Bahrain Analysis: Can the Kingdom Learn from Northern Ireland? (Diboll)

Funeral for two teenagers killed by British Army, 1972Northern Ireland suffered a simmering low-intensity civil war that lasted 40 years claiming thousands of lives through the murderous activities of both ethno-sectarian terrorist groups and the British and Northern Irish security forces. This conflict crippled and traumatized tens of thousands, and caused billions of pounds worth of economic damage to the UK, the Irish Republic, and above all Northern Ireland, from which the province will probably never fully recover. Before anything like a lasting settlement could be reached the conflict spread to the mainland UK, with devastating bomb attacks in London, Manchester and elsewhere over a 20 year period, with further killings in several European countries.

None of this has happened yet in Bahrain, but close resemblances to the early days of “The Troubles” and the current situation in Bahrain, combined with the general volatility of the MENA region, demand that those concerned with Bahrain look closely at Northern Ireland in order to learn lessons from that conflict which might prevents Bahrain and her neighbours from experiencing violence on a Northern Irish level, or worse.

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Bahrain Live Coverage Special: The Anniversary Protests

2121 GMT: A source in Bahrain forwards us this GRAPHIC PICTURE which they say shows a serious wound that was received when a police officer threw someone out a 3rd-story window. EA Correspondent John Horne adds, " "if true, this is a concerning development. A similar allegation was made Sunday, when police allegedly threw a young man from a first floor foor and then shot at the women who tried to help him."

1923 GMT: The story in Bahrain is not all about violence, however. This video, shared with us by a correspondent in Bahrain, shows the large amount of peaceful protesters who were trying to reach Pearl Roundabout earlier but couldn;t make it because the roads were blocked by police:

1812 GMT: Anti-riot vehicles race through Sanabis, but one of them gets hit by a molotov cocktail:

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Year Ago at Pearl Roundabout

Editor's Note (1349 GMT) --- because of the pace of events in Bahrain today, we have split this entry into "Bahrain Live Coverage Special: The Anniversary Protests" and "Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Shelling of Homs Continues".

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "The Reasonable Reaction to Provocation"

2221 GMT: For several hours, activists have been reporting a security operation against the town of Taseel, in Daraa province, Syria. LCCS confirms that report, and also posts these details about the condition on the ground there.

Security forces have launched a security operation in the town since last Wednesday up until today. They launched a detention campaign where more than 50 men got arrested; one of them was Dr. Arshad Al-Qaddah. Also, a house-to-house raiding campaign of all the homes, public places in the town was launched. The pharmacies, clinics, commercial shops and private properties were subotaged amid sporadic gunfire and extensive deployment of fully-equipped security members and thugs (Shabeha). Snipers were deployed on the rooftops all around the town.

2210 GMT: Despite the daily bombardment of Homs, Syria, there have been almost nightly rallies such as these in the Qusour district, just a few blocks from some of the areas that have been intensely shelled in recent weeks:

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Bahrain Feature: Meet "Yates of the Yard", The Policeman Supervising "Reform"

Claimed video of a young man who was allegedly thrown from a roof by security forces:

See also Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "The Reasonable Reaction to Provocation"
Saudi Feature: Did Interpol Help With Deportation of Hamza Kashgari? (Bowcott)

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I note a profile in The Daily Telegraph of John Yates, the former Assistant Commissioner of London's Metropolitian Police who was appointed late last year to supervise "reform" of Bahrain's security forces after the abuses documented by the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry.

The extended puff piece is so unusual, even surreal, that I am not sure it has its intended effect. It begins by noting that "Yates of the Yard...resigned from the Met last year" without giving the reason --- the Assistant Commissioner left amidst the "Hackergate" scandal surrounding News International's tapping of phones.

Then the policeman takes over. Echoing King Hamad, who said in an interview this weekend that there was no opposition in Bahrain, Yates comments, "This isn’t organised protests, it's just vandalism, rioting on the streets. Acts of wanton damage that are destroying the economy.” He explains, "The only danger is the women, they come up and run off with your baby. It’s the Bahrain way, so warm and hospitable, but quite disconcerting at first.”

But the most notable aspect of the publicity may be its timing, coming a day before the anniversary of the first mass protests against the regime. Yates explains, “The concept of reasonable reaction to provocation has been reinforced. Unless [the forces] face extraordinary provocation like last year, it will be about allowing people to gather and containment. It’s about learning techniques from other places like kettling – that would work really well around here.”

