Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (2 December): Choking

1855 GMT: Khatami Speaks. Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami has urged authorities to let the Islamic Republic pass through “threats and restrictions” into an atmosphere of “safety and freedom".

Speaking to families of political prisoners on Tuesday, Khatami emphasized that the constitution "should be the basis of everyone’s actions especially the government". He asked authorities to ensure free and healthy elections and inclusive policies.

1840 GMT: The Budget Battle. Reformist MP Nasrollah Torabi has declared that the remarks of Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, on a possible compromise over the 5th Budget Plan have no legal binding.

1816 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Prominent historian Abdollah Shahbazi, a supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested in Shiraz.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (30 November): Life Beyond Wikileaks

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Nasim Soltanbaygi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

2005 GMT: Strike a (Nuclear) Pose. Back from a break to find President Ahmadinejad carrying out his standard approach --- agree to talks with the "West" but try to establish a position of strength by denouncing the "West" --- in a speech in Sari in northern Iran.

With discussions confirmed with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) in Geneva on 6-7 December, the President charged, "While the Tehran negotiations [with Brazil and Turkey] were underway, you passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation and today you insist on continuing negotiations."

Ahmadinejad said is always ready to enter nuclear negotiations with the West as long as Iran's rights are respected, advising the negotiating side to put away its "tyrannical" attitude.

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (26 November): Connect the Meetings

2055 GMT: Parliament v. President. Ali Motahari, the leader of the movement to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questions, said that the demand will be made after the implementation of subsidy cuts. Motahari again said that there were nearly enough signatories --- 1/4 of the 290 MPs --- to call in Ahmadinejad, and that most of those signing were principlists.

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker Ali Larijani, posts a recent history of Parliament-President relations, documenting how Ahmadinejad has faced possible questioning on several previous occasions.

Khabar also claims that the battle for control of the Central Bank continues. Parliament recently voted to take oversight away from the President.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (25 November): Taking a Break?

2144 GMT: Election and Sedition. Another take-away from the Supreme Leader's speech to Basij militia today....

Ayatollah Khamenei said the post-election protesters put their desire for power above the Islamic Republic in a “complex sedition” which endangered the “interests of the country and the righteousness of its path". He added, “They acted in such a way that drew the excitement and support of Western leaders and the Iranian nation’s first grade enemies.”

The Supreme Leader also laid down the lines on loyalty: “A society is either led by the just Imam...or it is run by human beings who know nothing of righteousness....It cannot be any other way.”

2138 GMT: Controlling the Mourning. As the anniversary of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Commander Mohammad Reza Heydari has announced the establishment of "Muharram Police" in Qom to control religious ceremonies.

Click to read more ...

Iran Politics: Will the anti-Ahmadinejad Campaign Ease for the Holidays?

As Iran begins a four-day religious holiday today, there is likely to be an easing of news. 

But will there be an easing of pressure on President Ahmadinejad?

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (22 November): Killing "Terrorists", Setting Trials, and Talking Philosophy and Human Rights

1905 GMT: CyberWars. A couple of signs of the regime's campaign across the Internet....

In his press conference today, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hosein Mohseni Ejei said 60 individuals have been arrested in connection with running "obscene" Persian websites.

In his own press appearance, General Hossein Hamedani, the Tehran commander of the Revolutionary Guard, said a 1500-member "Cyber Commando" unit had been trained.

1900 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Aftab News reports that the exploitation of two projects in the South Pars oil and gas field has been delayed for ten months.

1733 GMT: The Surveillance Lawsuit. Detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi have withdrawn their lawsuit alleging that the sale of Nokia Siemens Networks mobile phone surveillance technology led to the arrest and torture of Isa Saharkhiz after the 2009 Presidential election.

The lawyers for the Saharkhizs said the case was dropped to "keep it alive and viable".

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (14 November): "Green Movement is Alive"

2120 GMT: CyberWatch. The website of the Feminist School has been filtered for the 19th time by Iranian authorities.

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Commander Moghaddam, head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Isargaran Committee, has been arrested after he and other veterans had a meeting with Mousavi this week.

2055 GMT: Economy Watch. While Iran waits for the implementation of subsidy cuts, Rah-e-Sabz reports that prices for 29 essential foods have risen weekly, with the highest increases for fresh vegetables (10.3%) and legumes (5.6%).

2045 GMT: Free Thinking, Khatami Style. Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting former academics, has said that criticism of the regime is "due to sympathy". Speaking directly about the suspension of "Western-style" humanities instruction in universities, Khatami declared, "You cannot change the world or humanities with official orders".

The former President added, "If politics is based on free elections, many problems will be solved."

Click to read more ...

Iran Guidance: How Should the US Talk with Tehran?

An EA correspondent writes:

Marginalising Ahmadinejad and his stubbornly anti-Western thought is the only way forward for meaningful dialogue with people inside the regime, but even then at the cost of throwing the human rights issue under the train: no regime insider, not even more flexible ones such as Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, will come to terms on that front.

Click to read more ...