The Latest from Iran (1 October): Problems with Banks and Oil

See also The Latest from Iran (30 September): Where's the President's Right-Hand Man?

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1845 GMT: Cyber-Question of Day. So who is behind the fake BBC Persian website, with the lead story that its editor raped a female employee, but she returned to work?

1835 GMT: Do You Think the Supreme Leader Knows? Hours after Ayatollah Khamenei opened Tehran's International Conference on the Palestinian Intifada by denouncing the Palestinian Authority's leadership, including Mahmoud Abbas, and its approach to the UN for recognition of Palestinian leadership, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal sang a different tune, even in the cautious wording of the Tehran Times....

The article frames Meshaal's position as "the plan presented by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is worth mulling over", but in expressing his criticism that "the United States and the Zionists exposed their true face as they have started efforts to stymie the plan", the site portrays support for his Palestinian rival:

Meshaal said Abbas is resisting pressure exerted by the U.S. and Israel. “In this moment of history that the true face of the Zionists has been revealed, Mahmoud Abbas and our brothers in the Fatah movement as well as other independent figures should make efforts to achieve unity,” the Hamas political leader stated.

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Iran Feature: Has the Regime Decapitated the Green Movement? (Hafezi)

Attempts to revive street protests have fizzled. The opposition, which says its fight for a freer Iran will continue, is following the Arab uprisings with a mixture of envy and regret for its own failure, analysts and moderate former officials say.

"The opposition is leaderless and lacks any strategy. The opposition leaders are under house arrest. Dozens of prominent reformists are jailed. Their supporters have no choice but to wait and see," said a close ally of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who asked not to be named.

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Iran Letter: Fatemeh Karroubi Writes Head of Judiciary from Her House Arrest ---- "We Have Been Denied Basic Rights"

Mehdi and Fatemeh KarroubiDo you truly believe that you will find one rational human being on this planet who will confirm that [my husband Mehdi] Karroubi is at home rather than under imposed house arrest?  Will the silence by the judiciary not lead to a new trend in which security institutions will impose the costs associated with such house arrests on the shoulders of the families of those arrested? Is this type of behaviour worthy of the Islamic Republic? Although you are fully aware that this newly devised and ridiculous tactic will be recorded in history as such,  the family has nevertheless chosen to comply with your demands in order to protect the physical well-being of Mr. Karroubi.

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WikiLeaks & Iran Special (June 2009): The Election Was "A Power Grab by Mojtaba Khamenei"

Ali and Mojtaba KhameneiLast week we featured a cable, released by WikiLeaks, in which Ayatollah Syed Salman Safavi --- four days after the disputed 2009 Presidential election --- told Western diplomats in London that a person "very close to the Supreme Leader...working in the Supreme Leader's office" had orchestrated the victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Safavi's implication was that the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, even if he did not direct the manipulation, was fully supportive of it and that the operation was backed by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari. Safavi further claimed that the IRGC had been split by the decision to rig the election in favour of Ahmadinejad, whom he said had the backing of only one senior cleric, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

And now, in another cable from WikiLeaks, the other half of this intriguing tale....

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Iran Feature: So What Would You Ask Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? (Sadjadpour and Milani)

There is evidence that your chief adviser, [Esfandiar] Rahim Mashai, helped secure loans for the leading suspect in a $2.6 billion bank fraud case, the largest embezzlement scandal in Iranian history. You came to office vowing to “cut off the hands” of the corrupt; how will you deal with Mashai?

Your opponents in 2009, Mir Hossein Mousavi, 69, and Mehdi Karroubi, 73, have been held incommunicado for nearly a year. On what basis are they confined? If they have no influence, as you have said, why are they under house arrest?

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The Latest from Iran (17 September): Re-Visiting the 2009 Election

See also Iran Feature: Is Civil Disobedience Taking Off?
WikiLeaks & Iran Special (June 2009): Brother of Supreme Leader's Military Advisor "The Election Was a Political Coup"

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2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian authorities have freed Vahik Abramian, a Dutch-Iranian national detained for a year for "spreading the Christian faith". He is now back in the Netherlands.

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish student activists Mehdi Dohago, Milad Karimi and Soran Daneshvar --- have been arrested in Sanandaj in northwestern Iran.

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WikiLeaks & Iran Special (June 2009): Brother of Supreme Leader's Military Advisor "The Election Was a Political Coup"

Released in this month's mass "drop" of US documents by WikiLeaks, this may be the most explosive document I have seen about the disputed 2009 Iranian Presidential Election. That is not just because of the content --- a graphic description of an election stolen under the direction of a member of the Supreme Leader's office (his son, Mojtaba Khamenei?) amidst a divided establishment, with the Revolutionary Guards split over support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- but because of the support.

The claims are not made by a foreign agency or by the Iranian opposition. For the first time, they come from a source close to the highest levels of the regime. It is the brother of the military advisor to the Supreme Leader who outlines:

1. The election was a "political coup", with disruption of Mir Hossein Mousavi's organisation and communications, an exaggerated vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and a very quick announcement of the supposed results. The fraud was orchestrated by someone "very close to the [Supreme] Leader" and involved the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

2. The decision to manipulate the election was prompted by the perceived surge of support for Mir Hossein Mousavi, especially after his performance in a 1-on-1 debate with Ahmadinejad.

