The Latest from Iran (26 January): Tehran Issues an Oil Warning

See also Syria Video Special: Free Syrian Army Captures Iranian Soldiers
Iran Feature: How Do You Cope with Award-Winning Director Farhadi?
An EA Special: Taking Apart Talk of "War With Iran"
Wednesday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Year After the Uprising

---

2109 GMT: An EA Special --- The Syrian Front. Some context for the claimed footage, posted on EA tonight of five Iranian soldiers who were captured by the Free Syrian Army while operating inside the country.

Hours before the footage was posted, Press TV reported, "A group of armed militants have attacked an Iranian bus on the road connecting the capital, Damascus, to the northwestern city of Aleppo."

Press TV said 11 male "pilgrims" were kidnapped and taken to an unknown destination, leaving behind the women.

The website further says, "The gunmen contacted the relatives of a kidnapped passenger in Tehran, confirming the abduction of the Iranian nationals and demanding a ransom."

No direct connection has subsequently been made to the claimed video.

2105 GMT: An EA Special. EA's Josh Shahryar has provided English subtitles to a video, in Farsi, that reportedly shows Iranian soldiers inside Syria who have been captured by the Free Syrian Army. Shahryar says that he is certain, based on their accents, that these men are Iranian.

See Syria Video Special: Free Syrian Army Captures Iranian Soldiers

Click to read more ...

Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The State of the Uprising, Continued

A large anti-regime rally in Barzeh, near the Syrian capital Damascus

See also A Song of Global Hope: We Shall Overcome أغنية سوف ننتصر
Bahrain Special: Nabeel Rajab's Speech "Our Problem is with the King"
The Real Net Effect: How States Fail at the Manipulation of Social Media
Monday's Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Meaningless Amnesty, Cosmetic Speech?

---

2053 GMT: After the violence and deaths in Homs today, one of a series of demonstrations tonight in nearby areas, in this case, Deir Ba'alba:

Click to read more ...

Syria Feature: The Economic Implosion is Underway (Starr)

Stephen Starr writes for Foreign Policy magazine:

Syrian business leaders, with much to lose and deeply fearful of the regime's security apparatus, are unlikely to join the country's ongoing revolt anytime soon. Even the businessmen interviewed for this article blanched upon seeing their remarks about the dismal state of the Syrian economy in print, quickly requesting anonymity to express themselves freely. The government's rose-tinted pronouncements about the condition of Syrian finances aside, there is no doubt that the country's economy is in dire straits.

The official line is that Syria's economy is fine. In an August interview, Central Bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said that foreign reserves remain strong at about $18 billion -- the same figure he was quoting earlier in the summer. President Bashar al-Assad has been somewhat more honest, arguing in June that "the most dangerous thing we face in the next stage is the weakness or collapse of the Syrian economy".

But the facts on the ground are irrefutable. The International Monetary Fund projected in September that Syria's economy will shrink by about 2% this year. Tourism, worth about 12% of GDP, has ceased completely. Employees in the huge and overburdened state sector have been asked by the authorities to "donate" 500 Syrian pounds (about $10) from their monthly salaries to help boost state funds. Deposits in Syria's private banks declined as much as 18% in third quarter of this year, according to figures released by the Damascus Securities Exchange, despite high interest rates meant to shore up bank coffers.

Read full article....

The Latest from Iran (29 October): The Economy, Propaganda, and the IMF

See also The Latest from Iran (28 October): "Our Prisons Are Full"

---

1720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalists Ali Akrami, Mehdi Afsharnik, Mohammad Heydari, and Mohsen Hakimi have been released on bail.

The reporters were detained during a regime crackdown last month on the Freedom Movement of Iran.

1715 GMT: Parliament v. President. The New York Times has now joined the flutter, started by a speech of the Supreme Leader last week, that Iran might replace an elected President with a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament.

Meanwhile, Aty News --- close to Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf --- quotes MP Mohammad Dehghan that there will be no more Presidential elections.

On another front, Khabar Online, linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, suggested that there may be a move this week towards interrogation of the President, as the number of MPs demanding the session is on the rise.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (21 August): Punishing the US Hikers

Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal (see 0650 and 0910 GMT)1910 GMT: Energy Watch. Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo is not a happy man: he says the Government owes $8 billion to banks and companies, and the power producers' union fears bankruptcy. Namjoo says he asked the Supreme Leader for help, but experts do not expect any government payments to the banking system and power plants in the near future.

