The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media

Three years later, 12 June resonates. It represents the successes and failures of a region struggling to gain independence from old ideologies or colonial pasts. It represents the ability for a single individual to use new technology to become an agent of change. It represents the struggle of the media to cope with this change, to engage and understand a globally-connected world in an age of shrinking budgets and slashed news rooms. It also represents where the seed of EA WorldView was planted.

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Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)

Mir Hossein Mousavi with Al Jazeera English, 11 June 2009

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On my visits to Iran, and afterwards in correspondence with friends and colleagues, I have learned about and been reminded often of the "third generation", those Iranians who came of age after the Islamic Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Quite often, the third generation was characterised as detached from the Revolution, disillusioned, dissatisfied. In recent weeks, however, the third generation --- and more than a few other Iranians --- have been in rallies, on the streets (on Monday, there was the largest outside gathering in more than a decade), and, yes, even on Facebook with excitement and some expectation.

I don't know if this constitutes a "Gradual Revolution", another phrase that I have frequently heard. I certainly would not twist and misrepresent it with the politically-loaded "Velvet Revolution". But, again as an outsider, there has been an opening of debate and thus of political space which could be significant not just for this election but for years to come.

Put simply --- and anticipating Western headlines after Friday about "The Obama Effect" in Iran, about "moderates" v. "hard-liners", about reinforcement or downfall of an Axis running from Iran to Syria to Lebanon's Hezbollah to Palestine's hamas --- these events first and foremost are not about the US. They are not about a clash in the Middle East, in nuclear arsenals, between civilisations.

These events are about Iranians: their concerns, their hopes, their ideals. And, whatever the outcome tomorrow and in the second round, they should be respected as such.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)

From Colin Freeman in The Daily Telegraph: "The jostling crowds of a rock gig moshpit, and the carefully choreographed build-up of a World Wrestling Federation grudge match....Rather like promoters for the Rolling Stones or the late James Brown, the president's aides like to keep his fans waiting....One speaker yelled with razzmatazz worthy of TV darts presenter Sid Waddell."

My favourite allusion? "Rather like the punk rock group the Sex Pistols, or the singer Pete Doherty, it is not unusual, apparently, for the president to plan a gig but then fail to show."

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Sid Vicious. I'm not sure it does much for political analysis, but it's an image that burns on the mind.

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Iran Letter: An Imprisoned Blogger Writes the Supreme Leader

Hossein Ronaghi MalekiI am of the belief, every human being’s silence against oppression and injustice is a betrayal of the innocent blood of the martyrs of this land....

I will repeat a quote from the Exalted Prophet Mohamad: “The land and government will survive under blasphemy but will not last under oppression.”

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The Latest from Iran (21 May): A Freudian Slip on the Economy

See also The Latest from Iran (20 May): A Tip of the Hat to President Obama?

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1824 GMT:. Fraud Watch. In the 11th hearing in the trial of dozens of defendants over a $2.6 billion bank fraud, a former deputy at the Ministry of Industry has accused Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament's National Security Committee, of involvement.

1813 GMT: Death to the Rapper Watch. Hojatoleslam Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the head of the Administration Court, is the latest cleric to call for the killing of rapper Shahin Najafi because of his "insult to Imams" with his song "Naqi".

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The Latest from Iran (20 May): A Tip of the Hat to President Obama?

Nikahang Kowsar portrays a President Obama tying up Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the cord of sanctions, "A good boy doesn't play with nukes"

See also The Latest from Iran (19 May): Bad Numbers for Ahmadinejad and Regime's "Islamic Awakening"

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1727 GMT: All the President's Men. Mehr reports that Hamid Pourmohammadi, the former deputy head of the Central Bank, is continuing to attend important meetings of the Ahmadinejad administration even though he is accused of playing a part in the $2.6 billion bank fraud and is currently free on bail.

Mehr published a photo of Pourmohammadi at the recent meeting of the Petrochemical Industry Development Committee with 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Pourmohammadi’s presence at government meetings has also been challenged by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on his website Alef.

1723 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Respond. Revolutionary Guards Commander Ramezan Sharif has hid back at the accusations of conservative MP Ali Motahari (see 1349 GMT) --- Sharif said the Guards had no role in Parliamentary elections and Motahari should present any evidence that he has.

The commander added that prosecution of Motahari for libel was possible.

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Iran 1st-Hand: Reports from a Controlled Election (Secor)

Sweeping Up Campaign Flyers, 25 FebruaryIran, vast and restive, had a way of revealing itself, even in bad times. The Green Movement had been forced underground, but it remained a preoccupation, even among hard-liners. One day, my handlers directed me to a campaign event: a debate among conservative parliamentary candidates at Tehran University, organized by the Basij. The room was filled, and my translator and I stood in the back.

A brave soul approached the microphone and inquired, in Farsi, “If we object to the policies of the nezam, what recourse do we have?” In Iran, the word nezam — “the system” — refers to the country’s unusual political structure, which combines a theocracy, ruled by a Supreme Leader and his executors, and a republic, with elected officials and public debates.

One of the panelists, Hamid Rasai, a white-turbaned cleric in an olive-green robe, replied, “Most people don’t think like you. Most people are from the Basij. You who complain are in the minority.”

The crowd roared with applause. Rasai represented the Steadfastness Front, an arch-conservative group of parliamentary candidates associated with a cleric, in Qom, who had once remarked that anyone offering a new interpretation of Islam should be punched in the mouth.

Rasai’s dismissive remark was the reverse of a claim that I had often heard from Iranian reformists: that only a fifth of the populace supported the Basij and that most Iranians were reformists or liberal-minded. Neither appraisal was verifiable in a country without reliable polling. But their concurrence conveyed a different kind of truth. Iranian society had become not just divided but adversarial, with entire communities denying one another’s existence.

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Iran 1st-Hand: "The Regime is Really Worried. They're Caught in a Bind" (Secor)

This week's Tehran Book FairThey’re bracing to be hit. And I think that they’re really worried, and I think they’re caught in a bind over how to spin the situation. When I was there, the policy was obfuscation. They hadn’t issued figures on household goods in over a year. About two weeks ago, the Central Bank started to release numbers. They seem to have made a decision. Is that to say, ‘We’re going to do something about it?’ Is it to blame the international community?

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The Latest from Iran (11 May): The Battle Within

"Naqi", the song that led to an Ayatollah's call for the death of rapper Shahin Najafi (see 0620 and 1200 GMT)

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Isolating Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (10 May): Supreme Leader Comments on Detained Mousavi and Karroubi

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2035 GMT: At the Book Fair. The next level of censorship at the 25th Tehran International Book Fair....

After at least 11 publishers were banned from the exhibition, another six booths have been shut down for inappropriate displays. Two reportedly had posters of Nashr Cheshmeh, one of the banned publishers. Another had a posted of the famous Persian king Cyrus.

1720 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Nothing distinctive in the President's speech during his promotional tour in northeastern Iran (see 1400 GMT)....

Speaking in Rashtkhvar, Ahmadinejad says the West should drop its “bullying” stance: “If the Iranian nation makes up its mind to do something, all devils and ill-wishers of the world cannot make them backtrack on their resolve."

The President continued that worship of the Devil, wealth, power, or worldly whims instead of God was the root cause of all human problems: “If the world powers worship the Almighty God, they will not make stockpiles of nuclear and chemical arsenals and will not try to occupy other territories.

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