3. The Revolutionary Guards split over the manipulation, with a majority opposed Jafari and the Basij militia's command.

4. The political establishment were also divided. Only a minority of conservatives supported Ahmadinejad before the vote, and he was only backed by one senior cleric, Mesbah Yazdi.

5. To bolster the opposition, which had turned out in the hundreds of thousands (millions?) the previous day in Tehran, the US should promote a message of human rights and should not recognise Ahmadinejad.

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THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENT

¶1. (S) Summary: Syed Salman Safavi, brother of ex-IRGC commander and the Supreme Leader's military advisor Rehman Safavi, on June 16 told London Iran Watcher (Poloff) and a small group of diplomats that "a majority" of leaders within the government of Iran and the IRGC want the United States, while continuing to avoid interference in Iran, to continue and even strengthen its public messages on human rights, so as to support popular protests in Iran and prevent any consolidation of Ahmedinejad's electoral win. Safavi said "a majority" of the IRGC have split from the Basij and from IRGC commander Jafari over the manipulation and aftermath of the June 12 elections. He added that a person he "cannot name, very close to the Supreme Leader," and "working in the Leader's office," conceived and ordered engineering of the election and of attempted suppression which has followed. Safavi claimed no senior clergy other than Mousavi in fact support Ahmedinejad. Safavi offered no compromise solution among contending parties in Iran, and indicated throughout that either Moussavi or Ahmedinejad would be politically vanquished. He explicitly played down the prospect of a "civil war" raised by a European interlocutor. End summary.

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Iran Snapshot: The Flogging of Somayeh Tohidlou

On Wednesday, Somayeh Tohidlou, a Ph.D. student in sociology at Tehran University, was given 50 lashes for "insulting the President".

The sentence has been hanging over Tohidlou, a supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi, since the days after the disputed June 2009 Presidential election, when she was arrested for participating in protests. She was lashed in Evin Prison, her hands and feet reportedly chained.

On Thursday, groups inside and Iran condemned the flogging. The Social Science Faculty of Tehran University issued a statement that authorities "were intent on playing the scourge of humanity and humiliating their opponents", lashing "the voice of innocence".

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The Latest from Iran (12 September): The Nuclear Front

2105 GMT: The Battle Within. Yasaman Baji offers an overview of the political tensions as conservative and principlist factions vie for position:

Intense competition among different wings of forces claiming absolute loyalty to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, has created a muddled political environment, making it difficult to speculate about the direction of the country after the term of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expires in 2013.

The March elections to the Majlis could be a bellwether. In the past, parliamentary elections held right before the president's second term is over have been significant in hinting the future direction the country under the next president.

Today, increasingly acrimonious competition among devoted supporters of the Islamic Republic, known as Principlists, has the country wondering about whether there are plans to continue the country's hard-line direction without Ahmadinejad or whether instead the more- moderate conservative elements within the Principlist camp will take the reins and steer the country in a more centrist direction.

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Latest from Iran (10 September): A New Protest in Tabriz?

Claimed footage of a demonstration in Tabriz in northwest Iran last night

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See also Latest from Iran (9 September): Ignoring Ahmadinejad on Syria

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2015 GMT: Health Watch. Monavar Khalaj reports for the Financial Times, "Healthcare Costs Move Beyond Most Iranians":

Unofficial figures say healthcare costs [in Iran] have increased between 20 to 40 per cent in recent months.

Masoud Javanbakht, a member of Iran’s Medical Council, a body that represents doctors, warned last month that only 25 per cent of Iran’s 75m population can afford hospital care. Mr Javanbakht told the semi-official Fars news agency that 30 per cent of households stood to lose not only their incomes but also all their savings if a household member were hospitalised. In theory, more than 32m Iranians are covered by the state’s social security fund, which runs some hospitals directly. A parallel organisation, the medical service insurance organisation, covers a further 23m people living mainly in more rural areas. In addition, state employees, such as members of the armed forces and teachers, have their own dedicated health insurance funds. But state-run hospitals are often of poor quality, and staff are badly paid and under-motivated. Waiting lists for operations run up to six months. As a result, 70 per cent of outpatient services are supplied by the private sector.

Masoud Pezeshkian, a former health minister and now a member of the parliament’s health committee, says an operation involving a stay at an intensive care unit can cost more than IR60m ($5,600). “This fee is very high for those who have [low] salaries or are jobless because their assets are not so much to be able to make up for the fees,” Mr Pezeshkian says.

Anoushiravan Mohseni-Bandepay, deputy head of the parliament’s health committee, says what the patient must pay can account for about 60 per cent of treatment while the share covered by public insurance is only about 40 per cent. When it comes to outpatient services, such as pathological and radiological tests, Mr Mohseni-Bandepay says families have to pay on average 65 per cent of expenses.

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