Iran Prescription: Oh My God, Tehran Almost Has The Bomb! (Repeat as Necessary)

Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear bomb! That is not me getting  hysterical --- it's US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in an interview on American television:

"The consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon."

Panetta is not the only Cassandra. His statement echoes that made by Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak last November about the 'when' of Iran's supposed nuclear weapons program.

All very worrying. Just as it has been worrying on every occasion over the last 7 1/2 years when Iran was on the verge of The Bomb.

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The Latest from Iran (14 November): Playing the Foreign Card

See also Iran Propaganda 101: Nanodiamonds, Nukes, "Western Officials", and The Washington Post
Iran Feature: Did Someone Murder the Son of 2009 Presidential Candidate Rezaei?
The Latest from Iran (13 November): An Explosion at a Military Base

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1645 GMT: The Bahrain Plot. Tehran has denied any link to an alleged plot to stage attacks in Bahrain, as a lawyer for two of the five suspects said reports of their confessions were not true.

Bahraini authorities said this weekend that Qatar had handed over four men who planning to attack the Interior Ministry, the Saudi Embassy, and a causeway linking Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. A fifth man was arrested in Bahrain.

On Sunday, the public prosecution's spokesman said the plot was coordinated with the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia as well as two Bahraini opposition figures in London.

1630 GMT: The Explosion. The reaction of Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to the news of Saturday's blast at a Revolutionary Guards base, reportedly killing 17 people?

"May there be more like it."

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Iran Feature: Explaining the Israeli "War Talk" --- Look to the Domestic Politics...And Who Wins (Zilber)

Israeli posturing is for the benefit of the international community, to increase pressure on Iran.  The only difference this time is the heightened intensity of the internal debate within the Israeli security establishment, which is leaking out in torrents.

The benefits to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak of this media campaign are immense, and are not just limited to the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency report and potential UN Security Council action

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The Latest from Iran (3 November): Threats, Threats, More Threats

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2135 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. More on the alleged Presidential assault on his rivals from the pro-Ahmadinejad site Dolate Ma --- the President reportedly said he could reveal 10% of his information now and 25% in the future, but it was "not advisable" to disclose the rest.

Ahmadinejad added that the "day of regret is near" and said his foes are going to "apologise for accusing the Government": "The current situation is not normal; we are approaching the final showdown."

As for the current financial scandal, including the $2.6 billion bank embezzlement, the President said "people were dissatisfied" with those who "came barefoot from the south of town [the south of Tehran is the poorer section of the capital] and are billionaires now".

Ahmadinejad continued, "If you allow me to handle them in my way, I will rebuke [the political wrongdoers in 1 month. Even Europe and the US together can't bring the Government to its knees."

And now the sting in the tail, of interest to those who specialise in following the in-fighting in Tehran. Ahmadinejad said, "In 2009 'they' wanted to congratulate the opposition [on victory in the Presidential election]."

And who does Ahmadinejad mean by 'they'? Well, soon after the election, it was claimed --- by the camp of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and later by other politicians --- that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani had told Mousavi on Election Day that he won the vote. Other reports said the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, also sent the message.

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When Israel & Turkey Co-operated: West Jerusalem Asks Ankara for Help with Hamas

In a week when Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman threatened to punish Turkey by supporting the Kurdish insurgency PKK, this document, released by WikiLeaks, is a useful reminder of public illusions and private politics --- even as Israel criticised Ankara's acceptance of Hamas as a legitimate political force, it was trying to take advantage of Turkey's relationship with the Gazan leadership.

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Turkey-Israel Feature: Why There is a Downward Spiral in Relations

On Friday, the relationship between Israel and Turkey deteriorated further: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would provide an armed escort for a new flotilla to break the blockade on Gaza, while Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman proposed measures from a warning against travel to or through Turkey to support of the Kurdish insurgency PKK.

So what does the tension demonstrate? For all the differences between Israel and Turkey: it shows the two powers can agree on one thing --- playing to domestic audiences with declaration of their foreign policy interests. 

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Israel Analysis: Netanyahu Cabinet Quarrels Over Peace and Security as Settlements Expand

Speaking in Miami last week, President Obama addressed Israel’s security concerns within the context of the “new” Middle East. He said,“I'm actually confident that 10 years from now we're going to be able to look back and say that this was the dawning of an entirely new and better era.”

The statement came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to announce his “grand plan” in May, calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state with temporary borders as part of an interim peace agreement.

Netanyahu met resistance from his own Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, who said that immediate immediate action was necessary and sought clarity from the Prime Minister: ""A permanent agreement has a chance only if Israel would be willing to clearly say what would come after it....A permanent agreement has a chance only if Israel would be willing to clearly say what would come after it.”

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Israel Analysis: Can West Jerusalem Put Palestine Above Iran's "Existential Threat"?

1) Was departing Mossad chief Meir Dagan really pressing the Government by saying it is not the right time to focus on Iran's nuclear programmes at a time when the Palestinian issue should be the one on the table? Was he reinforcing this as a window of opportunity by saying that there is no way to envisage an Iranian nuclear weapon within the next four years?

2) Even if Netanyahu's Forum of Seven agrees to a limited number of concessions following the departure of Defense Minister Ehud Barak from the Labor Party, can Netanyahu and/or his coalition partners give up the Iran card? Can they do so at a time when the world "has not learnt its lesson" from the Holocaust and "there is a great island of instability" in the region, which can even put the peace made with Cairo in jeopardy?

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Israel Latest: Turkel Committee on Gaza Flotilla Raid "Self-Defense for a Legal Blockade"

In the first part of its findings,  the Turkel Commission, an Israeli panel of enquiry into last May's Israeli raid on the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla, declared that commandos acted in self-defense when they boarded the lead ship, killing nine Turkish citizens. The committee said that Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip does not break international law, adding that Israel had also complied with the humanitarian conditions for such a blockade.

The official report did express some criticism of West Jerusalem, calling on officials to "examine the medical needs of the people of Gaza in order to find ways to improve the current situation" and to find ways to "focus its sanctions on Hamas while avoiding harm against the civilian population".

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Israel Snapshot: Labour Party Splits; How Will It Affect Coalition and Peace Talks?

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his Cabinet that the Palestinian Authority was refusing to return to negotiations with Israel because of the Labor Party's threats to leave the coalition.

A day later, the story was not that Labor had left but that the party had split. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that he would quit and,  with four of Labor's remaining 12 MKs (Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai, and members of the Knesset Shalom Simhon, Einat Wilf, and Ori Noked), form a new party called Atzmaut (Independence).

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