Syria (and Beyond): A Downed Jet Grabs the Headlines

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1940 GMT: Turkey. Insurgents of the PKK have released Hüseyin Aygün, an MP of the opposition Republican People's Party, whom they abducted on Sunday.

1900 GMT: Syria. The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria has released a statement suggesting that the UN should facilitate another ceasefire in order to achieve peace and preserve what is left of the country:

The great sacrifices that the Syrian people has been able to balance out the power of the regime, but it is still far from achieving a victory because of the international balance of powers that refuses to see the victory of one side over the other. The stalemate makes the continuation of the violence merely a path to the destruction of the Syrian state, society and being.

In order to minimize the painful cost of the desired change, and to protect what can be protected from our country’s infrastructure and our national unity, we at the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria, which is an active part of the Syrian popular movement against oppression and one of the main forces against violence and foreign intervention, propose the following:

First- That all armed parties, the regime at the forefront of them, have to agree to a temporary ceasefire to be implemented as soon as possible, hopefully before the beginning of the Eid al-Fitr holiday. All parties are to agree not to conduct any military operations and not to attempt any changes to the current situation on the ground.

Second- During the first week of the truce, both parties are to release their detainees, captives, prisoners, hostages and the kidnapped, and to cease all such actions from then on. All such actions from then be treated as a criminal offence, their perpetrators are to be punished by law.

Third- The two parties are to allow relief agencies to deliver food and medical aid, and they are also to facilitate the treatment of the wounded in public and private hospitals under the auspices of the Red Cross and Red Crescent.

Fourth- If the parties concerned implement the earlier points, then the atmosphere for a political solution will be present. Negotiations are then to take place between members of the opposition and a delegation from the regime, the delegation is to have full negotiating authority and has to consist of members that have not been responsible for any bloodshed. The negotiators are to agree on a state of political transition with a definite period -one year- that is to prepare the country for a democratic, pluralistic parliamentary system.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A No-Fly Zone?

1924 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, 100 people have been killed today by regime forces:

56 were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs; 17 in Homs; 14 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor (6 of them were martyred yesterday and their bodies were discovered today); 3 in Idlib; 2 in Hama; and 1 in Lattakia.

That number does not differentiate between civilians and insurgents, and does not include regime casualties. Syrian State media has also stopped reporting number of security forces killed in this conflict.

1900 GMT: Syria. This afternoon there are reports of unusually high levels of regime shelling in Daraa province. So far, there are reliable reports from Busra al Sham to the east of Daraa, (map), Al Harak to the north east (map), Tafas to the north (map, see update below), and perhaps most interesting Ghabagheb, between Daraa and Damascus (map). Furthermore, the LCC reports extremely intense shelling in Darayya, a town southwest of Damascus on the road to Daraa (map). As is probably obvious from looking at these locations, nearly the entire road from Daraa to Darayya is reportedly being shelled. As we see from the reports from Tafas (below), that may not be a coincidence, but may be a response to the Free Syrian Army being increasingly active.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The US and Turkey Make Plans --- But What are They?

Saturday night protest in Morocco (see 0714 GMT)

See also Sudan Feature: The Activists Who Seek an Uprising
Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting Continues in Aleppo

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2045 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees claim 110 people have been killed by security forces today.

The LCC reports that of 45 slain in Damascus and its suburbs, many were members of the Free Syrian Army in the area of Kisweh.

2015 GMT: Syria. A tribute by Syrian TV to Yara Salem, one of three journalists of the pro-regime Al-Ikhbariya channel who were abducted near Damascus last week:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting Continues in Aleppo

A reporter for Press TV, escorted by Syrian military, declares that Salah Ed Dine is Aleppo is free of "terrorists" --- In his previous broadcast from Aleppo on 30 July, the reporter said, "All is normal"

See also Syria Opinion: "Nobody Is Above Criticism"
Iran and Syria Audio Feature: Why Tehran's Conference "Stunt" Means Little --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Battle for Aleppo Continues

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2025 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees reports that 80 people have been killed by security forces today, including 19 in Damascus and its suburbs and 15 in Aleppo Province.

