Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)

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Vice President Joe Biden, 14 June 2009: "Our interests are the same before the election as after the election"

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In contrast to the drama unfolding on the streets of Iran, the key non-event outside the country is the lack of reaction from the Obama administration. Contrary to the position taken by the Bush administration in cases from the Ukraine to Georgia and Lebanon, there will be no welcoming or encouraging of a velvet revolution in Iran. The Obama administration is, instead, preparing itself to deal with whoever emerges as president. Despite the protestations of Mir-Hossein Mousavi's supporters, this will almost certainly be the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While the United States would have strongly preferred to be dealing with a Mousavi administration, the basic strategic and political rationale for US-Iranian rapprochement remains unchanged.

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The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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Turkey Live Coverage (6 June): Erdogan Chides Israel; A Meeting on the Kurdish Issue

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Spread of the Conflict

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1900 GMT: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has landed in Istanbul. Clinton is going to be attending the Global Counter-terrorism Forum on Thursday with the attendance of other 28 foreign ministers.

1830 GMT: BDP's deputy Aysel Tugluk said:

Prime Minister should know that no solution can be developed by denying PKK and Mr. Ocalan and we will not be in such a solution. We are calling on the state to be more reasonable.

1745 GMT: The first reaction from Peace and Democracy Party comes. BDP's deputy Ahmet Tan said that they were ready to negotiate even without the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Tan also added that they received no official demand from other parties to sit on the table. 

1710 GMT: The meeting between Prime Minister Erdogan and CHP's leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu ended. Without explaining the content, CHP Deputy Chairmen Faruk Loğoğlu said the meeting was “positive” and “productive,” adding that officials from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) underlined that the contribution of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is key to moving forward with establishing a commission composed of all four parties in Parliament.

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Iran Feature: Who are the Mujahedin-e Khalq "Terrorists"/"Freedom Fighters"? (Bennett-Jones)

The Mujahedin-e Khalq reports on its Annual Congress, held in Camp Ashraf in Iraq, in September 2011

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The story of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, also known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), is all about the way image management can enable a diehard enemy to become a cherished ally. The MEK is currently campaigning to be officially delisted in the US as a terrorist organisation. Once off the list it will be free to make use of its support on Capitol Hill in order to become America’s most favoured, and no doubt best funded, Iranian opposition group.

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Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Day 2 of a Presidential Election

2045 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, 38 people have been killed so far today:

10 martyrs were reported in Idlib, 7 in Hama, 6 in Damascus Suburbs (Beit Jinn, Zabadani, Abadah and Douma), 12 in Homs (Rastan, Qosair and Deir Baalba), 1 in Daraa (Kalzour), 1 in Deir Ezzor, and 1 in Aleppo.

2025 GMT: Syria. Many suspect that the results of the parliamentary election were rigged. The process itself excluded many parties and candidates that would have been legitimate challenges to the status quo. Earlier today I wrote about the convenient symmetry of the results of the parliamentary election and today's leadership vote. Everything about the election smells fishy.

Today, parliament met for the first time and elected their leadership board. To no great surprise, a former the Baath party official won the position of speaker. The rest of the results (English) are published by Syrian state media's SANA here (Arabic).

So, the former Baath party makes up the majority of the parliament, and the leadership. If you're the Syrian opposition, this sounds rigged. But if you're the Twitter Account Hama Echo, then you KNOW it's rigged:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Pause in the Conflict?

A Saturday evening demonstration in the Khamidiya section of Homs, including the children of those who have died in the 14-month conflict

One of a series of photos of fighting in the Lebanese city of Tripoli between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime --- at least four people died (see 0905, 0955, and 1603 GMT)

See also Syria Snapshot: Assad's Supporters Clash With Kurds --- But Can the Kurds Unite?
Syria Wired: The Latest from Social Media and EA's Readers
Bahrain Live Coverage: Challenging the US Arms Sale
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Uneasy Frontline

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1733 GMT: Lebanon. A sit-in demonstration at Aleppo University today:

1603 GMT: Lebanon. Witnesses and officials say at least four people, including a Lebanese soldier, were killed and another 24 injured in the overnight fighting in the Lebanese city of Tripoli between residents for and against the Assad regime (see 0905 and 0955 GMT).

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Bahrain Live Coverage: Recognising an Independent Journalist

Flashback to Wednesday when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke of "human rights" during the visit by Crown Prince Salman --- Today, Washington followed up further meetings with Salman by renewing arms sales to the Kingdom

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Uncertainties After the Damascus Bombs
Thursday's Bahrain Live Coverage: "Almost Broken, But Not Entirely So"

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2019 GMT: Amid clashes including tear gas to disperse marchers, police approach youth in Karzakan:

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Bahrain Live Coverage: "Almost Broken, But Not Entirely So"

2145 GMT: A Bahraini defense lawyer says the court hearing of 20 medics, sentenced last year to prison terms of between five and 15 years by a military tribunal, ended in an adjournment for a month.

1955 GMT: Catching up after an academic day away....

After talks in Washington with Crown Prince Salman, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has urged Bahrain to take further steps to address human rights issues.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the pair discussed Manama's efforts to implement the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry: "Clinton noted the steps already taken to implement the recommendations, but expressed that much work remains to fully address ongoing human rights issues, including individual cases. She encouraged the Bahraini government to champion a clear process -- in both word and action -- that leads to meaningful institutional and political reforms that take into account the interests and aspirations of all Bahrainis."

Nuland added, "Clinton affirmed the long-standing commitment of the United States to a strong partnership with both the people and the government of Bahrain."

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The Latest from Iran (9 May): Propaganda and Oil

See also Iran-Afghanistan Opinion: Tehran's Mistaken Posturing Over the US-Afghan Pact
The Latest from Iran (8 May): The Political Fight Over Subsidy Cuts

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2042 GMT: Parliament v. President. After the postponement yesterday of the impeachment process against Minister of Labor Abdolreza Sheikholeslami, prominent MPs Ali Motahari and Ahmad Tavakoli have declared in a statement that they will resume the effort at the start of the new Parliament next month.

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The Latest from Iran (7 May): The Muddle of the New Parliament

See also Iran Caption Competition: The Supreme Leader Looks at a Book
The Latest from Iran (6 May): After the Election

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1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Senior reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, serving a six-year prison sentence, has responded to new Revolutionary Guards charges against him. The former Deputy Minister of Interior said, "I will not appear in court before my complaint against [Ayatollah] Jannati is accepted."

Tajazadeh has accused Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, of involvement in the manipulation of the 2009 Presidential election.

1915 GMT: The Battle Within. Only 72 hours after the conclusion of the Parliamentary elections, the Government's critics have resumed their attack. MP Ali Motahari --- his own position secured after victory in the Tehran ballot --- has said that the attempt to impeach Minister of Labor Abdolreza Sheikholeslami could resume on Tuesday.

Sheikholeslami is under fire because of his defence of controversial Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

Meanwhile, Rah-e Sabz reports that, in an effort to retain Mortazavi, the Government has paid off a 35 billion Toman (about $28.5 million) debt to the Social Security Fund.

Mortazavi, criticised for his role as Tehran Prosecutor General during the abuses and killings in the Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009, was named head of the Fund earlier this year.

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