US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks tonight about the ceasefire in Gaza
I spoke this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist --- after last night's rebuff by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a ceasefire but before this evening's apparent agreement to stop fighting --- about the political and military dimensions of the situation in Gaza for Israel, Hamas, the US, Egypt, and other countries.
On a street running along the Gaza City waterfront, three young men --- one armed --- were celebrating. They waved at a man driving by blowing his horn. Above their heads a loudspeaker on a mosque repeated over and over: Allahu Akbar.
Part of the celebration is relief that, hopefully, the eight days and nights of bombing and shelling are now at an end and people can sleep safely. Or sleep at all.
But there is also a mood of victory.
"Israel begged for a ceasefire because it could not stop our rockets," said Adel Mansour, who was without a gun. "They bombed us, they killed our women and children, but they could not stop the resistance. So they had to surrender and agree to stop the assassinations. They learned we cannot be defeated by their bombs."
Statements by Hillary Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night
The US once more returned itself to the margins. For many international actors, Washington is now no more than the backer of West Jerusalem. That leaves the diplomatic space for others --- notably the Egyptians and the Turks --- to try and occupy.
And that in turn not only affects the US position over the Israel-Palestine issue. It will have immediate effects for situations such as the handling of the Syrian crisis and the approach to Iran. And the longer that the fighting and death continues in Gaza, the greater the effect on the Obama Administration's long-term capital --- if it has any --- in the region and beyond.
1935 GMT: The Bedouin civilian who was killed after a rocket attack from Gaza on Eshkol Regional Council has been named as Alayaan Salem al-Nabari from the southern Negev desert.
1931 GMT: Several hours ago, rumours were flying about a possible ceasefire announcement at 1900 GMT. This was subsequently denied by officials on both sides, but the possibility remained. However, things seem far from a ceasefire right now. Al Jazeera English journalist Jacky Rowland reports that there appears to be an "escalation" of attacks on northern Gaza. Speaking to the station she said:
There has been sustained heavy artillery fire coming into the northern Gaza Strip from tanks lined up along the Israeli border.
Citizen journalist @RenaGaza, in Gaza, uploads this audio recording reportedly capturing the sounds of live ammunition, taken about 20 minutes ago:
1857 GMT: Electronic Intifada speaks to workers at the Shifa hospital in Gaza. Ibrahim Jirjawi, a nurse on the orthopedic ward, says:
It's very hard now, with many injured people coming every hour. Women and children outnumbered men, especially with the new wave [of attacks] targeting houses and civilian buildings.
In the last hour, Haaretz reports that Gaza hospitals are reporting severe shortage in medical supplies.
It's more dangerous now than before, and we expect that things will be worse if ground operations start.
1854 GMT: According to IBA Radio, the second person killed after a rocket attack from Gaza on Eshkol Regional Council was a Bedouin civilian. An IDF soldier was also killed in the attack.
1849 GMT: Ceasefire news. The Turkish Foreign Secretary Davutoglu has said:
#FMDavutoglu “ A ceasefire aggrement was reached. The ceasefire will come into effect at midnight” #Gaza
1842 GMT: The IDF tweets that it has attacked an Islamic Jihad site in Gaza, killing Yunis Shaluf, whom they claim "was responsible for rocket fire on Eilat several months ago".
Two teenage brothers have been killed and an unknown number wounded in an Israeli strike on a home near the Rafah border crossing, according to local reports. The names of the dead were given as Ahmad al-Nasasra, 17, and Mohammed al-Nasasra, 15.
This matches other social media reports we've seen, including this picture which was posted on Facebook:
Ahmad and his brother Muhammed AL-Nasasra were murdered...An Israeli missile leveled a home in Rafah
2132 GMT: Amnesty International has called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council "to impose an international arms embargo on Israel, Hamas, and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza".
Speaking about the current crisis, Amnesty International’s MENA Deputy Director Ann Harrison also said that the NGO has "serious concerns" that Palestinians are being killed by "indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks by Israeli forces.
2056 GMT: The Israeli government has approved the activation of up to 75,000 reservists, according to Al-Jazeera English, citing local Israeli media reports.
2049 GMT: Global Post journalist Noga Tarnopolsky reports that Israeli media has confirmed the deaths of senior Hamas commanders Ahmed Abu Jalal and Khaled Sha'er earlier today. Abu Jalal was reportedly killed in an air strike on the in al-Maghazi refugee camp, whilst Sha'er was killed on his motorbike in Deir Al Balah.
Interestingly, Egypt's new government has been actively engaged in fighting these extremist groups in Sinai for well over a year.
1948 GMT: War is often good for arms companies. Reuters reports that Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak "will seek cabinet approval for funds that could provide Israel with three new Iron Dome rocket interceptors". Israel currently has four Iron Dome interceptors and will soon receive a fifth, manufactured by state-owned company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
2239 GMT: It's been hard to balance the reports of intense bombing and explosions in Gaza with the similar reports from Israel. The clearest reason for this is that most rockets fired from Gaza do not appear to have landed near residences. Contrast this with the explosions in Gaza which are happening in the center of heavily populated areas.
One need look no further than Israel's own IDF Spokesperson Twitter account to see this play out. Below is their latest summary:
Since start of the operation: 300 terrorist sites targeted in #Gaza. +300 rockets struck #Israel. +130 missiles intercepted by Iron Dome
If this is true, then the number of rockets that have been launched from Gaza are equal to the amount of sites in Gaza that Israel says it has hit. However, the IDF has barely produced any pictures or video of the damage on the groun in Israel. Instead, they have focused on how effective their own airstrikes have been:
Washington Post front page with BBC Arabic's Jihad Misharawi holding body of his 11-month-old son, killed in Israeli airstrike
Can we talk about the attack?
"There is no safe place. You get some flour, some sugar, some other necessities, and you stay home and you wait the rockets out. Remember the last time they attacked Gaza?
"There were about 400 fighters killed, but 1,100 civilians. There is no safe place for people to hide. Gaza is small and pretty much all just houses. Hamas is running about between them. How do you kill Hamas members without killing civilians?"
Does Hamas care?
"It's an investment, both for the Israelis and Hamas. After this operation is finished --- whatever it is --- Hamas will be stronger, people will feel that Hamas is the one fighting israel and giving martyrs from among its leadership. It's not easy to punish the militants. You can kill a few hundred, but it doesn't hurt them. It's very easy to administer Gaza, it's small, you can do whatever you want with a few thousand men. And Israel has an election so [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu will get what he wants."
Obama has four years to craft a legacy, and there is reason to suspect he wants to include a Nobel Peace Prize with no accomplishment justifying it.
Taking another crack at a tenable two-state solution is as daunting as ever, but the cost is lower than once thought. Furthermore, after this past Tuesday, perhaps Republicans will realize that being superficially “pro-Israel” is irrelevant to the voters they most need to reach. The GOP will not help, but perhaps it will not stand in the way.
Thursday, November 22, 2012 at 16:07 | ;)