1915 GMT: Syria. A Lebanese judge has charged former Minister of Information Michel Samaha and two Syrian army officers with setting up an armed group to incite sectarian strife through “terror attacks”, including bombings and assassinations.

One of the Syrian officers as General Ali Mamluk, the Syrian National Security chief.

The indictment also said that Samaha and the Syrian army officers set up the armed group to commit crimes, fueling sectarianism “by targeting the authority of the state and its civil and military institutions.” It alleged that the group conspired “with the intelligence services of a foreign country to undertake attacks against Lebanon".

Samaha was arrested on Thursday, initially in a case linked to explosives.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Insurgents Hold Out in Aleppo

A demonstration last night in Nile Street in Aleppo in Syria

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1944 GMT: Syria. Yesterday we posted reports that Kafranbel, a town in Idlib made famous for its witty protest signs made in English, was under heavy attack by regime forces (map). At the end of the day, there was little news beyond the report that many shells had fallen and many civilians were injured.

Previous regime incursions into Idlib have ended very poorly, with many destroyed tanks, killed soldiers, and even with large amounts of defectors and armored vehicles falling into the hands of the Free Syrian Army. From the looks of this fight, it appeared different, as if the military were focusing on shelling the city from afar, and were committing far more forces to the fight than before.

However, history repeats itself. News broke today that the FSA had inflicted heavy losses yesterday. One video claimed to show that the FSA had destroyed an armored vehicle and a hospital that had been occupied by the military. Those victories were only the tip of the iceberg. Many videos are emerging, each matching a series of separate activist reports, that show a large amount of destroyed military equipment after heavy battles today:

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Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Airstrikes in Sinai Kill 20

Al Jazeera English reports from a hospital in al-Atareb in Aleppo Province, Syria

See also Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Crumbling Regime?
Syria Analysis: The Local Coordination Committees Issue a "Code of Conduct" for Free Syrian Army
Iran Snap Analysis: Scrambling Over Syria

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2025 GMT: Syria. Is Iran also planning for a Syria without Assad? EA's Scott Lucas thinks so, and he's written an analysis that suggests that the Iranian government is strengthening ties with Lebanon, repairing ties with Turkey, and even building bridges with Saudi Arabia --- all to make sure that if the Assad regime falls, Tehran is buffered against the shock.

Then there is this piece of news in our Iran Live Coverage:

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has published a statement "announc[ing] Iran’s readiness to host a meeting of countries committed to immediately implementing these steps in hopes of ending the violence...[and] reiterat[ing] our willingness to facilitate talks between the Syrian government and the opposition and to host such a dialogue".

That is not new --- Salehi has said this on several occasions in recent weeks. What is new is the outlet: an opinion piece in the Washington Post.

And what is even more distinctive is Salehi's recognition --- the first I can recall from a high-ranking Iranian official --- of the legitimacy of protest against the Syrian regime:

"When the Islamic Awakening — also known as the Arab Spring — began in December 2010, we all saw people rising up to claim their rights. We have witnessed the emergence of civic movements demanding freedom, democracy, dignity and self-determination.

"We in Tehran have watched these developments with delight. After all, a civic movement demanding the same things that many Arabs want today is what led to the emergence of our Islamic Republic in 1979. During the past three decades, Iran has consistently underlined that it is the duty of all governments to respect their people’s demands. We have maintained this position as the Islamic Awakening has unfolded."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Crumbling Regime?

See also Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo
Syria 1st-Hand: Fleeing Aleppo
Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Rumour and Reality in Aleppo

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2038 GMT: Syria. Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), has been shelled every day for weeks, mostly starting at around sundown each day, the time when people break their fasts, the time when people are most vulnerable. Today, the LCC has a desperate claim:

Intense shelling by artillery, tanks, and rocket launchers in Housh area of the city. More than 50 martyrs have been reported thus far.

