Iran Analysis: Participate or Boycott? Reformists Debate the 2013 Presidential Election (Kadivar)

The upcoming 2013 presidential election in Iran seems to be activating and deepening the fissures within the Iranian opposition. While parts of the opposition have started deliberating and discussing about participation in the election, other sections oppose participating on principle. A prominent reformist strategist, for example, suggested that election is “an opportunity for organizing and action.” Meanwhile, another famous activist journalist wrote that the only possible election in 2013 is one with the participation of regime “insiders” and no chance for pro-democracy forces to participate. These debates about the opportunities and constraints of the 2013 election reflect a deeper divide in the Iranian opposition about the most effective strategies to transform the polity and build a democratic regime in the future.

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The Latest from Iran (4 September): Back to Business?

See also Iran Feature: Regime to Media "Print Only Hope and Joy About Sanctions"
Iran Snapshot: The Military's New Weapon --- "Deceit Perfume"
The Latest from Iran (3 September): "This Country is Broken"

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2039 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Looks like the President did not heed the command of his officials, noted in our separate feature, to spread only "hope and joy" about the economy and sanctions....

Western media headline Ahmadinejad's statement in his interview, "There are some problems in selling oil and we are trying to manage it," and his effective admission of the impact of sanctions through his accusation that "the enemy" was using "psychological warfare".

The President said the sanctions were "blocking off conduits... like the conduits of selling oil, foreign exchange, our banks and the central bank....We are working to bypass them day and night...[but] most of the time when an obstacle is created, it takes a long time to remove it."

Ahmadinejad did finally find some hope: "We have oil and the world needs it," adding that his government was also running a "very rigid budget".

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The Latest from Iran (10 August): The Regime Fights Isolation

On the right in Persian, “From Iran to Syria, the People’s Right: Peace, Freedom"; on the left in Arabic, “From Syria to Iran, the People’s Right: Peace, Freedom" (poster by Iranian activist Kamyar Behrang)

See also Iran Snap Analysis: So There Was This Conference on Syria in Tehran....
The Latest from Iran (9 August): The Syrian Front

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2000 GMT: Energy Watch. Confirmation of another foreign company's withdrawal from development of Iran's oil and gas resources, as Deputy Oil Minister Alireza Zeighami said the contract with the Malaysian SKS Company for the implementation of the Shiraz Pars Refinery project has been revoked.

Zeighami gave the formulaic statement that the annulment was due to the firm’s repeated delays and failure to start the construction and financing of the project, adding that Iranian contractors will now take over the construction of the refinery.

In the last years, Italian, French, Dutch, Russian, and Chinese companies have all withdrawn from oil and gas projects amid sanctions and other economic constraints, with Iran formally declaring that the firms had failed to fulfil obligations.

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Iran Analysis: Is This the Last Elected President? (Alam)

A trial balloon floated by Iran’s Supreme Leader last year is coming closer to reality and with it, the prospect that Iran’s political system will become even less representative of popular will.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei first raised the idea in October of abolishing the directly elected Iranian presidency by highlighting the regime’s flexibility for institutional change. At the time, his statement elicited an array of reactions from across the political spectrum. His allies in the parliament and the Guardian Council, a body that vets candidates for elected office, swiftly endorsed the proposal, assuring Iranians that well-established legal mechanisms existed for such a change.

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The Latest from Iran (8 July): Admitting the "Sanctions Problem"

See also Iran Document: Tehran's Official Proposals in the Nuclear Talks in Moscow
The Latest from Iran (7 July): Warning the Green Movement

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Saturday's Expediency Council Meeting2110 GMT: Poll Watch. Days after State TV's website was embarrassed by surveys indicating most Iranians would give up enrichment of 20% uranium for sanctions relief and would not support the closure of the Strait of Hormuz --- to the point where the polls were withdrawn and the BBC was accused of hacking the site --- Khabar Online produces a result of 80% opposing the blocking of the Strait.

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The Latest from Iran (6 July): Tehran Puts Out Positive Nuclear Messages

See also The Latest from Iran (5 July): Chest-Thumping

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2030 GMT: Sanctions. Canada's TD Bank Group has begun closing the accounts of some of its customers, saying it is complying with new federal regulations for economic sanctions against Iran.

The bank has sent letters to clients telling them that, under recent changes to the Special Economic Measures (Iran) Regulation, Canadian financial institutions are forbidden from providing financial services to anyone in Iran or for the benefit of Iran. That includes any use of an account to send or receive money via wire transfer to or from friends and family in Iran.

So far, no other Canadian bank has taken similar action.

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The Latest from Iran (21 June): A Silence in Tehran

1355 GMT: Justice Watch. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, speaking to the “Human Rights and National Security” summit, has claimed that the "architect" of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists has been identified and arrested.

Moslehi said earlier this week that 20 people were arrested in connection with the cases, and the Ministry had claimed that “the key perpetrators" of the assassinations of Majid Shahriari and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan had been detained.

Moslehi also claimed that Iran had blocked the US, Israel, and the British intelligence service MI6 from carrying out a "massive cyber attack against Iran's facilities" after the Moscow nuclear talks. He added, "They still seek to carry out the plan, but we have taken necessary measures."

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Remember Iran Flashback: 20 June 2009 --- The Death of Neda...And Many Others

Protest and a gunshot victim in Tehran, 20 June 2009

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1915 GMT: A few hours ago, we posted a video of a woman "badly injured" by a gunshot in today's demonstrations. The footage is so graphic that we have moved to the "jump page" after the More... tag.

I have just read more information on The New York Times blog about the incident. The woman was a bystander watching events; according to a doctor who witnessed the event, a paramilitary Basiji deliberately fired at her chest. She died within moments of the shooting.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 19 June 2009 --- The Supreme Leader Declares "The Outcome is Final"

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2003 GMT: From former President Mohammad Khatami's Facebook page: "Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest."

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Remember Iran Flashback: 17 June 2009 --- Political Prisoners, A "Blinded" Media, and A Rally in 7 Tir Square

7 Tir Square, Tehran, 17 June 2009

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2115 GMT: We're closing off our coverage for the night with news that Mousavi has called for the release of protesters arrested in the past days' rallies. That news comes via CNN, who also have more on the Iranian football team's green wrist bands.

1700 GMT: Al Jazeera says state-run media in Iran briefly showed this afternoon's rally. SkyNews and CNN (albeit briefly) also are now showing images.

One of the banners from the Iran-South Korea World Cup football qualifier: "Go to Hell Dictator".

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