1525 GMT: Justice Watch. A couple more snippets from the press conference of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi (see 1400 GMT)....

Doulatabadi said the file of 15 "spies" for Israel would go to court within 10 days. Even more interesting, however, was his claim that four members of the "deviant current" --- often used as a label for the advisors around President Ahmadinejad --- would be tried soon.

Click to read more ...

Iran Document and Analysis: A "Shockingly Bad" IMF Report --- "Subsidy Cuts Are A Unique Opportunity for Iran"

Last month we reported that a team from the International Monetary Fund had visited Iran and issued a statement declaring the "success" of Iran's economy, specifically praising the Government's subsidy cuts programme.

We noted doubts about the statement with the simple observation of a "sharp contrast to much of the economic news we have posted on the Iran LiveBlog", but left it at that. After all, this was only a statement and not a full report.

Well, an IMF "working paper" has emerged, albeit with little fanfare. In the expectation, however, that Iranian officials will be hoping that it gets headline attention, we will be blunt....

This supposed analysis is shockingly bad.

Click to read more ...

Iran Snapshot: "Playing With Numbers" --- Claims and Realities on the Economy (Tehran Correspondent)

Last month, as a flood of exuberant economic forecasts poured on Iran on the back of an unusually positive International Monetary Fund press release, one on-the-ground observer morosely invoked an old Iranian proverb: "My cheeks look rosy because I slap them" (Bah seeli sourat ra sorkh negah dashtan). To the members of Tehran's business and financial community, it appears the Iranian government has adhered to this saying, perking up its numbers to present the world with a peachy picture of its less-than-stellar economic performance.

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: Could the Economy Bring Down Ahmadinejad...and the Regime? (Setrakian)

Sanctions are biting harder than ever, but business still gets done through the leaks and loopholes. So it’s not changing the regime’s behavior where it counts: on its nuclear policy, specifically, its accelerating enrichment of uranium. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s policies have been largely bad for business and made life harder for most Iranians. Together, that could get Ahmadinejad booted from office, but it probably won’t topple the regime. Iran is rolling in oil money – a salve for all its economic wounds. But Iran can’t effectively tap the wealth underground, given the bans on foreign investment in the energy sector. That, combined with overall mismanagement, makes Iran’s economy is “fundamentally unsustainable,” in the words of one analyst – a “patient with many viruses.”

Click to read more ...

EA Cyber-Special: What is LulzSec? And Is It More than a Bit of LOL and Mischief? (Dunne)

LulzSec's "Pierre DuBois"LulzSec --- the mischievous internet group responsible for infiltrating servers at Sony, Sega and the International Monetary, as well as disabling Government websites on both sides of the Atlantic --- has expanded its operation, codenamed AntiSec, to South America. Early on Wednesday, the group claimed to have disabled two websites of the Brazilian Government, Portal Brazil and the site of President Dilma Vana Rousseff.

The group maintains it is acting simply "for the Lulz", a play on "LOL", getting amusement from random digital anarchy. Fridays become "FF", the designated day of the week for dissemination of stolen material.

But is there a significance beyond mischief and laughs?

Click to read more ...

Iran Document: IMF Declares "Success" of Tehran's Economy

The mission commended the authorities for the early success in the implementation of their ambitious subsidy reform program. The increases in prices of energy products, public transport, wheat, and bread adopted on December 19, 2010, are estimated to have removed close to US$60 billion (about 15 percent of GDP) in annual implicit subsidies to products. At the same time, the redistribution of the revenues arising from the price increases to households as cash transfers has been effective in reducing inequalities, improving living standards, and supporting domestic demand in the economy. The energy price increases are already leading to a decline in excessive domestic energy consumption and related energy waste. While the subsidy reform is expected to result in a transitory slowdown in economic growth and temporary increase in the inflation rate, it should considerably improve Iran’s medium term outlook by rationalizing domestic energy use, increasing export revenues, strengthening overall competitiveness, and bringing economic activity in Iran closer to its full potential.

Click to read more ...