Today’s protest showed both the limited capacity of the Greens to muster huge number of protesters because of Government repression, but at the same time it demonstrated how weak the government has become in dealing with its foes.
With options running out on both sides, the real question is: who is going to give in first and cross the point of no return on its nuclear option?
2115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Masoud Lavasani has been summoned to Evin Prison to serve his 4 1/2-year prison sentence.
Lavasani was arrested on 26 July 2009 at his home.Ahmad Reza Khadem of the National Front has been sentenced to 40 months in prison.
Muhammad Nawaz, a follower of the detained Ayatollah Boroujerdi, has been detained.
2043 GMT: Parliament v. President. I know 16 Azar has been dramatic, but don't forget the ongoing story of the challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
MP Darioush Ghanbari says that several reformists have signed the letter, organised by principlists opposing the President, to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis for questioning.
1900 GMT: BBC Notes Sedition. The BBC has picked up on comments by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, that opposition to the system of velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy) is a denial of God.
Jannati made the remark in a speech on Sunday in Shiraz: "Denying the guardianship of the Uupreme Leader [is the same as denying God."
The comment effectively equates dissent with mohareb (war against God), a crime which can carry the death penalty.
1740 GMT: 16 Azar. Kalemeh posts an article on today's protest at Tehran University. We have posted six clips of the demonstration in a separate entry.
2105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Isa Saharkhiz has reportedly undergone an operation for international bleeding in Rajai Shahr Prison's infirmary.
Leyla Tavassoli has been transferred to Evin Prison to begin a two-year prison sentence.
Tavassoli is the daughter of Mohammad Tavassoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran.
2058 GMT: Labour Front. Workers of Kashan spinning factory have gathered in front of the governor's office to protest over being paid half-wages for 27 months.
2055 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. The Deputy Minister of Trade has said that bread prices will rise "a bit" after subsidy cuts but added that quality will rise as well.
2050 GMT: Signs for a Deal? Signals from both Iran and the US that talks in next Monday and Tuesday on Tehran's nuclear programme can move toward a resolution.
The US media are picking up on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's implicit acknowledgement on Friday that Iran has a right to enrich uranium:
The position of the international community is clear. You have the right to a peaceful nuclear program, but with that right comes a reasonable responsibility, that you follow the treaty you signed and fully address the international community’s concerns about your nuclear activity. We urge you to make that choice … we urge you to restore the confidence of the international community and live up to your international obligations.
(And Iranian media and officials, despite the apparent snub to Clinton by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki only a few seats away, have also taken note. Mottaki said today, “This is a step forward that even the United States [officials] admit to Iran's right to acquire nuclear technology and fuel cycle in their every speech.")
Equally notable, however, is the statement of President Ahmadinejad today. After a week filled with denunciations of the "West", the US, and the UN, Ahmadinejad said:
We are ready to cooperate on a wide range of issues including economic, nuclear, international security and international political issues and the resolution of global problems. This is a unique opportunity...that we hope Western leaders will not waste.
"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."
1930 GMT: Close to Impeachment? Really? This morning (see 0609 GMT) we noted a Wall Street Journal story about the growing dispute between Parliament and President, commending it for noting the conflict but calling it "exaggerated". Here are the dramatic paragraphs:
Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exposing a deepening division within the regime....
Conservative newspapers reported on Monday that lawmakers have started a motion to collect the 74 signatures needed to openly debate impeachment. Mousa Reza Servati, the head of the parliament's budgetary committee, was quoted as saying 40 lawmakers, including Mr. Servati, have signed the motion.
The move to remove the president from office marks the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that parliament has discussed impeachment of a president. Though the legislature is backed by the Iranian constitution, lawmakers can't drive Mr. Ahmadinejad from office without the supreme leader's agreement.
Here is how EA reported the story on Monday: "About 40 lawmakers have signed a petition, sponsored by Ali Motahari, Alireza Zakani, Tavakoli, and Elyas Naderan to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis. At least 74 signatures are necessary for the President to be commanded to appear."
Note the important difference in emphasis. Summoning the President to answer questions in Parliament is not debate of impeachment. Instead, if Ahmadinejad's answers are not satisfactory, then the Parliament can take further action, asking him for better responses. If those are still not suitable, then impeachment may be an option.
That is a long way from the showdown portrayed in the Wall Street Journal. And it certainly does not mean that the Supreme Leader has intervened to block the President's removal.
We are now checking our interpretation, as the Journal story is being repeated as gospel truth by sources such as the BBC and Joe Klein of Time magazine.
Mr Jannati! You accuse these people (the political prisoners) of sedition. They call you seditious because of what you say and the sedition that you are creating. You should be responsive for your actions. If there was a just system in the country with a jury, then we would show you what you did during the past 21 years and how much you violated the rights of people. You sit down with armed and security forces and review and approve or disapprove [from being eligible for election] whomever you like....You are responsible for things that have happened....
At the end I urge all Grand Ayatollahs and senior religious figures to act in order to preserve the dignity of Islam and clergy and also to prevent the violation of rights of prisoners so that...in the future we would not witness actions for which we cannot compensate.
2045 GMT: Dropping the Sword. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi publicly confirmed the regime's handling of post-election detainees who are allowed out of jail: "If political prisoners hold meetings, issue statements and pursue activities within their political parties, their right to temporary leave of absence from prison will be removed."
2025 GMT: Execution Watch (Prime-Time TV Edition). Looks like the Iranian regime is feeling a bit of pressure on the "human rights" front.....
How else to explain yet another "confession" on national television by Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery and complicity in her husband's murder.
The blurred face of a woman, claimed to be Ashtiani, said, "I am a sinner". (The "confession" was voiced over, as Ashtiani speaks only Azeri.)
The report also contained purported statements by Ashtiani's son, Sajad Ghaderzadeh, and her lawyer, Houtan Kian, both of whom were arrested last month, and of the two German journalists who were trying to interview them.
2120 GMT: CyberWatch. The website of the Feminist School has been filtered for the 19th time by Iranian authorities.
2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Commander Moghaddam, head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Isargaran Committee, has been arrested after he and other veterans had a meeting with Mousavi this week.
2055 GMT: Economy Watch. While Iran waits for the implementation of subsidy cuts, Rah-e-Sabz reports that prices for 29 essential foods have risen weekly, with the highest increases for fresh vegetables (10.3%) and legumes (5.6%).
2045 GMT: Free Thinking, Khatami Style. Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting former academics, has said that criticism of the regime is "due to sympathy". Speaking directly about the suspension of "Western-style" humanities instruction in universities, Khatami declared, "You cannot change the world or humanities with official orders".
The former President added, "If politics is based on free elections, many problems will be solved."
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 at 20:50