Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo (Chulov)

Members of the Free Syrian Army in Salaheddin in Aleppo on Monday

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The attack came just after 2pm on Monday; two Soviet era Mig fighter jets swept in low from the west, then banked and made a run at the schoolhouse. The impact of the bombs was devastating on the two homes they struck. Fabricated concrete spilled across the street and a nine-year-old girl lay dismembered in the ruins.

The first stronghold established by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the war-torn city of Aleppo had been hit by regime jets, in an attack that failed to take out the rebel leadership but instead killed nine members of a family in a nearby house.

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Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict

Riyad HijabOne of the most striking claims over Prime Minister Riyad Hijab's defection is that the Assad regime not only picked Hijab to help lead it out of crisis but also threatened him with death. This may be an assertion to curry favour with the opposition, but if it is true, this means that President Assad really does not have anyone he can trust or turn to without fear of consequences. It could mean that the only reason there are not more defections is fear, but --- with the decision of Hijab and his brothers to leave Syria --- it is a fear that is slipping.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Fighting Reaches Aleppo

Sounds of fighting in the Saif al Dawleh section of Aleppo, Syria's largest city, this morning

See also Syria Snapshot: As Refugees Surge, Jordan Turns Some Away
Syria Analysis: Why the Regime Could Lose Aleppo
Syria Audio Feature: "Assad May Be Slipping from Power" --- Scott Lucas with the BBC
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Story is Beyond Damascus

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2020 GMT: Syria. Turkish police have fired tear gas on stone-throwing Syrian refugees, protesting at the lack of food and water in camps.

A Turkish official said demonstrations erupted at two of the 10 camps set up along the border sheltering more than 40,000 Syrians.

"We have had no food for three days," said a young Syrian boy standing outside the container city of Kilis, which is home to some 15,000 people.

1936 GMT: Iraq. Bombs in several towns have killed at least 17 people and injured dozens, in one of the most violent days in the past two weeks.

Two parked car bombs exploded near an entrance of a public market in Mahmodiya, a town 30 kilometres (19 miles) south of Baghdad, and another exploded close to the town's police station. Five people were killed and 28 wounded.

In Madaeen, 30 kilometres southeast of the Iraqi capital, three IEDs exploded inside a crowded al-Tameem market just before the evening meal for Ramadan, killing six people and wounding 13 others.

Car bombs planted near a public restraunt in Najaf, 160 kilometres (100 miles) south of Baghdad, killed five people and wounded 14, and a policeman was killed and 16 others were injured when a car bomb exploded in the Mosul district.

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Syria Analysis: Why the Regime Could Lose Aleppo

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A scenario. The regime will continue to fight for control of the supply lines that run from Damascus to Homs, Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo. As it does so, it will lose more territory to the north and east of Aleppo. The vice will eventually close on the city, and it will fall to the FSA.

And if Aleppo falls, this war is over. Assad will then lose all of Idlib Province --- which has in effect already happened --- then Hama, then Homs.

In short, unless there is a surprising change in the course of this fight, every indication is that the President Assad cannot win this war.

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Syria Opinion: "Insurgency, Not Diplomacy, Will End This Conflict"

The Kurdish flag is raised in Amouda in northeast Syria after the opposition took control of the town

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I was struck at how today's headlines had missed the boat. Assad's military was shelling Damascus because it had lost control of large swathes of the capital city - THAT was the headline. The UN story is a distraction for the same reason: it misses the big picture.

That big picture? It is now a near-certainty, whether we like it or not, that insurgency rather than diplomacy will end this conflict. The victories of the Free Syrian Army, and/or their defeats, will determine the course of this contest and how long it will take.

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Syria Analysis: It's Not Quite "The Battle for Damascus"...But It's An Important Fight

Fighting has been now raging in neighbourhoods of Damascus for more than three days. Even a quick look at an interactive map of the fighting, posted on Monday, established that the regime has a serious challenge on its hands, as it has been unable to dislodge insurgent fighters from the southern part of the capital:

View Syria - 2012 July 16 - EA Worldview in a larger map

EA's in-depth assessment of the Free Syrian Army, posted last Wednesday, assessed that the regime is now weak enough that it is vulnerable to a sudden takeover of the capital, for example through a series of surprise insurgent attacks. So is this the Battle for Damascus?

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Syria Special: 16 Months Later, A History of the Insurgency --- And What It Foreshadows for the Regime

Free Syrian Army fighters celebrate their overrunning of regime soldiers and destruction of armoured vehicles

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Nothing in Syria is certain but Death and Protests. The debate about whether the Free Syrian Army is good for Syria, or whether they can be trusted, or whether they will harbor extremists, will likely continue. However, as the conflict drags on, this debate is becoming increasingly academic, as are the efforts by Kofi Annan and others to negotiate a peace. No fighters, and no commanders, in the Free Syrian Army are in a position to agree this: why should they, as they ride a series of military victories?

Peace is not in Syria's immediate future, nor is the dissolution of its insurgency. The only questions that remain are how long the Assad regime can last, who will fill the void when he is gone, and what will be left of Syria when all that transpires.

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Syria Opinion: Annan Endorses Assad as the "One Authority, One Gun"

Kofi Annan has granted President Assad a carte blanche license to continue the killing, in the name of hunting down an illegal insurgency. The Free Syrian Army, according to this plan, should lay down its weapons and trust that the Assad regime is ready to negotiate cease fires and a political transition. Statements like these read as if the Free Syrian Army started this fire, the Free Syrian Army fired on protesting civilians in the streets of Daraa and Hama and Damascus, and the Assad regime can be trusted with being an unchallenged military force.

And that's just a straight up pro-Assad agenda.

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Syria 1st-Hand: Not Quite Angels --- Making the Free Syrian Army Work as An Institution (Rafeeq)

Rebels are not angels. They sometimes act according to their own perception of what is right. They come from different backgrounds, and many are civilians who have never lived a military life.

Many lack the experience needed to handle with extreme situations.

Since its inception, the FSA has been trying to mitigate individual mistakes by training its members and allocating them individual roles. 

Despite the difficult circumstances, rebels, activists and residents are working toward making the FSA work as an institution.

We have so far been succeeding because we have faith in it.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An International Gathering in Geneva

The moment a mortar or shell hit a funeral procession in the Damascus suburb of Zamalka today --- at least 20 people were reportedly killed (see 1800 GMT)

See also Saudi Arabia Feature: The Professor on Trial for Speaking Out
Syria 1st-Hand: The Stories of the Widows
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 139 Die as Assad Talks of "Eliminating Terrorists" to Save Lives

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2104 GMT: Syria Observers on the Internet appear to be racing ahead of the situation to proclaim US support of military intervention.

The catalyst is a statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the US would "accelerate" its work at the United Nation Security Council on a resolution that would "impose real and immediate consequences for non-compliance" with today's resolution of an international conference for a transitional national unity government, "including sanctions". She continued, "We should endorse this plan in the Security Council, we should endorse it with real consequences, including Chapter 7 sanctions if it is not implemented."

A Chapter 7 action provides for non-military sanctions and/or military action, but chatter is jumping to the presumption that Clinton is indicating the latter.

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