Iran Analysis: The Detentions Reach the Supreme Leader --- So How Far Does the Opposition Go?

In the last 48 hours, the family and supporters of Mehdi Karroubi have re-stated their claims and grievances against the detention of Karroubi and his wife Fatemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard. They are pointing not only to the sudden arrests but the lies of Iranian officials as they deny that any move has taken place, even insisting that the four opposition figures are "in comfort" in their homes.

But, in the last 48 hours, the Karroubi camp has not just called for the release of their patriarch or for more lenience. Instead, they have named names about those whom they blame for the arrest of the Karroubi.

And at the top of the list is the Supreme Leader.

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The Latest from Iran (3 March): Disconnects

2340 GMT: Khamenei Watch. The Supreme Leader spent six hours at the Ministry of Intelligence today. He praised the work of the staff and called for long-term plans with comprehensive strategic initiatives.

2330 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Back from a break for the Cambridge University debate to catch up with the evening's news....

Ministry of Intelligence forces have again raided the empty home of prominent reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh and his wife Fakhrosaadat Mohtashamipour.

Tajzadeh, a former Deputy Minister of Interior, was seized the day after the June 2009 Presidential election. He has refused to withdraw the allegation that the vote was manipulated, ensuring his continued imprisonment.

Mohtashamipour was detained during Tuesday's demonstrations.

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Iran Document: Karroubi's Son "When My Parents Were Taken Away and Illegally Arrested"

Mehdi and Fatemeh KarroubiMohammad Taghi Karroubi, the son of the prominent opposition figures Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, writes of the night last month that his parents were seized by security forces and taken to an unknown location, either in a house of detention or prison:

On Monday, 17 [[Note: other sources have said this should be 21] February 2011, coinciding with the birth of Imam Jafar Sadegh [6th Imam of the Shiites], security forces raided my father's residence, putting an end to the house arrest [of my parents]. In order to conceal the truth, they informed my brother [Ali] that my father's house arrest had ended and that his children were now free to visit with him. Upon hearing the news, Ali and his wife immediately went to my father's home, only to find 30 masked security agents inside their residence. My father was locked in a room on the first floor and my mother was being held on the 5th floor.

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The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Prison...And On the Streets?

2050 GMT: Deutsche Welle carries this account from a participant in the protest in Tehran (translation by Tehran Bureau):

The number of security forces today in Tehran was higher than February 14 and 20. There were a lot of plainclothesmen. The security forces hit the protesters hard in an attack at Vali Asr Crossroads and closed off the area. They fired a few shots in the air and the crowd dispersed.

We waited for half an hour in one of the side streets of Vali Asr and then exited with a few others. In the dark and cold, we started walking toward Enghelab and Azadi Squares. The entire crowd were walking toward the west on the sidewalks, but there were a lot of plainclothesmen among the people....Every now and then, security forces would politely take someone aside and check their camera, cell phone, bag, or wallet and then take a picture. I could see people on scaffolds, taking people's pictures from a wide angle after a minute's pause.

Right before Navab Avenue, the crowd got denser and security forces moved to disperse them. People quickly turned down side streets. Some said there were clashes on Navab and they don't want people to get there. We went toward Tohid like the other times. Then, we went toward Azadi and saw that people were moving away from the avenue because there were clashes down there. People were being attacked by security forces and plainclothesmen....

Security forces had brutally attacked protesters. Some people told us they had fired shots in the air repeatedly.

I can't say how many people were there. But I can tell you that half the people on the sidewalks were security forces and Basij.

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Iran Keepsake: A Commemorative Poster of the Political Prisoners

A new poster featuring the pictures of Iran's political prisoners, including recent detainees Mir Hossein Mousavi (second row, right), his wife Zahra Rahnavard (top row, right), and Fatemeh and Mehdi Karroubi (top and second rows, second from right):

Iran Analysis: The Regime Arrests Mousavi and Karroubi in the Race Between Fear and Hope

It was going to happen. For the past 20 months, not a day has gone by without the opposition voicing the fear that the Green Movement’s two leading figures would be arrested. Now those concerns have been borne out, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, along with their wives and political activists Zahra Rahnavard and Fatemeh Karroubi, were detained. But whether they were arrested now or 20 months ago makes little difference.

The two men, holed up in their homes and guarded by security forces, already had very little freedom of movement; they have effectively been under house arrest for the past several months. So there is no shock in their transfer to a house of detention, run by the Ministry of Intelligence and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Instead, the significance lies elsewhere, as an indication of how the political situation has changed on the ground in Iran.

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The Latest from Iran (28 February): The Regime's Escalation

2030 GMT: Not the Same. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told journalists in Geneva, "There is absolutely no comparison between what is happening in the countries in the region and what has happened in Iran in a few incidents." He declared that Iran had only experienced a few "manipulated protests, while mass movements in the nations in the region are authentic, popular and people's movements".

Salehi said his government was "shocked" by Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi's resort to force against civilians and hoped that "the power is transferred through legal means to the people".

2025 GMT: The Arrests. Zahra Eshraghi, human rights activist and granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written on her Facebook page, "If Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are anti-revolutionary, the Imam Khomeini must be as well."

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Iran Special: Latest on the Regime's Detention of Opposition Figures Mousavi, Rahnavard, and Karroubi

On Sunday morning we posted the confirmation that key opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard had been moved to a house of detention controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

James Miller of EA has established a LiveBlog on his website Dissected News to cover this development, which we consider one of the most significant in the crisis after the disputed Presidential election of June 2009. EA is linking to this LiveBlog and Dave Siavashi's Iran News Now, as well as posting the latest news as we get it.

28 FEBRUARY

2010 GMT: The children of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard and of Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi have written an open letter to the regime challenging the detention of their parents: "We believe that our parents did not commit a crime but only applied the divine language in their statement. Are you are so afraid of the facts stated in public view that you must imprison them?"

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The Latest from Iran (24 February): The Mousavi-Karroubi Question

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The debate over Hashemi Rafsanjani's future as head of the Assembly of Experts continues. MP Hojatoleslam Seyed Reza Akrami has jumped in on Khabar Online, declaring that criticism of Rafsanjani is "against law and morality".

2120 GMT: Assessing Crackdowns. Majid Mohammadi, writing for Gooya, offers a sharp analysis of regimes "managing street protests" and setting limits on the killing of dissenters, comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Iran.

2110 GMT: Tonight's Regime Show. The Internet chatter this evening is not about the opposition but about the performance of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on national television.

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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Taking a Break?

2144 GMT: Election and Sedition. Another take-away from the Supreme Leader's speech to Basij militia today....

Ayatollah Khamenei said the post-election protesters put their desire for power above the Islamic Republic in a “complex sedition” which endangered the “interests of the country and the righteousness of its path". He added, “They acted in such a way that drew the excitement and support of Western leaders and the Iranian nation’s first grade enemies.”

The Supreme Leader also laid down the lines on loyalty: “A society is either led by the just Imam...or it is run by human beings who know nothing of righteousness....It cannot be any other way.”

2138 GMT: Controlling the Mourning. As the anniversary of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Commander Mohammad Reza Heydari has announced the establishment of "Muharram Police" in Qom to control religious ceremonies.

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