Iran Special Analysis: After 25 Bahman's Success, The Challenges for the Green Movement (Tehrani)

Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?

The rallies of 25 Bahman certainly blew the "breath of life" --- to borrow Karroubi's phrase --- into a stagnant Green movement, but it also brought to the fore compelling questions which need carefully-crafted answers.

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The Latest from Iran (16 February): The Regime Hits Back

2145 GMT: Punishing the 25 Bahman Error. Opposition websites are reporting that two managers of the conservative Aftab News have been arrested over an incident on Monday.

Aftab briefly reported that a permit had been granted for the opposition rally. The article was quickly pulled and the site taken off-line.

Aftab also reported that Turkish President Abdullah Gul, visiting Iran, had asked to join the march.

2135 GMT: Rafsanjani Chooses a Side? The Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, has exalted last Friday's regime celebration of the Islamic Revolution and denounced Monday's opposition rallies as a "counter-revolutionary" movement of heretics supported by the US and Israel.

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The Latest from Iran (15 February): Watching a Revival

2110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Ali Nabavi, whose wife Atefeh is already imprisoned, has been arrested.

2105 GMT: Deaths on 25 Bahman. Iranian officials are naming a second fatality in Monday's protests, 22-year-old Mohamad Mokhtari, 22, claiming he was shot by the banned Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO)

This morning, the Government also said Sanee Zhaleh, 26, had been killed by the MKO. That claim has also come under pressure with a photograph linking Zhaleh to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, an opponent of the regime (see 1650 GMT).

2034 GMT: Prediction Come True. We said in our analysis this morning (see separate entry) that the regime would respond to Monday's marches by ramping up the intimidation and arrests.

And so it is already coming to pass. Tahavole Sabz reports a group of pro-Government men gathered in front of Mehdi Karroubi's residence this afternoon, chanting slogans against him.

The crowd assembled after a call by a website linked to the Government for a rally against Mir at Ark Square in front of the Tehran Prosecutor's office against Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose effigy was hung. After a few hours, the group moved towards Karroubi's residence.

Karroubi is under effective house arrest, prevented by security forces from leaving his home.

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Latest from Iran (5 February): Speaking of Egypt....

1700 GMT: Just Asking. Why weren't former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, Presidential candidate in 1997, at the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers?

1655 GMT: Reply of the Day. The Expediency Council, which is formally mandated to resolve disputes between branches of the Iranian system, has recently been criticised by President Ahmadinejad for hindering his plans.

The response, according to Green Voice of Freedom: "Mr President, you don't like what we are doing? Change the Constitution".

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The Latest from Iran (18 January): Life Goes On

2130 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man. He may be disliked by many, but Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is still putting about his wise words. Akhbar Rooz reports that books of the thoughts of the aide and Ahmadinejad confidante are being distributed to Government officials.

2120 GMT: Worst Diplomatic Statement of the Week. The Iranian Embassy in Kabul issued a statement on Monday, “Currently 16 fuel tankers are waiting at the Meelk-Dogharon border....for their turn to enter Afghanistan, and will enter Afghanistan's soil during next few days after legal formalities are completed.”

16? Iran is currently holding up to 2500 tankers at the Afghan border.

2035 GMT: Competition Time. A photo of President Ahmadinejad getting a lovely present from the staff of the Islamic Republic News Agency this morning. You supply the caption....

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Iran Video and Transcript: Revisiting The Opposition Case for an Illegitimate Election (21 June 2009)

During the Presidential campaign and election of 12 June 2009, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour was the head of the Committee to Protect the Vote. On 21 June, two days after the Supreme Leader had reaffirmed at Friday Prayers that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election, Mohtashamipour made a lengthy public statement in which he set out the case for a flawed ballot and set the conditions for a proper review.

Mohtashamipour's basic demand --- for an independent committee to enquire into the vote, as the Guardian Council, the Islamic Republic's body overseeing political matters, had been compromised by support of its members for President Ahmadinejad --- was quickly rejected. The Council conducted a limited recount of ballots and issued a report in July declaring that there was no irregularities in the election.

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WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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Iran Eyewitness: Watching the Supreme Leader's Mission in Qom (Azadi)

This is why the trip to Qom, Khamenei's first in more than a decade, is significant: this Supreme Leader is unprecedented in trying to obtain the highest clerical status through the use of mass media. Crowds are shown welcoming him, he gives a speech to a packed square, and he is exalted through the state's broadcasting and print outlets. 

But a true Grand Ayatollah does not establish his credentials through TV, newspapers, and computer screens. His legitimacy comes from reputation and the informal declarations of followers when they are away from the video cameras. A Grand Ayatollah cannot announce his authority; it is conferred upon him by the respect of peers and worshippers.

So Khamenei can pursue his campaign in Qom, which now enters its fourth day, with more and more publicity, but he cannot succeed unless there is a shift in his reception behind closed doors as well as on the television screens.

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