Iran Feature: The Political Struggle Moves to the Cinemas (Erdbrink)

Nader and SiminIn Iran, newspapers stay away from politically sensitive topics, more and more Web sites are being blocked and anti-government demonstrations have been declared illegal.

But the popular cinema is going strong, and in recent weeks, the screenings of two locally made films at theaters across the capital have become a popularity contest of sorts between supporters of the government and the grass-roots opposition movement.

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Iran Opinion: "We Should Side with the Clergy" in Tehran Showdown (Nasr)

Ahmadinejad is a threat to clerical supremacy, but without him, Khomeinism is even more vulnerable to reformist challengers. The alternative would be a right-wing ideological state -- nationalist, fundamentalist, populist, and ruled by militarism, something akin to the Japan of the 1930s. And that cannot last. In this contest between Iran's elite factions, the world should be rooting for the clergy -- their victory will bring about the quickest end to the Islamic Republic.

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Iran Document: Opposition Advisor Arjomand "The Goals, Networks, and Methods of the Green Movement"

No regime is sustainable without the support of a significant portion of the population. We must create awareness amongst a large segment of our society. We must establish social networks designed to foster the exchange of ideas and open discussions. This phenomenon has occurred in many other countries as well. Firstly, we must mobilize public opinion. Secondly, we must specify the people's demands and lastly force the opposing group [ruling government] to suffer setbacks.

Our strategy should be to weaken their position and reduce their resources particularly their armed forces. We are witnessing the delegitimization of this government. We must look into new methods of resistance such as sit-ins and strikes. The inefficiencies of the ruling government are gradually emerging and today we are witnessing the confessions by some within the government regarding these inefficiencies.

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Iran Document: Regime's Broadcaster Blames Itself for Post-Election Protest (ICHRI)

The report says that the “premature announcement of election results, prior to preparing public opinion, was a mistake in the national media’s news coverage...considering voting hours ended at 22:00 on the night of 12 June, and the initial results (announcing [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad’s victory) were reported (after counting 61% of the votes) at 2:47 a.m. the next day .”

The report finds that “announcing election results with such speed was almost unprecedented". The report implicitly blames the IRIB’s performance during the vote count, as one of the factors contributing to widespread street protest.

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The Latest from Iran (17 June): Sometimes Numbers Speak Better than Words

1740 GMT: Oil Watch. Emad Hosseini, the spokesman of Parliament's Oil Committee, has said that Iran's oil industry is "ten years behind our partners, meaning Qatar". He continued, "Contrary to promises made, producing natural gas from the 15th and 18th phases of the South Pars oil and gas field is not possible [until March 2012]. Unstable management of the Oil Ministry and appointment of non-experts have had negative impact on the joint South Pars [oil and gas] field as well."

1735 GMT: Economy Watch. Earlier this week, President Ahmadinejad assured the Iranian community in Kazakhstan, "No one is in need of his daily bread in Iran."

Shafaf News, seen as supportive of the Supreme Leader, has a sharp reply: "Mr. President, have you seen these pictures?"

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Iran Analysis: "The Green Movement Has Achieved Its Goal" (Jahanbegloo)

No doubt, the price of speaking truth to power was higher than expected for the Iranian civic actors. It resulted in massive arrests, Stalinist-style show trials, torture, rape, and murder. Also, the nature of Iran’s system, with its power split between two centers --- the president and the supreme leader --- has complicated and slowed down the process of change.

Even so, the Green Movement has achieved its goal by gaining the moral high ground, revealing to the world the true face of the Islamic regime, and draining away much of its political legitimacy. Further, it has hastened the end of Khomeinism by exposing the existent political rifts within the Iranian political power.

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The Latest from Iran (14 June): Presenting the Morality Police

New recruits to the morality police listen to instructions from a commander (more photos at bottom of LiveBlog)

2015 GMT: Press Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi said today that he has summoned the manager of Iran newspaper for insults against the head of judiciary and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

2000 GMT: The US Hikers. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said a final decision in the case of three US hikers, charged with espionage, is expected Americans charged with espionage by late August.

Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal are still in custody after almost 23 months in detention. The latest hearing in their trial was cancelled without explanation on 11 May.

Sarah Shourd was released in September 2010 on $500,000 bail and has refused to return to Iran for trial.

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The Latest from Iran (13 June): Back to the "Normal" of In-Fighting

1755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Saber Edition). The wife of journalist Hoda Saber, who passed away after a hunger strike in Evin Prison, claimed on Sunday: ""My husband died two days ago, but we were unaware of his death until today when someone in the hospital informed one of our friends."

1750 GMT: Corruption Watch. Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has confirmed that leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli is formally accusing 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi of corruption. Mohseni-Ejei said judicial deputies had met with President Ahmadinejad to discuss the matter.

Rahimi has been accused by critics of involvement in a massive insurance fraud.

1730 GMT: Warning of the Day. A writer for http://digarban.com/node/1314" target="_blank">the hardline Raja News claims that supporters of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, formerly an ally of the President, have warned the Ahmadinejad camp: "When you trespass the red lines, we will act."

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Iran Analysis: What We "Know" About Sunday's Protest, Two Years after the Election

The message did get out inside Iran, and some people dared to respond. Sceptics and regime defenders, self-blinded to any information or oblivious to the context of any show of protest, will put up empty denials or set up barriers: "Where is the video?" This, however, will not erase that there was some defiance on 22 Khordad.

The story is this. Legitimacy --- let alone justice, rights, or freedom --- has not been assured. No lack of detail, no shout of denial, no attempt to imprison or silence can obscure that bigger picture. 

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Iran Feature: The State of the Nation, Two Years Later (Peterson)

Azadi Square, Tehran, 15 June 2009Today the testy president and his aides have challenged the power of Ayatollah Khamenei. Conservative rivals now dismiss them as a “deviant current” obsessed with the imminent return of the Shiite messiah.

Close aides have been arrested for sorcery and witchcraft, and there is talk that Mr. Ahmadinejad will not survive the rest of his four-year term. The Leader’s deputy representative to the Revolutionary Guard even declared this week that “the current of deviation… is the gravest danger in the history of Shiite Islam.”

So while the regime was successful in brutally putting down the largest popular protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, it appears anything but triumphant today.

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