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Conflict In the Capital?

An armoured anti-aircraft gun fires at unknown targets in the Damascus suburb of Douma on Saturday

See also Syria 1st-Hand Feature: So While You Were Sleeping....
James Miller speaks to Al Jazeera about the Free Syrian Army
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: More Opposition, in More Places

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1805 GMT: A Turkish court has imprisoned five people suspected of turning over Colonel Hussein Harmush, who defected and established an insurgent brigade in Turkey, to Syrian authorities.

The defendants include a member of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). They are being investigated for “political espionage” and for deprivation of liberty of Harmush and another man who were allegedly taken from a refugee camp near the Syrian border “by force” and handed over to Syrian security forces.

In June 2011, Harmush became the first Syrian military officer to publicly declare his opposition to the Assad regime. He then established the Brigade of Free Officers.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: More Opposition, in More Places

One of Saturday's marches in the Bahraini capital Manama, broken up by police with tear gas and sound grenades (see 1745 GMT)

See also Saudi Opinion: Hamza Kashgari, "Blasphemy", and the Two Sides of Islam
Egypt Anniversary Opinion: J'Accuse the Military Rulers and Muslim Brotherhood
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Protests Amidst the Regime's Assault?

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2100 GMT: Anti-Assad regime protest in Trafalgar Square, London.

2030 GMT: Two American women accused of aiding anti-government activists deported from Bahrain. 

2020 GMT: Higher Revolutionary Council of Syria says that the death toll rises to 67 across the country and the army tries to storm Baba Amro district in Homs.

2000 GMT: It is claimed by Al Arabiya English that Saadi Qaddafi is arrested in Niger.

1925 GMT: According to CNN, the United States is increasing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations over Syria. A senior official says: "There are media reports but we also want to verify exactly what is happening."

1900 GMT: Exchange of fire between two rival factions, the Sunni Muslims and the Alawite sect in Lebanon leaves one from each party dead and 12 wounded. 

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Decimating Homs

The shelling and smoke in Bab Amr in Homs this morning

See also Syria Video Feature: How Can You Get News Out of the Country?
Syria Video Special: The Shelling of Homs, Days 5 and 6
Wednesday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Shutting Out the Journalists

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2110 GMT: Mazhar Tayyara, a freelance journalist working for several major European news agencies has been killed during the military attack on Homs, Syria:

Tayyara was a freelance journalist who was hired as a stringer for the Agence France-Presse and also who provided video footage for The Guardian and the Die Wilt in Germany.

Apparently Tayyara was trying to help some wounded people get to cover when a second volley of shells fell and he was hit by shrapnel in several parts of his body. He died several hours later in hospital.

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Shutting Out the Journalists

2203 GMT: Because the LCCS employees a strict verification system before it certifies a death in Syria, it appears that they are overwhelmed. Many sources say that in Homs and Zabadani, but particularly in Homs, it is nearly impossible to confirm the amount of dead and injured, because of the sheer number, and because of the ongoing violence. However, the Syrian General Revolutionary Council is reporting that at least 117 were killed nationwide on Wednesday, 93 of those deaths were in Homs, and 52 of those deaths were in the Baba Amr district alone.

2116 GMT: The LCCS reports large demonstrations in "the heart of Damascus" this evening. The Coalition of Free Damascenes for Peaceful Change has told a similar story, and has posted several videos of protests in and around Damascus. We have also discovered this video, uploaded by one of the most trusted opposition news networks, that reportedly shows a protest this evening in the Abu Habl district of Midan, near the center of Damascus. It is, according to activist SeekerSK, a primarily commercial area.

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Bahrain, Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 1000s Gather for The Sit-In

The Meqsha Sit-In in Bahrain last night

See also Syria Live Video: The Shelling of Bab Amro in Homs
MENA Feature: Made in China --- The Arab Spring's Mobile Technology
Sunday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Security Council Vetoes --- What's Next?

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2208 GMT: We already reported that the US has closed its embassy in Syria, so we ignored the report that the US had issued a new travel warning on Syria. But we missed an interesting detail -

The Department of State urges those U.S. citizens who decide to remain in Syria despite this Travel Warning to enroll their stay in Syria through the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at www.travel.state.gov, and provide their current contact information and next-of-kin information.

Next-of-kin information? It is possibly part of a scare strategy, but it would also seem that the US State Department is expecting more escalation in violence, particularly in Damascus.

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