However, there appears as though there has been a translation issue. Fares Mohamed, with the LCC in Zabadani, says that 50 shells have fallen, rather than there being 50 martyrs.

This is breaking news, so sources are scarce, but two disturbing (and unverified) videos claim to show the explosions. It's night, making the videos even harder to verify, but Fares Mohamed says that the video appears to have been taken in Zabadani:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan Quits, The Mass Killings Do Not

Claimed footage of the aftermath of regime attacks on the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus, which killed at least 20 people on Thursday (Warning: Graphic)

See also Syria Audio Feature: "Annan's Resignation is A Sideshow...and What Is Really Important" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Syria Video Feature: Fighting the Battle with Camera Phones
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is Aleppo Out of Control?

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2040 GMT: Syria. For two weeks we have been talking about the likelihood that the Syrian Army will liberate Aleppo in the sudden push of a massive military assault on the country's largest city. For two weeks, we have been saying that the Free Syrian Army will make Assad pay for every inch of that liberation. Now, however, we need to consider that the most likely scenario may no longer be regime victory in Aleppo.

The roads north of Aleppo are virtually clear of the Syrian army. The area as far east as Kobani (also known as Ayn-al-Arab), and as far west as Dar T'Izzah, all the way north to the border with Turkey, is either completely or largely in insurgent hands. Free Syrian Army fighters have captured perhaps hundreds of vehicles, some of them armoured, and a few of them are tanks.

The FSA has more and more weapons, and has proven it can beat Assad's armour. Those fighters have been hit hard by the helicopters and jet fighters, but have proven that they are strong enough to take those hits. We have now gone many days without a regime victory in the area, and the FSA continues to advance. Perhaps as much of 70% of Aleppo is under some degree of FSA control, while the insurgents are closing in on Assad's military bases south of Salaheddin.

Common knowledge says that the regime will strike soon, but common knowledge said that the regime would retake the city last Saturday. It didn't happen. The FSA won the battles. In fact, there is no available empirical evidence that suggests the Assad regime can win the future battles inside Aleppo.

A quick look at the map tells the story --- the area in blue is area over which the FSA has at least partial control, though this is likely too conservatively drawn):

View Syria - 2012 August 3 - EA Worldview in a larger map

The regime is working against the clock. Since February, the Syrian military has not retaken a single city or town that has been in insurgent control for more than 2 weeks. Reporters on the ground are saying that the FSA is become better equipped and better supplied and that its ranks, both inside Aleppo and outside, are growing.

The regime could make a significant military assault in a bid to take Aleppo back, but it would likely have to be much larger than anything we have seen so far.

Without being alarmist, the most likely scenario may not be a regime assault on the city. Soon, the Free Syrian Army could be poised to take Aleppo --- all of it.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is Aleppo Out of Control?

People grieve over some of the dozens killed on Wednesday in Jdeidet Artouz near Damascus (see 0515, 0625, and 0705 GMT)

See also Bahrain Opinion: US Needs More Than Words About the Regime
Syria Revealed: Inside the Obama Administration's Discussions About the Insurgency
Syria and Turkey Analysis: Ankara Looks to Iraq's Barzani Amid the "Kurdish Spring"
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Aleppo --- This Does Not Look Like Regime "Victory"

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2042 GMT: Syria. Martin Chulov of The Guardian writes:

FSA colonel told me 1000s of refugees from Idlib & #Aleppo sleeping in fields near Jebel al-Zawiya. "We can't feed them. Help us."

— Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) August 2, 2012

2037 GMT: Bahrain. Footage of police gathering and arresting people in Bilad Qadeem tonight:

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Bahrain Opinion: US Needs More Than Words About the Regime

US Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner after a visit to Bahrain, 14 June 2012

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The only leverage the White House has is a real threat to withdraw support --- the support of arms sales and other political and military links --- from their regime. Its alternative is no more than persisting in "suggestions"...and hoping Bahrain's police runs out of tear gas.

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