Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu to Get Narrow Acceptance of US Incentives, Palestinians Set Aside (For Now)

It has not been a week of progress for Palestinian officials. The reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas have failed to show any signs of reconciling, and Yasser Abed Rabbo, Secretary-General of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told reporters Sunday that he and his colleagues were in the dark on other important matters: 

The Palestinian side is unaware of the details of the talks between the Israeli side and the Americans concerning finding a middle-ground form over freezing settlements. Once we receive an official American response, the Palestinian leadership would study it.

Beyond this feigned surprise, it is obvious that Ramallah is not confident with the proposal to West Jerusalem.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: More US "Incentives" to Netanyahu; Little Cost to West Jerusalem

So Netanyahu continues to pile up Israel's possible victories. Washington has put even more goodies on the table for the limited step of a limited restriction on new Israeli settlements. Moreover, Netanyahu still has the "recognition of Israel as a Jewish State" card in his hand --- if the Palestinians will not make this commitment in advance of negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister may say with regret that honest talks cannot resume.

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The Latest from Iran (11 November): "The Safest Country in the World"

1440 GMT: Cartoon of Day. Nikahang Kowsar portrays the rejection of Iran's candidacy for the Execution Board of a new UN agency on women's rights --- the UN says to a disguised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "Sister! You Don't Look Much Like A Woman."

1435 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tabriz student activists have protested the ongoing immunity of Iranian officials from prosecution over the post-election abuses and killings at the Kahrizak detention centre.

The demonstration took place on the anniversary of the death, in mysterious circumstances, of Ramin Pourandarjani, a physician at Kahrizak.

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Israel-US Analysis: West Jerusalem Runs Settlement Circles Around Washington

The responses came quickly to Israel's announcement on Monday that 1,300 Jewish homes had been approved for construction beyond the Green Line in East Jerusalem and another 800 homes had been endorsed in the West Bank settlement of Ariel.

The State Department conveyed its "disappointment". The European Union urged Israel to reconsider its decision, and President Obama warned that the construction  in East Jerusalem could obstruct the pursuit of peace in the Middle East: "This kind of activity is never helpful when it comes to peace negotiations."

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Iran Snapshot: The Nuke Talks Take Over

UPDATE 1420 GMT: In the middle of Agence France Presse's report on the speech of President Ahmadinejad, this curious reference: "On Tuesday, Iran informed the six powers that it was ready for talks with them on November 23 or December 5 in Istanbul, according to a European diplomat."

Up to now, indications were that the proposed date was 15 November.

UPDATE 0910 GMT: Mahmoud, Let's Cut to the Chase. A lot of posturing by President Ahmadinejad in a speech in Qazvin in central Iran today, after he opened, "Iran is ready to hold talks on equal conditions to help settle ongoing problems, ease international concerns and establish peace and security in the world."

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Israel Analysis: Netanyahu in New Orleans on Iran, De-Legitimisation, and a "Secure Peace"

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the General Assembly of the Jewish Federations of North America in New Orleans. His issues were simple: the greatest threat of Iran and the attempt to "de-legitimise" Israel.

Netanyahu first set out the menace of Tehran:

The greatest danger facing Israel and the world is the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. Iran threatens to annihilate Israel. It denies the Holocaust. It sponsors terror.  It confronts America in Afghanistan and Iraq.  It dominates Lebanon and Gaza. It establishes beachheads in Arabia and in Africa. It even spreads its influence into this hemisphere, into South America.  

Now, this is what Iran is doing without nuclear weapons. Imagine what it would do with them. Imagine the devastation that its terror proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas and others, would wreak under an Iranian nuclear umbrella.

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The Latest from Iran (8 November): Talks, Threats, and Sanctions

2050 GMT: Talking Tough (US Edition). The chest-puffing of loud but tangential Senator Lindsay Graham that the US should act against Tehran "not to just neutralize their nuclear program, but to sink their navy, destroy their air force, and deliver a decisive blow to the Revolutionary Guard" has not only prompted a torrent of Chicken Little sky-is-falling chatter in Washington circles. It has, equally predictably, brought counter-chest-puffing from the Iranian regime.

Revolutionary Guard Commander Masoud Jazayeri has announced that the US does not know that it is Iran's hostage in the region, while Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei differs: Washington does know about Tehran's clout.

2045 GMT: Talking Tough. Brigadier-General Ahmad Reza Radan, the Deputy Commander of Iran's police, has said violators must be dealt with before start of subsidy cuts.

Radan's declaration is in sharp contrast to the assurance by the Minister of Interior last week that subsidy cuts are a "popular issue and we don't need security measures".

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Israel Analysis: What is on Netanyahu's Mind as He Visits US?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in New Orleans for the Jewish Federations of North America General Assembly, asked US Vice President Joe Biden to create a credible threat in the form of a military campaign to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

So, the four rounds of economic sanctions in the last four years against Tehran is insufficient for West Jerusalem, which wants the prospect of US military power days after the Republicans gained the majority in the lower house of Congress. Netanyahu is reportedly prepared to support his argument with intelligence reports saying that Tehran only halted its uranium-enrichment process in 2003 when Washington was still threatening to bomb.

Netanyahu's second subject will be the deadlocked negotiations with the Palestinians.

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Post-Election Israel-US Analysis: Why Obama Should Seek More than "Empathy" with Netanyahu

Given that the Republicans are still a minority in the Senate, Obama's defeat on Tuesday was far from comprehensive. Even if it was, it does not follow that adopting a pro-Israeli position turns setback into success: the invocation that Obama needs "political empathy", making the analogy with President Clinton in 1994, when he "quickly adjusted his polices and moved toward the center" is shallow, both in its assumption of the same situation in 2010 and 16 years earlier and its dismissal of considerations beyond the domestic.

Beyond the Republicans, the US faces other powers --- from Ankara to Damascus to Tehran --- who wish to assert their influence in the region. So where is Washington's front line: in an artificial "empathy" at home or in a decisive move abroad to get a real gain, one which be useful at the ballot boxes in 2012 but have much greater benefits before that?

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Israel-Palestine: Is There Hope in West Jerusalem's "Interim Solution"?

To save the direct Israel-Palestine talks, or possibly just to save face, secret negotiations are reportedly going on between Washington and West Jerusalem. One proposal involves  "leasing lands in East Jerusalem from future Palestinian state for 40-99 years", according to the London-based Arabic language daily Asharq al-Awsat. 

Is there more? On Saturday, the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported that Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to convince the US administration to accept a plan for an "interim solution" based on a 10-year transition which the Palestinian state will be established on temporary borders. According to this plan, the Jerusalem and the right of return issues will be bypassed and the temporary borders will be the current Israeli security fence/Separation Wall. Israel will lease the Jordan Valley for 40 years and Israel Defense Forces bases will remain at entrances to West Bank cities. 

The bottom line is that Israel would remain control over 40 percent of the West Bank during the planned interim period.

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