Syria-Turkey Snap Analysis: Has President Assad Started a Military Conflict with Ankara?

Mortar fire from Assad troops lands in Alcakale, Turkey, killing 5

See also Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Double Bombing in Aleppo "Kills Dozens"

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UPDATED

Syrian forces, moving to retake a border crossing in Tal Abyad, north of Al Raqqah, fired mortar rounds on Wednesday into the heart of Alcakale, Turkey, landing in the center of the town. Five people were killed, including at least one child.

The outrage was immediate. By the end of the day, Turkey had invoked Article 4 of the NATO alliance, and NATO had released a statement condemning the Syrian regime's actions. Perhaps more importantly, Turkey scheduled an emergency meeting of Parliament where it is possible that, later this morning, President Erdogan will be granted permission to engage Turkish armed forces in the defence of the border.

Is Turkey bluffing?

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EA Video Analysis: Syria --- The Real Meaning of the Damascus Bombs

The biggest effect of Wednesday's bombings near Army Staff Headquarters and the invasion of the building by insurgents is psychological: "How can President Assad and those who have held power for decades claim to protect their people when they cannot even protect themselves?"

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Assad Proclaims, "We Will Defeat Armed Groups", as His Planes Kill 100s of Civilians

1902 GMT: Syria. The inevitable attack on the border crossing at Tal Abyad, north of Al Raqqah, started earlier this morning. Regime tanks and ground forces finally reached the city after having been blocked yesterday.

However, residents in Turkey expressed panicked concern, as the attack was just on the other side of the border:

The sound of explosions caused fear in Akçakale, as Syrian tanks and artillery pounded rebel positions in Tell Abyad. Smoke from the explosions crossed onto the Turkish side of the border as the battle for the town raged on roughly 300 meters from the frontier.

1842 GMT: Syria. At least 100 people have been killed today by regime forces, according to the LCC:

38 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs, including 17 people who were martyred in Buwaida massacre; 15 in Aleppo; 15 in Homs; 13 in Idlib; 8 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor; 2 in Hama; 1 in Lattakia and 1 in Raqqa,

See our note on the casualty figures posted by the LCC.

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Syria Feature: Who Are the Jihadists? (O'Bagy)

Insurgents at a funeral in Aleppo Province with Islamic flag, 16 September 2012 (Photo: Zain Karam/Reuters)

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The regime’s insistence that jihadist radicals and terrorists instigated and perpetuated the Syrian conflict is indefensible. The Syrian uprising began as a popular resistance against autocracy. Yet as the conflict drags on, a radical Islamist dynamic has emerged within the opposition, and it warrants further scrutiny. The vast majority of syrians opposing the regime are local revolutionaries who espouse varying degrees of personal religious fervor. However, there is a small but growing Salafi-jihadist presence inside Syria. The Syrian Salafi-jihadists have been aided by foreign fighters, some with significant capabilities and connections to al-Qaeda and other international jihadist networks. Their presence among the opposition galvanizes Assad’s support base and complicates U.S. involvement in the conflict.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Iran's Political Diversion

2011 GMT: Syria. While violence is still reported in Aleppo, Homs, and Deir Ez Zor, it appears there has been a last-minute escalation west of Damascus. Artillery fire, coming from the Mezzeh military base, has reportedly targeted Moudamya. Four people have been killed there, and many wounded, as a result of the shelling.

This video reportedly shows fires burning in Mezzeh, the result of shelling. Obviously, because of the darkness, there is no way to verify the location:

1809 GMT: Syria. The LCC has raised today's death toll to 203:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Will the Clashes Around the US Embassies Continue Today?

Friday's peaceful protest in Binnish in northwest Syria against the US-produced film "The Innocence of Muslims"

See also MENA Audio Feature: Beginner's Guide to the Mohammad Film and the Violence --- Scott Lucas with the BBC
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Re-Focusing on the Conflict

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2105 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees have updated today's death toll to 144, including 65 in Damascus and its suburbs, 23 in Aleppo Province, 22 in Idlib Province, and 15 in Deir Ez Zor Province.

1745 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees report that 127 people have been killed by security forces today, including 57 in Damascus and its suburbs, 20 in Aleppo Province --- among them, an entire family in Daret Azzah --- and 20 in Idlib Province.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The "New Normal" --- Death From the Air

People in the Sekkari section of Aleppo in Syria flee shelling on Wednesday

See also Yemen Feature: 29 Dead in 8 Days as US Drone Attacks Escalate
Syria 1st-Hand: The Making of an Insurgent --- The Story of Abboud Barri
Wednesday's Bahrain Live Coverage: Shutting Away Political Prisoners, Shutting Away the News
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Free Syrian Army Tries to Re-Structure and Assert Control

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2055 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of citizen journalist Mohamed Zakoor being struck and killed as he shot this video in Aleppo:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: At Least 250 Civilians Die on Monday

See Also Today's Bahrain Live Coverage: Will High-Profile Activists Receive Court Verdicts Today?
Jordan Feature: The Government's Threat to Internet Freedom (Tarawneh)
Bahrain Opinion: You Can Imprison the 13 Activists. You Cannot Imprison Their Ideas.
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: At Least 1600 Killed in the Deadliest Week

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2034 GMT: Syria. A second video claiming to show the jet downed in Idlib:

Another video of the MiG that was downed in #Idlib today. youtube.com/watch?v=7kquGa… The pilot was shot in the head while parachuting. #Syria

— Abdullah Aldahhan (@SyrianSmurf) September 4, 2012

The Blogger Brown Moses adds this context:

The man talking to the camera in the video is Jamaal Maaruf, the leader of Shuhada Jebel al-Zawiya Battalion (thanks for Asher Berman for that ID, who explains that the battalion has been attacking Abu Dhuhur air base for 6 days, and the jets are being used to attack civilians.

According to Brown Moses, the jet in question appears to be a Mig 21, based on pictures he has posted on his analysis.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Unavoidable Change on the Ground

See also Saturday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 10,000s March Outside Manama

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2128 GMT: Yemen. At least eight people have been killed by a US drone strike on two vehicles in Radaa in the centre of the country.

"Five were killed and eight injured and we are still investigating who these men are and in what way they were linked to al Qaeda," one official said.

Three women were also killed in the strike, a local tribal chief claimed. He said that the strike had targeted Abdulraouf al-Dahab, a local al-Qaeda leader, but that it failed to kill him.

Some tribesmen and military officials said that no fighters had been killed in the air strike, in which 14 civilians, including three women and three children, died. The officials said Sunday's airstrikes were based on faulty intelligence that the passengers were al-Qaeda members.

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Iran Interview: Ali Larijani on the Nuclear Issue, Syria, and Detained Opposition Leader Mousavi (Slavin)

While in Tehran to cover the Non-Aligned Movement's summit, Barbara Slavin of Al Monitor spoke with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Larijani's line on Iran's nuclear programme is the expected one. So is his assurance that sanctions are not hampering the Islamic Republic and his appeal to leave Syrian President Bashar al-Assad alone.

What may be more interesting is Larijani's effective declaration that opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi --- held under strict house arrest, without criminal charge, for 18 1/2 months --- will remain in limbo.

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