The Latest from Iran (6 March): Is Ahmadinejad in Trouble?

See also Iran Opinion: The Hunger Strike of Mehdi Khazali
Israel Video, Transcript, & Snap Analysis: Netanyahu's Speech to AIPAC
Iran-Israel-US Video Special: "It's War!"
The Latest from Iran (5 March): The Election? So Far, It's a Muddle

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1805 GMT: Drumbeats of War Watch. Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now picks up a crucial alteration in a report by CNN's Jessica Yellin about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit on Monday to the White House. First, Yellin's report:

"Three Republican presidential candidates will be addressing the AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] conference on Tuesday. All three have accused President Obama of appeasing Iran. The president has said that that kind of language and other quote 'loose talk of war' only helps Iran by driving up oil prices which Iran relies on to fund its nuclear weapons program".

Now, Obama's actual quote:

Already there is too much loose talk of war. For the last few weeks such talk has only benefited the Iranian government by driving up the price of oil, which they depend on to fund their nuclear program.

Siavashi comments:

The President said nuclear program.

Not nuclear weapons program.

Now, some people may be inclined to ask, "what's the big deal?"

It's a big deal.

It has not been proven that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. But it is virtually being touted as absolute fact by these mainstream outlets that Iran's nuclear program --- one that the Iranian government claims is for civilian purposes only, and that has been under the protocols and monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency for years --- is a nuclear weapons program.

Whether one believes what the Iranian government says is not the issue at hand though. It is irrelevant to the point I'm making. It is also irrelevant whether Jessica Yellin was even aware of the fact that she so badly misquoted President Obama.

What's relevant is that she said it without the slightest hesitation, as if intrinsically, she.just knows that it is a nuclear weapons program. It was as if she felt she needed to fill in an assumed blank between the words "nuclear" and "program" when the President uttered them. Like she was doing him a favor.

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The Latest from Iran (4 March): The Play-Acting of the Election

A spoiled ballot in Friday's Parliamentary election, "Death to this rotten regime that forces me to vote for a stamp in my ID card!"

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?
Iran Elections Snapshot: The #1 Subversive Moment "They're All the Same"
Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election
Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (3 March): After the Vote

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2005 GMT: Trouble-Making Watch. It has not taken maverick MP Ali Motahari long to stir feathers after the election. Motahari, who headed a breakaway faction called Voice of the Nation, has claimed that former Speaker of Parliament Gholam Ali Haddad Adel prevented his inclusion on the Unity Front list for Tehran.

The challenge is significant because Haddad Adel is a likely candidate for the next Speaker of Parliament.

1945 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. An EA correspondent adds context for our entries today considering whether Parliament, after this week's vote, will interrogate the President (see 0740 and 1340 GMT): "Ahmadinejad could be questioned by the outgoing Parliament, which still be operation for a month or two after the elections."

And will that happen? The correspondent replies, "It's really tough to say."

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Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?

A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.

And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.

The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.

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Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election

To modify Voltaire's famous statement about God, "if the 60% turnout did not exist, it would have to be invented".  Beyond the battles within the establishment that will soon re-emerge --- reduced to "Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad", but going far beyond this amongst the conservative and principlist factions and politicians --- the immediate demand on the regime was to establish its legitimacy.

The truth is that we will never know exactly how many Iranians --- amidst economic problems, worries over corruption and mismanagement, political in-fighting, restrictions on dissent and communications, imprisonments and harassments --- decided that voting might make a difference. 

What we do know is that Iranian authorities went to great lengths to set up and control the show.

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The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections

Maya Neyestani on today's "historic" election

See also Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (1 March): The Issue Is Legitimacy

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2055 GMT: ANd now a good-news story from the elections....

The 100-year-old man in Hamedan voted and died (see 1215 GMT), and the 95-year-old man in Damavand said, ""God, please accept this vote from me" and passed away (see 1645), but the 117-year-old man in Gonbad-e Qabus cast his ballot and lived.

2030 GMT: Well, I now have first-hand experience of how Iranian media handle news and analysis about this election.

Fars has not only noted my interview with BBC Persian; they are presenting it as if I had spoken to them. The headline is a selective extract, reflecting Fars' emphasis, of my comments, "The Western Leaders Don't Have a Clear Understanding of the Iranian Elections".

