1614 GMT: Al Nusra Behind "Chemical Weapons" Attacks?
There are two developments in the case of the alleged chemical weapons attack in Saraqib. Over the last several days, arms experts we've worked with have become aware that some of the devices found at the site of two chemical weapons sites resemble Indian riot control devices. NBC's Richard Engel reports:
Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
The device in question, analyzed by EA here, appears to resemble a riot-controlled device developed by an Indian company, "Tear Smoke Unit." We contacted TSU before the Richard Engel report, but have yet to hear back.
Eliot Higgins has made an even more surprising discovery. Higgins has published a picture, taken by photographer Jeffry Ruigendijk, that claims to show a member of Jabhat al Nusra equipped with one of the grenades.
Another analyst, Aris Roussinos, first suggested that the Indian device might be what we were looking for, and he has pointed out an article about how TSU's riot control devices are being ordered in large quantities by both several African countries - and by Turkey:
In 2007, while Turkey bought 10,025 tear gas munitions from the TSU, Nepal, a regular buyer of the tear gas shells, purchased the record number of 13, 400 units worth Rs 78, 48, 400.
"The number of buyers is going up with more African countries joining the list. So far we have been successfully meeting the demands placed by s the state and central government agencies like defence and para-military forces. Now we must explore the international market specially the African countries. Roughly, we are gearing up to cross the mark of five lakh munitions per year," said an officer, who wished not to be quoted.
What does this mean? We're not sure about the origin or location of the picture of the Jabhat al Nusra fighter, nor do we know when the picture was taken. What we do know, however, is that there is growing evidence that an improperly used riot control agent may be killing people in Syria. Now the intrigue starts. Who used this device in Saraqib, and why?
1419 GMT: Ethnic Cleansing.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has accused the Assad regime of ethnic cleansing on Syria's coast, referencing the massacre in Baniyas where pro-Assad Alawite militias may have killed hundreds of Sunni residents:
“What concerned us about the Banias incident is that (Assad) has switched to a new strategy to reinstate influence by subjecting a certain area to ethnic cleansing,” Davutoglu told the Hurriyet newspaper....
“This is a so-called Plan B strategy based on sectarian clashes and opening a space or corridor for a certain sect,” he said, suggesting Assad was trying to create an all-Alawite zone stretching from the embattled city of Homs to Lebanon....
“This is a dangerous game. This is an ethnic cleansing,” he said.
“The goal is to intimidate the residents and to force them to leave. In fact, the majority of one million refugees who fled to Lebanon is Sunnis.”
Meanwhile, a blog has been established that has cataloged the claims of the Banias massacre. It has a timeline, as well as a collection of videos and pictures of the victims. EA has not yet verified or assessed the huge amount of claims coming from Banias, but there is plenty of evidence here to assess.
Also, it should be noted that, according to the blog, 800 civilians have been killed in Bayda Village and another 700 in the Ras al-Naba district of Banias. We cannot beging to confirm this number at this point, but this is in line with some of the other claims.
1412 GMT: Opposition Leadership Skeptical of Negotiations.
The United States and Russia are working together to bring the Assad regime and the opposition to the negotiating table. In a whirlwind tour, Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi met with Egyptian and Jordanian officials, both of whom agreed that it's time to negotiate. Russia and Iran may or may not be genuine. The US and its allies may or may not be genuine. But that entire conversation is moot if either the regime nor the opposition doesn't come to the table.
The opposition is already weighing in. Yesterday's announcements were widely condemned by large and vocal segments of the Syrian diaspora, but perhaps more importantly we are now hearing from many high-profile leaders who are skeptical of any talks.
The Guardian reports that National Coalition members Samir NAshar, Ahmed Ramadan, the Supreme Military Council's Colonel Qassim Saadedine, as well as former National Coalition leader Moaz al Khatib, have all expressed doubts that any negotiation with Assad is possible at all.
If the political leaders of the opposition won't negotiate, the plan is dead in the water, and John Kerry may just be wasting more time. In Syria, time equals lives. If the insurgent leaders won't negotiate, it doesn't matter what the political leaders do. If only some of the insurgents negotiate, while others do not, any political solution will just open the door for the next phase of Syria's internal war.
The question then become whether any of the other options are less risky.
James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started today.
1000 GMT: Regime Re-Opens Lebanon Border to Trucks
Authorities have allowed Lebanese transit trucks to cross into Syria after 47 days.
The trucks were denied entry in retaliation for attacks on gasoil shipments.
“The Syrian measure was taken suddenly despite high-level political communications to re-open the road having started a while ago,” said Mohammad Saleh, an owner of a clearance office.
“Therefore we cannot be sure that the road will be open permanently.”
0720 GMT: Regime Forces Advance in South
The Syrian military captured the town of Khirbet Ghazaleh in Daraa Province in southern Syria today after a two-month bombardment, opposition sources said.
The sources said the town, on the highway to Jordan, fell after a Jordanian-backed opposition military council failed to supply weapons to Khirbet Ghazaleh's defenders.
Insurgents, operating under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, cut off the highway to Jordan two months ago; holding Khirbet Ghazaleh, at a crossroads leading west to the city of Daraa, has been central to that effort.
0445 GMT: Casualties
The Local Coordination Committees claim confirmation of the deaths of 128 people on Tuesday, including 46 in Daraa Province and 35 in Damascus and its suburbs.
The Violations Documentation Center puts the confirmed death toll at 59,780 since the conflict begin in March 2011, an increase of 92 from Tuesday.
Of those killed, 46,885 were civilians, a rise of 41 from yesterday.
0405 GMT: The US-Russia Initiative
Analysis at EA of the latest development varies --- James Miller sees the US-Russian declaration as the logical outcome of an American move for a political settlement:
While Washington did approve the moving of Croatian weapons to the rebels, those shipments have never been in quantities large enough to end the crisis, and they appear to have stalled in recent months. Washington's goal has always been to push the regime to the negotiating table. Washington may have finally convinced Russia...that the stalemate has been accomplished, and a negotiated settlement is the only solution.
I am not so sure. The trip to Moscow could be a set-up for escalated support of the insurgency and opposition --- even if the US and allies like Britain are still unclear what form that support should take. If the Syrian regime rejects or even stalls on the initiative for political talks, then Washington can say to Moscow that President Assad has had his last chance to exit gracefully.
0350 GMT: US and Russia Put Out Call for Talks
At the end of late-night discussions, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have called for new talks for a political resolution.
"We agreed that Russia and the United States will encourage both the Syria government and opposition groups to find a political solution," Lavrov told reporters.
Kerry met first for more than two hours with President Vladimir Putin and then for a further three with Lavrov.
Kerry and Lavrov suggested an international conference by the end of May, followup an agreement last June in Geneva for a political accommodation.
"We believe that the Geneva communique is the important track to end the bloodshed in Syria," Kerry said.
Last June's initiative stalled when an attempt at a temporary ceasefire, opening the way for talks, failed.
Beyond the general call, however, there was little detail, for example, the position of Syrian President Assad. The US has insisted that he must stand down in a transition, while Moscow has opposed the pre-condition.
Instead, Putin announced that he will hold separate one-on-one talks with US President Obama at the G8 Summit on 16-17 June.