US-Iran Analysis: Obama's Policy --- All Tactics, No Strategy? (Farhi)

Both sides are caught in narratives developed not only to antagonize one another, but also to appease their respective domestic audiences. While Obama’s extension of an offer to Iran for direct negotiations without preconditions was initially promising, the U.S. government ultimately reverted to Bush Administration tactics, attempting to exploit Iran’s domestic weakness to obtain concessions in the international arena.  Rather than success, however, this strategy has prompted the Iranian government to counter with strident rhetoric and increased domestic political repression, in the name of defending against foreign intervention in Iranian affairs. So far, the only thing that can be said with confidence about the failed nuclear negotiations is that the real losers in this political game of brinksmanship have been the Iranian, urban middle class and private sector, which have become increasingly unsettled and confused in the face of an economic pinch from abroad and political repression at home.

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Iran Feature: Revolutionary Guards Speak Out Against Ahmadinejad (Theodoulou)

Analysts suspect the [Revolutionary Guards'] magazine was encouraged to publish the [critical] article by the office of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If so, however, this does not mean there is a major rift between the ayatollah and the president: it is more likely to be a warning shot aimed at reining in Mr Ahmadinejad, analysts said.

"It [the article] should not be turned into a narrative of withdrawal of support for Ahmadinejad and a sign of his imminent downfall," said Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. "But it should give pause to those who keep explaining Ahmadinejad's success in maintaining power in terms of his base of support in the Guards."

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The Latest from Iran (15 September): Ahmadinejad and His Challenges

1710 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Move --- A Reminder (see 1310 and 1325 GMT). The Associated Press, for inexplicable reasons, is reporting that the President has "demoted" six aides from "senior envoys" to "advisors" for international affairs.

No, that's not a demotion, that's just another name for Ahmadinejad's staff as they take on foreign policy posts. (And AP might have noted that the President, far from backing down in the face of the Supreme Leader's criticism, has added two envoys-now-advisors to the four he originally named.)

And while we're talking who is trying to claim Iran's foreign policy, let's note a statement from the office of one of Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidents: it was the President who took the final decision on the release of US hiker Sarah Shourd, acting "for humanitarian reasons".

1700 GMT: Oil Squeeze (Subsidy Cut Edition). Tehran has postponed increasing the price of gasoline, despite the subsidy cut plan which was to be implemented next week.

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