To be fair, Fars does fairly repeat some of my remarks, such as this election is too complex to be "Conservatives v. Clergy" and "The election is less about foreign policy than it is about Iran's internal affairs, economics, political accountability, and even topics such as judicial and legal rights."

What is interesting is what is left out or abbreviated. Fars' "interview" forgets to include my remarks that this election --- crucially --- is about the legitimacy of not only the Government but also the regime. And while the site does accurately mention my comment, "Reformists had no chance in this election of achieving some kind of political power", it indicates this was the main reason for their boycott of the vote --- conveniently omitting the rest of my analysis that the strategy was to raise question marks about the regime: "The message, following the 2009 Presidential election protests ie not just "Where is my vote?" but "Where is my government's responsibility?"

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Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections

The regime's Get Out the Vote video, calling for a high turnout as a "hard slap" to Iran's enemies

See also The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

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THE VOTE

There are 290 seats in the Iranian Majlis, with members serving four-year terms. The chamber is officially led by a speaker. 

There are no political parties as such; instead, blocs or factions can emerge. The Parliament is dominated by "conservatives" and "principlists", a term usually applied to the political wave since the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005.

"Reformists", who were prominent in the legislature during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), have been squeezed into a weak minority group of about 50-60 representatives. That number is likely to fall sharply in the next Majlis.

THE PROCESS

In today's first round, voters will choose names from dozens of lists of candidates. Allocated seats range from 30 for Tehran to one for Iran's smallest towns and villages, so a voter in the capital can write up to 30 names whereas the process elsewhere is far simpler.

Any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote in his/her district is elected. Those who receive less than 50% but above a minimum standard will be on the ballot for a second round of voting in about two weeks.

THE MAJOR LISTS

This should be prefaced with the note that the lists are not as important today as the individuals who may or may not emerge from them.

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Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?

We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.

In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.

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Iran Snapshot: When Protester Mina Met Basij Mohammad (Hafezi/Hosseinian)

Iranian Protesters Raise Flowers, 30 July 2009Mina and Mohammad stood on opposite sides of the political barricades when protests against Iran's rulers erupted into mass street violence; she, a student demanding democratic reform, he a member of the hard-line Basij militia that helped crush the greatest challenge ever to the Islamic Republic.

Now the two, both 27, are brought together for the first time in a small sitting room in central Tehran. Two years have passed. Iran faces painful trade sanctions over its nuclear program, prices soar, the opposition is silenced and parliamentary polls loom for Mina as an empty promise of democracy.

They greet each other warily, these representatives of two estranged sides of Iran, the victor, perhaps, and the vanquished. Both smile courteously, refusing offers of tea to ease the awkwardness.

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The Latest from Iran (27 February): Has Khamenei Met Mousavi?

Director Ashgar Farhadi holds the Oscar for his "A Separation", winner of Best Foreign-Language Film

See also Iran Video and Pictures: "A Separation" Wins Oscar for Best Foreign-Language Film
The Latest from Iran (26 February): Bashing the BBC, Jailing the Journalists

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1737 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Marzieh Rasouli has been released from prison on bail.

The release of Rasouli, a cultural reporter for several reformist publications, comes days after she was named as an "agent" of BBC Persian swept up in mid-January in the "Eye of the Fox" operation of the Revolutionary Guards. Blogger/journalist Parastou Doroukhaki, also named over the operation, was freed on Sunday.

Blogger Nama Jafari, detained on 14 February, has been freed on a bail on 80 million toman (about $42,000). The editor of the 35anj website, Jafari had compiled a series of protest poems and other writings about the post-election protests of 2009 under the title "Gathering at the Solitary Cell".

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The Latest from Iran (26 February): Bashing the BBC, Jailing the Journalists

See also Iran Opinion: Myth and Reality About Nuclear Ambitions
Iran Snapshot: When the Revolutionary Guards Confuse Computer Viruses with Condoms
Iran Snapshot: Kentucky Fried Chicken or No Kentucky Fried Chicken? That is the Question
The Latest from Iran (25 February): A Far-from-Simple Election

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Journalist Marzieh Rassouli (see 0550 GMT)2028 GMT: CyberWatch. The "Hezbollah Cyber Army" hacked the website of the reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics today to post the message: "I participate in elections. With God's wisdom, the great Iran nation will put supporters of the US line of an election boycott in their place."

The Assembly has already replaced the text with a quote from former President Mohammad Khatami, "Nothing will appease people but ruling their fate themselves."

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