The Latest from Iran (3 December): A Phantom Bombing

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Power Politics Edition). Keep your eyes on this story....

A group of 16 Iranian political prisoners, including prominent reformist politicians Mohsen Aminzadeh and Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalists Bahman Ahmadi Amoui and Mohammad Nourizad have written an open letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, describing their continued incarceration “in violation of the law” and in the “framework of settling political accounts”.

Addressing Rafsanjani in his role as head of the Expediency Council, the detainees said the treatment of political activists in the Islamic Republic today “bears no sign of the principles of the Revolution and its constitution". They maintain that their charges are fabricated and the “heavy sentences and restrictions that they have been handed are part of a political and security plan by the establishment to completely erase the political opposition”.

The prisoners compared the current situation to the political detentions before the 1979 Revolution, with officials forcing prisoners to give false confessions and then issuing sentences based on them: “The issued sentences in view of level and kind of punishment seem to indicate that they have been set by security officials based on their own ideas and personal preference, and relayed to the judges.”

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The Latest from Iran (30 November): Life Beyond Wikileaks

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Nasim Soltanbaygi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

2005 GMT: Strike a (Nuclear) Pose. Back from a break to find President Ahmadinejad carrying out his standard approach --- agree to talks with the "West" but try to establish a position of strength by denouncing the "West" --- in a speech in Sari in northern Iran.

With discussions confirmed with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) in Geneva on 6-7 December, the President charged, "While the Tehran negotiations [with Brazil and Turkey] were underway, you passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation and today you insist on continuing negotiations."

Ahmadinejad said is always ready to enter nuclear negotiations with the West as long as Iran's rights are respected, advising the negotiating side to put away its "tyrannical" attitude.

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Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

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The Latest from Iran (28 November): Politics Does Not Stop

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The names of four of the seven activists detained in Marivan in Iranian Kurdistan have been published.

1550 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The Supreme Leader's represetnative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, has renewed the allegation that the children of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- Mehdi Hashemi and Faezeh Hashemi --- were involved in the 2009 "sedition".

The regime has elevated its threats in recent weeks to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who is currently in London.

1510 GMT: Press Watch. The managing directors of the conservative newspapers Fararu and Tabnak have been convicted of charges in a Tehran court.

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The Latest from Iran (27 November): Breaking News --- Supreme Leader is Fabulous

1335 GMT: Parliament v. President. Someone is getting worried that the effort to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questioning may succeed. Follow this carefully....

The pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming that Ali Motahari, the MP leading the campaign for Ahmadinejad's interpellation, has struck a deal with the reformists: if Motahari can deliver 50 signatures on the petition for the President's appearance, the minority faction will give him 25 endorsements. That would make 75, more than the requirement of 1/4 of the 290-member Majlis.

On the surface, the story appears to be a triumph for Motahari, but I suspect it is an un-subtle attempt to tarnish him by claiming that he has resorted to devious scheming with the dubious reformists. Motahari, for his part, has claimed that almost all the signatures on his petition are from the majority principlist faction.

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The Latest from Iran (26 November): Connect the Meetings

2055 GMT: Parliament v. President. Ali Motahari, the leader of the movement to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questions, said that the demand will be made after the implementation of subsidy cuts. Motahari again said that there were nearly enough signatories --- 1/4 of the 290 MPs --- to call in Ahmadinejad, and that most of those signing were principlists.

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker Ali Larijani, posts a recent history of Parliament-President relations, documenting how Ahmadinejad has faced possible questioning on several previous occasions.

Khabar also claims that the battle for control of the Central Bank continues. Parliament recently voted to take oversight away from the President.

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The Latest from Iran (23 November): More Arrests --- With a Twist?

1930 GMT: Close to Impeachment? Really? This morning (see 0609 GMT) we noted a Wall Street Journal story about the growing dispute between Parliament and President, commending it for noting the conflict but calling it "exaggerated". Here are the dramatic paragraphs:

Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exposing a deepening division within the regime....

Conservative newspapers reported on Monday that lawmakers have started a motion to collect the 74 signatures needed to openly debate impeachment. Mousa Reza Servati, the head of the parliament's budgetary committee, was quoted as saying 40 lawmakers, including Mr. Servati, have signed the motion.

