Lebanon Feature: Is Hezbollah's Syria Policy A Regional and Domestic Mistake? (Barnard)

Lebanese man with poster of Hezbollah's Sayyid Hassan Nasrullah and Syrian President Assad, 11 January 2012 (Photo: Louai Beshahra/AFP)

---

Though Hezbollah’s base in Lebanon remains strong, it runs an increasing risk of finding itself isolated, possibly caught up in a sectarian war between its patron, Iran, the region’s Shiite power, and Saudi Arabia, a protector of Sunni interests in the Middle East. Its longtime ally, Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, has distanced itself from the Assad government, moving its headquarters out of Damascus, and Sunni revolutionaries in Syria have explicitly denounced Hezbollah as an enemy. At home, its Lebanese rivals sense a rare opportunity to erode its power.

Click to read more ...

Syria 1st-Hand Video: Inside the Besieged City of Zabadani

<

---

EA sources provide English subtitles for an interview with soldiers from the Free Syrian Army stationed in the embattled city of Zabadani, 20 miles northwest of Damascus.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?

Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....

According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.

All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.

The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.

The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.

Click to read more ...

Syria 1st-Hand: Debating the Future in Homs (Shadid)

Clock Square in Homs, 15 May 2011Syria is awash in such stories of solidarity these days, bridging traditional divides that have colored the country’s politics for generations. But far from disappearing, the old divisions of geography, class and, in particular, religious sect are deepening.

Syrians offer different explanations. Protesters blame the cynical manipulation of a government bent on divide and rule, and the government points to Islamist zealots seeking to impose a tyranny of the majority.

Which prevails — new loyalties born of revolution, or old rivalries entrenched in smaller identities — may decide the fate of Syria’s four-month revolt.

Colliding along the front lines of the uprising, and especially here in Homs, these forces suggest a grim reality of the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad: the longer his government remains in power, the less chance Syria has to avoid civil strife, sectarian cleansing and the kind of communal violence that killed at least two dozen people in Homs last week. Unlike in Egypt, and despite the protesters’ hope and optimism, time is not necessarily on their side, a point that some of them admit.

Click to read more ...

US-Israel Video & Transcript: Obama Speech to American Israel Public Affairs Committee

President Obama's speech today to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee --- the statement in joined in progress, during the President's acknowledgement of guests in the audience:

PART 1

Click to read more ...

Lebanon Latest: Talks Fail as Prime Minister Hariri Remains Defiant (Shadid)

Lebanon’s worst crisis in years escalated dangerously on Thursday as a last-ditch effort to negotiate a solution ended in failure and the American-backed caretaker prime minister struck a defiant note toward Hezbollah and its allies, which brought down his 14-month-old national unity government this month.

The events cast the crisis into an unpredictable moment, as each side became ever more entrenched in positions with little common ground over indictments expected to name members of Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militant movement, in the assassination of the prime minister’s father, Rafik Hariri.

Click to read more ...

Turkey Analysis: Ankara Seizes Political Leadership over Lebanon

Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" policy continues as Hezbollah and its politcal allies walked away from the Lebanese government last week. On Friday, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was in Ankara, and the visit was followed by a call by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer cooperation. Erdogan said, "There is a need for the parties to act with full responsibility and an understanding that keeps Lebanon’s common interests above any sort of [political] consideration."

Ankara, in the role of "firefighter" on the Lebanese crisis, is pursuing its grand strategy of centring itself in regional discussions not only as a "city planner" but as a global architect.

Click to read more ...

Lebanon Special: A Beginner's Guide to the Collapse of the Government (Emserrs)

The power-sharing Government was 14 months old and had taken five months to form. It consisted of 30 ministers, with the provision that the resignation of a third would bring it to a halt. Yesterday afternoon, 10 ministers allied to Hezbollah handed in their resignation after demanding that current Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri call a Cabinet meeting to discuss the tribunal or face the consequences.  Independent Shia MP Adnan Hussein followed suit shortly afterwards, dissolving Hariri’s government at around 17.00 Beirut time.

Premier Hariri was at the time in New York meeting President Obama.  It is likely that the resignations were timed to coincide with the meeting and cause optimum embarrassment to Hariri, leaving the most powerful man in the world in a meeting with an ex-Prime Minister.

Click to read more ...

Lebanon Breaking: Government Collapses as All 10 Minister of "March 8 Movement" Resign

2125 GMT: Before he left Washington, Prime Minister Saad Hariri got his meeting with President Obama and Washington's supportive words.

Obama and Hariri urged all parties to refrain from causing further instability, and the White House said:

The efforts by the Hezbollah-led coalition to collapse the Lebanese government only demonstrate their own fear and determination to block the government's ability to conduct its business and advance the aspirations of all of the Lebanese people.

Obama also stressed the importance of the UN Special Tribunal on Lebanon "to help end the era of political assassinations with impunity" in the country.

1810 GMT: Prime Minister Hariri has cut short his trip to the US and is returning homes. There are reports that he will stop in Paris for a discussion with French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Click to read more ...

Syria Transcript: US Sends Ambassador so Damascus Can Challenge Hezbollah

On Saturday, State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley briefed the press on the appointment of Robert Ford as the ambassador to Syria. His explanation of the decision was far from consistent. If the matter  has nothing to do with "placing ambassadors in countries with which Washington has significant disagreements", why is there no ambassador to Tehran or an attempt to build official dialogue with Hamas-ruled Gaza? Why just Damascus?

The answer? Washington wants to assign "a constructive role" to Syria, such as dealing with the "Hezbollah concern" in Lebanon and in the region.

Click to read more ...