Bahrain Analysis: Between Reform and Stagnation (Fakhro/Ulrichsen)

An opposition rally in Zinj in Bahrain on Thursday night

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The regime – and the country at large - are at a crossroads as the first anniversary of the February 14 uprising approaches.. The report of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry BICI has neither provided the closure the ruling family hoped for, nor satisfied the expectations of the political and popular opposition. The continuing violence has hardened positions on all sides and reinforced the absence of trust and goodwill necessary to any political settlement. The emergence of radicalised splinter groups means it is no longer possible to speak of a ‘regime-opposition’ dichotomy. Elements of the opposition are growing more violent, while extremist groups calling on the regime to crush the opposition once and for all have intensified in recent weeks. Competing narratives have diverged sharply since BICI, illustrating the chasm that has opened up where the moderate middle used to be.

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Bahrain Analysis: The Kingdom's "Sunni Awakening" (Gengler)

Sunni activist Mohamed Albuflasa, detained February 2010The Sunni state-vs.-Shi‘i rebel narrative, then, is not without substance. But its use as a framework for analyzing Bahraini politics, including the present impasse, obscures other important elements of the story --- even whole characters. The prevalent storyline tells little, for example, of ordinary Sunni citizens, who make up more than a third of the island’s population and are about as far removed from power as the Shi‘a. These Bahrainis have been no less decisive than the Shi‘a or the state in shaping the country’s political trajectory over the past year. Nominally pro-government, the Sunni population has functioned, perhaps unwittingly, as the foundation of the Al Khalifa monarchy, a captive ethno-religious constituency conditioned to care more for combating the perceived march of collective Shi‘i ambition than for advancing an independent political agenda.

Yet there are signs that the social forces unleashed by the uprising, and the wider Arab awakening, have made Bahraini Sunnis more cognizant of their perennial position as political counterweight --- and more resistant to it. The same grassroots movements that rose in defense of the regime in February and March are now daring to articulate reform demands of their own, albeit not yet with a coherent purpose.

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Bahrain Feature: Tear Gas --- The Story Behind A Picture

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We have been sent a video from Alquraiya, produced by an opposition group, giving more insight into the photograph we posted this morning of protesters in front of a blanket of tear gas, after a march was attacked by security forces. The footage of the extraordinary amount of tear gas used by police on defiant demonstrators again raises concerns over police tactics and the short- and long-term health risks of exposure to such a volume of tear gas.

At EA, we hear daily accounts from people in Bahrain who experience the tear gas fired in villages and residential areas and even inside homes, but what does that mean beyond their stories?

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Liberation Near Damascus?

1954 GMT: Bahraini activists are calling for an interesting protest. Starting Thursday night, activists have called for the release of glowing "sky lanterns" across Bahrain for the next three night, part of a peacuful protest against the establishment of the 2012 Bahrain International Airshow.

EA's John Horne has also discovered this funny little video. An activist, dressed in typical "terrorist garb" gives instructions, in a high-pitched voice, on how to build these lanterns... and also, how to cook potatoes.

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A Song of Global Hope: We Shall Overcome أغنية سوف ننتصر

Joan Baez sings "We Shall Overcome", with some lyrics in Persian, for the people of Iran

See also: A Resolution for a 2012 WorldView: A Global Community Built On Communication, Not Conflict

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Last week, we noted a link by Nabeel Rajab, the head of the Bahrain Center of Human Rights, linked via Twitter to Pete Seeger singing "We Shall Overcome":

This is a song close to our hearts, with a message that is both universal and relevant to today. More than anything, it is filled with hope: if "we are not afraid...we shall live in peace some day...the whole wide world around".

We wanted to spread that message as far as possible. So we have created a version which is subtitled in Arabic.

Pete Seeger - We Shall Overcome | أغنية سوف ننتصر - بيتر سيجر

Click "Select Language" to access Arabic subtitles. We thank @BahrainSwallow for their help translating the lyrics.

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The Real Net Effect: How States Fail at the Manipulation of Social Media (York)

When a state --- be it Bahrain, Israel, Syria or China --- needs to stoop to the level of paying citizens to fight its public relations wars, it has already lost.