The move to remove the president from office marks the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that parliament has discussed impeachment of a president. Though the legislature is backed by the Iranian constitution, lawmakers can't drive Mr. Ahmadinejad from office without the supreme leader's agreement.

Here is how EA reported the story on Monday: "About 40 lawmakers have signed a petition, sponsored by Ali Motahari, Alireza Zakani, Tavakoli, and Elyas Naderan to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis. At least 74 signatures are necessary for the President to be commanded to appear."

Note the important difference in emphasis. Summoning the President to answer questions in Parliament is not debate of impeachment. Instead, if Ahmadinejad's answers are not satisfactory, then the Parliament can take further action, asking him for better responses. If those are still not suitable, then impeachment may be an option.

That is a long way from the showdown portrayed in the Wall Street Journal. And it certainly does not mean that the Supreme Leader has intervened to block the President's removal.

We are now checking our interpretation, as the Journal story is being repeated as gospel truth by sources such as the BBC and Joe Klein of Time magazine.

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Iran Special Analysis: Grand Ayatollahs, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader's Struggle for "Authority" (Azadi/Lucas)

At least nine of Qom's 12 Grand Ayatollahs have either rejected the Supreme Leader or have serious issues with him and/or his handling of the Government. Those are not good numbers for a Khamenei who wants to, once and for all, establish his authority atop the Iranian system.

Some might say that the senior clerics are peripheral in a political contest where the President and institutions like the Revolutionary Guard are trying to express and sometimes impose power. However, as long as Iran is an "Islamic" rather than "Iranian" system, the maraje carry at least a significant symbolic role.

The Supreme Leader knows that, which is why the path to Qom has been worn out in the last few weeks. And now he has another date to ponder: the 1st anniversary of the passing of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri is next months, coming only days before the religious ceremony of Ashura. Those who cannot come out on the streets to express political frustration and opposition may be considering such a display for the religious commemoration of Montazeri's death.

Security is declared, but so is the threat of sedition. Current Presidents cannot completely vanquish former Presidents. The dead still retain authority and acclaim while the living desperately seek it.

It is a most curious "stability".

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The Latest from Iran (15 November): Watching Rafsanjani, Listening to Karroubi

2045 GMT: Dropping the Sword. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi publicly confirmed the regime's handling of post-election detainees who are allowed out of jail: "If political prisoners hold meetings, issue statements and pursue activities within their political parties, their right to temporary leave of absence from prison will be removed."

2025 GMT: Execution Watch (Prime-Time TV Edition). Looks like the Iranian regime is feeling a bit of pressure on the "human rights" front.....

How else to explain yet another "confession" on national television by Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery and complicity in her husband's murder.

The blurred face of a woman, claimed to be Ashtiani, said, "I am a sinner". (The "confession" was voiced over, as Ashtiani speaks only Azeri.)

The report also contained purported statements by Ashtiani's son, Sajad Ghaderzadeh, and her lawyer, Houtan Kian, both of whom were arrested last month, and of the two German journalists who were trying to interview them.

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The Latest from Iran (9 November): The "Rule of Law"

1610 GMT: Press Watch. ICHRI claims, from a "reliable source inside Hamshahri newspaper", that four senior journalists have been suspended and a reporter has been dismissed. Though there have been many dismissals at Hamshahri Newspaper in the past, the suddenness of the actions has surprised many of the people who work at the newspaper. The source says it is feared that the suspensions are the beginning of an intiative to put in journalists who have the same political orientation as the paper’s management. In the last year, Hamshahri’s management has been filled by individuals who formerly worked in the police force or the judiciary, including Managing Director Mehdi Zakeri.

1508 GMT: A Change of Philosophy. The United Nations Educational and Scientific Organization has withdrawn from the holding of World Philosophy Day in Tehran, less than two weeks before the event.

There had been sustained protests, including an academic challenge led by philosopher and former political prisoner Ramin Jahanbegloo, against UNESCO's persistence in supporting the gathering. The arrangements had been made in 2008 but came under fire amidst post-election conflict, repression, and the Iranian regime's restriction on Western humanities in universities.

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