embargo.
The opposition reiterated its request for anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, while Hitto --- who has faced criticism from others within the opposition leadership --- tried to establish his credentials with the Foreign Ministers.
The White House leaked on Tuesday that it will soon announce another package of aid to the insurgents, including equipment --- not weapons, but equipment --- of use on the battlefield.
0455 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees claim 154 people were killed on Wednesday, including 63 in Daraa Province --- many of them in a mass killing in Sanamein --- and 44 in Damascus and its suburbs.
The Violations Documentation Center reports 56,176 people killed since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 140 on Wednesday. Of the dead, 44,688 are civilians, a rise of 98 from yesterday.
0445 GMT: Casualties. Human Rights Watch has issued a report documenting the deaths of more than 4300 civilians since July 2012 from airstrikes.
The organisation sharply assessed:
Individuals who commit serious violations of the laws of war wilfully, that is intentionally or recklessly, are responsible for war crimes.
Syrian government air strikes that have deliberately or indiscriminately killed civilians appear to be part of systematic and widespread attacks against the civilian population that Human Rights Watch previously found amount to crimes against humanity.
The investigation, based on examination of insurgent-held areas of three provinces and study of the claims of activists, documented attacks on four bakeries, two hospitals, and other civilian targets.
The report cited the use of fragmentation and cluster bombs, ballistic missiles, and incendiary weapons.