The Latest from Iran (10 May): Ahmadinejad's Welcome Distraction

1820 GMT: Book Corner. Radio Zamaneh reports that all works of the prominent author Ali Ashraf Darvishian have been removed from the Tehran Book Fair.

1810 GMT: Parliament Watch. Back from a break to summarise latest developments in the tug-of-war between Parliament and the Government.

On Monday, the Majlis finally confirmed the 2011/12 Budget --- after a debate and delays of more than two months --- but the affirmation was far from resounding: only 144 votes of the 290 MPs voted for the package. There were 29 votes against, 12 abstentions, 23 "presents", and 82 absences.

Now a new battle is brewing: MPs, including Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, are claiming that the Government may be breaking the law in its plans for the merger of nine Ministries. On Monday, Parliament had warned that former Ministers could not continue to serve in the new Ministries.

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The Latest from Iran (6 May): "The Government Has Lifted Up Its Hands to Pray"

1955 GMT: Media Watch. The Guardian of London has picked up on the story with which we began today (see 0445 GMT), "Iran's Supreme Leader tells Ahmadinejad: Accept Minister [of Intelligence] or Quit", quoting the President's ally, Morteza Agha-Tehrani.

And Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has a thorough overview of the crisis --- with an appearance by EA --- "Ahmadinejad Floored By Bugs, Spirits, And Djinns":

Whenever cornered, Mahmud Ahmadinejad always seems to come out swinging. But Iran's notoriously abrasive president appears in danger of suffering a knockout blow over his political attachment to Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, a man widely seen as a threat to the country's clerical-based political system.

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Today's Worst Iran Analysis: It's all about (the) US

Esfandiar Rahim-MashaiDavid Ignatius of The Washington Post pronounces on the current crisis between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad, "When there’s political upheaval in Tehran, it’s often interwoven with the explosive question of possible outreach to the United States."

In other words, the dispute is all because "[Ahmadinejad right-hand man] Esfandiar Rahim] Mashaei is said to have initiated a series of contacts attempting to open a dialogue with the United States".

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Iran Special: 5-Point Guide to Ahmadinejad v. Supreme Leader --- What Caused It, What It Means, and What Will Happen

1. IS THIS SERIOUS?

Yes --- as an Iran-based EA correspondent summarised, "It is more than cosmetic and it is more than a minor spat."

For confirmation, look at the signals from all sides. The President's disappearance since last week is more than a "sulk": with his failure to attend meetings of the Cabinet as well as other important bodies like the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, he is effectively boycotting government with his colleagues.

The Supreme Leader staked out his position, first in a letter (leaked to supportive media) and then with a public statement, that he would not accept the forced "resignation" of the Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi. The Ministry would remain in his domain, not Ahmadinejad's.

And others around and linked to the two sides have staked out serious positions. Clerics, politicians, and officials have supported the Supreme Leader or the Government --- usually the former --- and there have been threats that Ahmadinejad could meet the fate of Iran's first President, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who was forced from office and barely escaped with his life in 1981.

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Iran and WikiLeaks 2010: Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "A Key Advisor for the Increasingly Isolated President"

Ahmadinejad's opponents use the president's relationship with Mashaei for mockery and to score political points. Numerous IRPO contacts have related well known anecdotes about Mashaei's religious views and firm belief in the imminent return of the Twelfth Imam. Among them is the political "urban myth" in Tehran that Ahmadinejad's devotion to Mashaei is said to stem from his belief that Mashaei is in fact in direct contact with the Twelfth Imam. According to these rumors, Mashaei allegedly occasionally enters a trance-like state to communicate with the Twelfth Imam or will sometimes randomly say "hello" to no one at all and then explain that the Twelfth Imam just passed by.

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The Latest from Iran (18 April): A Matter of Intelligence --- Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei?

2115 GMT: A Matter of Intelligence. Ali Akbar Javanfekr, former media advisor to President Ahmadinejad and now managing director of State news agency IRNA, reinforces his paper's line (see 2030 GMT): "The lying media, claiming the aupreme leader has refused the change of the intelligence minister, are executing new scenarios against the government and pretending the president isn't loyal to the supreme leader. Changing a minister in such a strategic and important ministry is impossible without coordination between the president and the dear supreme Leader."

2050 GMT: Claim of Day. Tahavol-e Sabz asserts that a domestic flight was cancelled because of the high price of fuel, which has tripled recently. The website says a senior deputy of the Ministry of Oil stopped the flight at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, even though President Ahmadinejad ordered payment on credit for domestic airlines.

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Iran Feature: Parliament Forces Civil Society Underground (Ghazi)

UPDATE 1530 GMT: The Parliament has referred the legislation on civil institutions back to committee after the Speaker, Ali Larijani, criticised "ambiguities" in the language of the bill.
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The Majlis, Iran’s Parliament, is in the process of approving a bill that, according to civil activists, aims at eliminating independent civil institutions and replacing them with a government organization. According to the provisions of this bill not only are individuals who plan to establish non-governmental or civil organizations required to be fully cleared and approved by the Ministry of Intelligence and supervisory committees, but even organizations that already have operational licenses and have been active need to reapply for new permits. If the latter are not approved, the supreme supervisory committee will annul their current permits and ban their activities.

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The Latest from Iran (7 April): We Have Met the Enemy, and They are Facebook and Twitter

2015 GMT: Line of the Day. President Ahmadinejad gives short shrift to the New Year message from President Obama, "What do you know about Nowruz?"

2005 GMT: Currency Watch. Peymane claims that the Iranian toman has dropped to a rate of 1115 v. the US dollar.

The Iranian Government has been trying to keep the toman's value around 1050 to the dollar. Last autumn, after the announcement of subsidy cuts and amidst sanctions, it intervened with influxes of foreign reserves when the toman fell, on the "free market", to 1200 to the dollar.

Peymane also reports that gold prices are rising amidst economic uncertainty.

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Iran Feature: Leading Conservative Website Tears Apart Ahmadinejad's Rahim-Mashai

An EA correspondent passes on a translation, provided by the US Government's Open Source Center, of a 30 March article in Khabar Online --- the website connected to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- challenging and eve ridiculing President Ahmadinejad's close ally and Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, "Will Masha'i Be Eliminated or Achieve His Presidential Ambitions?":

One may regard Esfandiar Rahim-Masha'i as someone for whom "words go in from one ear and go out from the other ear" (someone who does not listen to the criticisms of others). He was one of the most provocative figures during the year 89 (the Iranian year that ended 20 March 2011), but he never took back any of his words.

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The Latest from Iran (4 April): Taking Away Zeroes

1725 GMT: Mona Lisa Watch. The head of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization says Tehran has severed all ties with the Louvre Museum because the French art center has not fulfilled a promise to hold an exhibition in Iran.

Hamid Baghaei said that Iran had put on two exhibitions at the Louvre, one showcasing objects from the Safavid era and the other introducing the ancient Persian Civilization, and had given the French until the beginning of the Iranian year (21 March) for an exact date for the exhibition in Iran and a list of the artifacts to be displayed.

1715 GMT: A Stonewall on Oil. Khabar Online, the conservative website linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, features President Ahmadinejad's press conference answer to a question about $11 billion in missing oil funds: "What answer is there to give?"

Parliament's Energy Commission, the Supreme Audit Court, and other conservative publications have all raised questions about the shortfall in oil revenues.

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