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Bahrain Special: Nabeel Rajab's Speech "Our Problem is with the King"

Nabeel Rajab speaks to crowd at the mass gathering of Bahraini political societies, 12 January

See also Bahrain Special: The Steel Rods of the Police
Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Meaningless Amnesty, Cosmetic Speech?

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I think that we are entering a new phase of activism. We are entering a phase in which we have to escalate our activism work as individuals, organizations, activists and human rights defenders. The regime has undoubtedly gotten used to the current rhythm of protests, just like a body that gets used to certain drugs. The regime got used to these gatherings and to the small village protests that it ends and disperses using tear gas. At the same time it tries to mislead the world public opinion in saying that Bahrain does not have any problems except for some small protests inside the villages and these gatherings.

We have to be clear in our speech. Our problem is not with the Prime Minister, nor with the government of the Prime Minister, whom are all merely employees. Our problem is with the King of Bahrain.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Meaningless Amnesty, Cosmetic Speech?

Demonstration after evening prayers in the Khalidiya district of Homs

See also A Song of Global Hope: We Shall Overcome أغنية سوف ننتصر
Bahrain Special: Nabeel Rajab's Speech "Our Problem is with the King"
Syria Special: The State of the Uprising, 10 Months On --- The Protests
Bahrain Special: The Steel Rods of the Police
Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The King's Speech

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2155 GMT: At this moment, several EA source are reporting that the Syrian army is still besieging the city of Zabadani. The LCCS is also posting these reports:

Zabadani has been under shelling since 6 AM this morning by all kinds of light and heavy weaponry, which caused 5 houses to be totally destroyed and more than 13 injuries. There are areas which were shelled and are inaccessible due to heavy shooting, today Jisr cafe, houses in the western ally and some main streets were targeted.

The city is witnessing a strong movement of displaced people to the nearby areas and the number of displaced families reached about 250 family.

Also, state security forces liquidated 15 soldiers today for refusing to shoot at civilians. Military reinforcements arrived to the city: about 25 tanks and large number of troops carriers (of Zil brand), 20 tanks from brigade 62 in Jdaidet Yaboos have moved towards the city. Regime’s military forces shelled the town of Madaya using the armored vehicles positioned in Francis area in Zabadany landscape.

According to sources, electricity is cut, and food and medical supplies are thin.

LCCS also reports defections in the area, including a whole unit, about 25 soldiers, that defected all at once.

EA sources have been able to confirm the presence of Free Syrian Army soldiers in the area, though it is unclear whether the siege started before they arrived, or whether they traveled to the area in order to defend the city.

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Bahrain Special: The Steel Rods of the Police

Police in Bahrain caught on camera throwing metal rods

See also Bahrain Special: Nabeel Rajab's Speech "Our Problem is with the King"
Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Meaningless Amnesty, Cosmetic Speech?

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It is not an understatement to say that an undisciplined police force who fail to adhere to a strict code of conduct are no more than a group of thugs themselves. After all, without such strict codes of behaviour, only a uniform separates the police from the plain clothed baltajiyya.

The regime is facing a crisis of legitimacy, and as Government legitimacy declines, the question "who are the security forces actually protecting?" becomes more pertinent.

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Bahrain Document: A List of 56 People Killed Since 14 February 2011

Ali Alsheikh (killed Sept 2011) & Sayed Hashim (killed Dec 2011)Activist Mohammed Ashoor gives the names and claimed cause of death of 56 people slain since the start of the uprising in Bahrain on 14 February 2011. The list does not appear to include five policemen who have died in the violence:

1- Martyr Ali Mushaima - 14 February 2011 - Killed by birdshot in Al Daih
2- Martyr Fadhil Salman Al Matrook - 15 February 2011 - Killed by birdshot during the funeral of martyr Ali Mushaima
3- Martyr Ali Mansoor Khudair - 17 February 2011 - Killed by birdshot during the first Lulu attack [the assault by security forces on Pearl Roundabout, the symbolic centre of the protests]
4- Martyr Mahmood Abu Taki - 17 February 2011 - Killed by birdshot during the first Lulu attack
5- Martyr Ali Mo'men - 17 February 2011 - Killed near Lulu and left to die on the street
 near Al Gufool traffic lights
6- Martyr Isa Abdul Hussain - 17 February 2011 - Killed by splitting his head open near SMC [Salmaniya Medical Centre]

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