Wikileaks and Iran: Did Mojtaba Khamenei Rig the 2009 Election? (And Where Did the Cable Go?)

A curious story unfolding today: did the son of the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, worked with the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Abbas Ali Jafari, to manipulate the ballot?

That appears to be the claim, in at least one document released by WikiLeaks and obtained by the Daily Telegraph of London, by at least one Iranian source to US diplomats within days of the vote. But then another mystery starts....

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The Latest from Iran (3 February): Glancing at Cairo

2120 GMT: The "Right" Egyptian Revolution. How much is Tehran playing up Egypt? To the point where almost all the story on Press TV's "Iran" section after actually about Cairo....

The military advisor to the Supreme Leader, Brigadier General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, suggests that some of the opposition figures are not "right" for Iran: “By introducing several people as [protest] leaders, the US is seeking to pave the way for creating rifts amidst the Egyptian nation and to use the outcome to its own advantage.”

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nouri-Hamedani is also setting out Good and Bad for the demonstrators, warning anti-regime protesters in Egypt over the dangers of a “secular revolution".

So what is the right path? MP Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam helps out, “Thanks to the Islamic Revolution, Islam and Shiism is cultivating in the world and this revolutionary culture is Islamic.”

The Foreign Ministry says it is monitoring the "wave of Islamic awakening".

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Iran and the Real Net Effect: A First-Hand Response to the Pessimists (Siavashi)

While Evgeny Morozov uses the medium of Twitter to get out his essential  information --- "During our interview today David Frost discovered that in Russian 'Morozov' means 'son of frost'. He denies the rumor!" --- others are using the technology from different motives.

They are doing so, often in defiance of the control and repression that occupies Morozov, to change the world.

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Iran Analysis: Former President Khatami's Manoeuvre on Elections (Sahimi)

"Our demands in the past as well as the present are clear, and have been emphasized even in the aftermath of the recent [2009 presidential] election. [Favourable] conditions for broad participation of people [in the elections] and guaranteeing their rights must be provided. In addition, the elections must be held in such a way that there will be minimum hindrance of free voting by the people and maximum conditions for materializing their demands and ideals.

"The minimum conditions for the Reformists' participation in the elections are the release of all the political prisoners, freedom for all political parties and groups and removal of all limitations [on their activity], commitment of all, particularly the officials, to the Constitution and the execution of all of its articles, especially its true spirit and holding free and fair elections."

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The Latest from Iran (10 January): Don't Mention the Election

1935 GMT: The "Subversive" Writers. More on the authors targeted in a new Government campaign against dangerous writers (see 1520 GMT)....

The international media have picked up on the specific case of Nobel Prize winner Paolo Coelho, who has appealed to the Brazilian Government after learning from his publisher of a ban on his books.

It is unclear whether the ban is linked to Coelho's editor, translator, and friend, Dr Arash Hejazi. The doctor attracted the ire of the Iranian Government as a supposed foreign agent after he tried to save the life of Neda Agha Soltan, killed by a gunshot during demonstrations on 20 June 2009.

Indeed, there is a Who's Who of Iranian authors whose place on the blacklist has not attracted notice outside Iran. They include Simin Behbahani, Mahmoud Doulatabadi, Ali Ashraf Darvishian, Sepanlou, Javad Mojabi, Bahman Farzaneh, Abbas Milani, Mashallah Ajudani, Bahram Beyzaie, Ebrahim Golestan, and Reza Ghassemi.

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Iran Video and Transcript: Revisiting The Opposition Case for an Illegitimate Election (21 June 2009)

During the Presidential campaign and election of 12 June 2009, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour was the head of the Committee to Protect the Vote. On 21 June, two days after the Supreme Leader had reaffirmed at Friday Prayers that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election, Mohtashamipour made a lengthy public statement in which he set out the case for a flawed ballot and set the conditions for a proper review.

Mohtashamipour's basic demand --- for an independent committee to enquire into the vote, as the Guardian Council, the Islamic Republic's body overseeing political matters, had been compromised by support of its members for President Ahmadinejad --- was quickly rejected. The Council conducted a limited recount of ballots and issued a report in July declaring that there was no irregularities in the election.

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Iran Feature: Renewed Claims That Presidential Election Was Manipulated

*From Thursday, 11 June, the Ministry of Communications cut off all links between cell phones of the polling station monitors for Mousavi and another candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, and of the headquarters of the Committee for Protecting People's Votes.

*At 4 p.m. on 12 June, five hours before voting ended, Raja News, linked to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, announced that Ahmadinejad had been reelected with 63% of the vote, the same percentage that the Ministry of Interior and the Guardian Council late on the night of 12 June and over following days.

*Mousavi's and Karroubi's monitors were barred for many hours from the Ministry of Interior building during the evening of 12 June as the counting of votes took place. By the time they were allowed to enter, state television was broadcasting "results", even though the locations where votes were supposedly cast were not showing any numbers.

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WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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