Hossein Ronaghi MalekiI am of the belief, every human being’s silence against oppression and injustice is a betrayal of the innocent blood of the martyrs of this land....
I will repeat a quote from the Exalted Prophet Mohamad: “The land and government will survive under blasphemy but will not last under oppression.”
See also Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
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Worker sweeps up campaign flyers, 25 February
1915 GMT: The "Engineers" in Syria. Seven Iranian engineers and technicians, abducted in Syria in December, have not been freed.
Last month, Iranian media reported that the men had been released, but Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister has said that they are still in the country, albeit in "perfect health".
The Free Syrian Army claims that five of the men are actually military snipers who were in Syria to assist President Assad's forces.
1845 GMT: Assurance of the Day. An Iranian official announces, “About 1,300 domestic and 350 foreign reporters working for 174 international media will provide coverage for the ninth election of the Majlis on Friday."
Which only leaves the question: how exactly will they be allowed to "provide coverage"?
Here's the story. On Wednesday, the 33rd anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's return from exile in Paris to become the effective leader of Iran, the event was re-enacted for a military ceremony.
As the original Khomeini is in his mausoleum, a cardboard replica had to take the leading role.
All very dramatic in photographs, but we think there is more here. What would you say if you were a Cardboard Ayatollah? Or what you say to him? Or what you say about the entire situation?
Best answer wins a dinner with the Cardboard Ayatollah at a Cardboard Restaurant in Tehran....
Over the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of an extraordinary speech by President Ahmadinejad to a group of his backers, the Supporters of Islamic Revolution Dialogue, in Tehran.
Our initial reaction was "Did he really say that?" And that as the reports built in their detail, we began to consider, "If he did say that, what does it mean for the conflict inside the Iranian system?"
For --- if the reports are true --- the President's speech was no less than a proclamation of all-out political conflict with his rivals, including a possible showdown with some in the camp of the Supreme Leader. That would explain why "mainstream" Iranian outlets only published parts of the statement, leaving out the most provocative challenges.
We are still cautious. Did the pro-Ahmadinejad website, <em>Dolat-e Ma</em>, which has published the transcript of the speech, get it right through its reporter on the scene? Is there exaggeration for effect, perhaps to scare Ahmadinejad's opponents?
Then again, no one from the President's office or amongst his media backers has denied the remarks. So we assess the significance of Ahmadinejad's declaration of a "final confrontation"...
Today we are witnessing the uprising of one Muslim nation after another, standing up against tyranny and humiliation, overthrowing dictatorial regimes in their quest to experience a new world and a better life. If their goal is to pursue science and technology and the further development of their country and their personal financial well-being, then without a doubt, given the current inflation, unemployment rate, zero growth in GDP and declining economic conditions, all a direct result of the mismanagement, incompetence and inefficiencies of the current ruling government, it is best if you and I recommend that they not use Iran’s current model as one to emulate!
If their goal on the other hand, is to adhere to a high standard of ethics and spirituality, qualities that were integral to the message of our revolution and distinguished it from all other revolutions, as the leader of the Islamic Republic, are you able to provide them with any tangible and practical examples of such achievements by the regime? Do you plan to point them to the lies, deception and most significant corruption in the history of our nation? Or will you speak of the generosity and humanity that government officials have shown towards our citizens?
1150 GMT: Revolutionary Guards Do Politics. Ayatollah Alamolhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad, tries to clarify the issue of whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps can intervene in political issues --- he explains that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never said the IRGC should not enter politics, only that they should not interfere in political parties and elections.
IRGC commander Hossein Hamedani offers another bit of logic to support the Revolutionary Guards' invovlement: all Iranian people are Basiji fighting for the country, the Revolutionary Guards are not separated from the Basij, thus the IRGC is a principlist movement beyond a narrow military role.1040 GMT: Cartoon of the Day. Nikahang Kowsar depicts President Ahmadinejad's escape from interrogation by legislators, thanks to opposition from the Board of the Parliament and --- it is reported --- the Supreme Leader's office:
Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, Ayatollah Hojjati Kermani, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hojatoleslam Abbas Amirifar, Hossein Hamedani, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Kargozaran, Mohammad Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Reza Khatami 
2040 GMT: Back to the Revolutionary Guards. While the headline out of
the interview of the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see 1205 GMT), was his declaration that the judiciary has given the Guards the authority to deal with the "deviant current", the label applied to President Ahmadinejad's advisors.there is so much more to be considered....
First, the confirmation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was behind the recent arrests of several members of the "deviant current": "The IRGC arrested and detained these people based on a recommendation by the judiciary. These people have not committed security crimes. However, they have committed economic and moral offences. The people that have been arrested had close ties to the main figures of the (deviant) current."
Given that Mehr published this as a two-part interview yesterday and today, did Jafari make his statement before or after the Supreme Leader told everyone to back off public disputes (see 0515 GMT)?
And then there was Jafari crossing into politics, setting preconditions for the return of "acceptable" reformists to the arena:
Members of the reformist camp who have not crossed the redlines can naturally participate in political campaigns. However, [former President Mohammad] Khatami's success in his activities depends on his stances....During the sedition incident [the 2009 post-election protest], Mr Khatami did not pass his test successfully and he showed a lot of support for the sedition leaders [Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi]. At the moment, he has not yet adopted a stance to distance himself from those actions. If he still intends to resort to political manoeuvres, I do not think people will forgive him. However there are other individuals [in the reformist camp] who have not crossed the redlines and they can actively participate in political campaigns.
And Jafari had a glance at foreign affairs, saying that the uprisings in Syria were started "artificially" and were different in nature from those in other countries of the region: "The movements in Syria were provoked by the Americans, because Syria is the only country of the region that has stood up to the US and Israel."
Ahmadinejad is a threat to clerical supremacy, but without him, Khomeinism is even more vulnerable to reformist challengers. The alternative would be a right-wing ideological state -- nationalist, fundamentalist, populist, and ruled by militarism, something akin to the Japan of the 1930s. And that cannot last. In this contest between Iran's elite factions, the world should be rooting for the clergy -- their victory will bring about the quickest end to the Islamic Republic.
No doubt, the price of speaking truth to power was higher than expected for the Iranian civic actors. It resulted in massive arrests, Stalinist-style show trials, torture, rape, and murder. Also, the nature of Iran’s system, with its power split between two centers --- the president and the supreme leader --- has complicated and slowed down the process of change.
Even so, the Green Movement has achieved its goal by gaining the moral high ground, revealing to the world the true face of the Islamic regime, and draining away much of its political legitimacy. Further, it has hastened the end of Khomeinism by exposing the existent political rifts within the Iranian political power.
Azadi Square, Tehran, 15 June 2009Today the testy president and his aides have challenged the power of Ayatollah Khamenei. Conservative rivals now dismiss them as a “deviant current” obsessed with the imminent return of the Shiite messiah.
Close aides have been arrested for sorcery and witchcraft, and there is talk that Mr. Ahmadinejad will not survive the rest of his four-year term. The Leader’s deputy representative to the Revolutionary Guard even declared this week that “the current of deviation… is the gravest danger in the history of Shiite Islam.”
So while the regime was successful in brutally putting down the largest popular protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, it appears anything but triumphant today.
