The Latest from Iran (18 December): A Big Event?

1945 GMT: Two Steps Ahead? Meanwhile, on the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad is racing ahead with his "engagement" of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) in discussions on Iran's uranium enrichment.

Iran and the 5+1 agreed last week to further talks in Turkey in January but Ahmadinejad went further in his speech: "“I hope in talks in Istanbul, then in Brazil and then Tehran we could reach a framework of cooperation… this is to everyone's benefit. There were positive points in [Geneva] talks… I think it is time that their [the P5+1] confrontational policy turns into interactional policy."

1935 GMT: Sedition Watch (cont.). Rah-e-Sabz puts its gloss on the resistance of the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to the arrest of opposition figures (see 1650 GMT). According to the Green website, Larijani responded to those calling for the detention of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi: "You have blamed the Supreme Leader indirectly by taking the judiciary as a shield (for your demands)."

1920 GMT: Subsidy Cuts? Yes. Ahh, here we go. Just catching up with Mardomak's LiveBlog....

IRNA's headline covered only the first couple of minutes of the speech. Almost all the statement, with declarations of Iran's potential to become a world-leading economy, was a presentation of the subsidy cuts. Ahmadinejad confirmed the chatter that implementation will begin tomorrow. He gave assurances such as the deposit of 4000 tomans (about $4) in people's bank accounts to cover the reduction in subsidies for bread. Each individual would receive a total of 81,000 tomans ($81) over the next two months.

Fars beats other websites to the punch with an article on Ahmadinejad's presentation of the "largest project in the economic history of Iran". Indeed, Fars has no less than five items playing up the subsidy cuts, with assurances that support payments for the poorest Iranians are fully-funded.

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The Latest from Iran (17 December): Did We Miss the Regime's Show of Support?

1645 GMT: Division over the Foreign Minister. Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard has supported President Ahmadinejad's dismissal of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, but MP Mohsen Kouhkan, who said he heard of Mottaki's firing by SMS text, said the move was not wise at this moment.

Koukhan also claimed that MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a key member of the National Security Commission, is favoured as the new Foreign Minister by the Parliament.

1640 GMT: Ashura Moment. Aftab News publishes a photograph of President Ahmadinejad greeting supporters at a mourning ceremony.

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Iran Feature: The Battle Within and The Protests Are Still The Stories (Miller)

Western audiences, and especially Americans, don't like complicated, sad stories.  We like good guys and bad guys, cowboys and Indians, terrorists and allies.  We don't like to hear that 40-60% of the population of a country that we view as an enemy might very well be a friend.  We don't like to hear that the government we are negotiating with is illegitimate, or weak.  We also don't like to follow the slow development of an opposition movement that we can do little to help.  We like sexy stories like weapons of mass destruction or revolution, and we certainly like clarity.

Unfortunately, as long as we're not paying attention, we're also not helping, and until the media starts to cover these stories, many more people may die before things improve in Iran.

(Photograph by Munzz)

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The Latest from Iran (13 December): Political Battles and Human Rights

2005 GMT: Signal of the Day. This might be the most telling news item about the future of Iranian diplomacy on the day that Foreign Minister Mottaki was fired.

While Mottaki was in Senegal on his last state trip, another Iranian emissary was leading a delegation to the strategic country of Jordan.

That emissary? President Ahmadinejad’s Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

That's right. The same Rahim-Mashai whose designation as a special envoy this summer prompted Mottaki's threat to resign and the Supreme Leader's chiding of the President for a "parallel" foreign policy, bringing a promise that Rahim-Mashai's position would be downgraded.

2000 GMT: Reaction to the Dismissal. We reported earlier (see 1654 GMT) that Alaeddine Boroujerdi, the chairman of the National Security Commission. learned of Foreign Minister Mottaki's dismissal from a Khabar Online reporter. His reaction is worth repeating in full: "Isn't Mr. Mottaki on a trip? You mean the dismissal decree was issued while he was on a mission?"

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The Latest from Iran (12 December): Messages, "Confessions", and Those Behind Bars

2035 GMT: Economy (Oversight) Watch. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has not published data on economic growth for 28 months.

Economist Mohsen Renani, in comments published in the conservative Aftab, has alleged that academic studies on effects of subsidy cuts are censored and media are not allowed to publish data. He asserts that subsidy cuts will stop development for several generations and cause social crisis.

MP Hassan Ghafourifard chimes in, warning the Govt does not know how to implement subsidy cuts.

2030 GMT: The Battle Within. Meanwhile, even as Ayatollahs Mahdavi Kani and Mesbah Yazdi declare that unity will emerge amongst principlists, the feuding within the establishment continues. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has lashed out at former Minister of Justice Gholam-Hossein Elham, who criticised the prosecutor for supporting sedition. Doulatabadi responded that "obviously a new fitna movement is taking shape" within the system.

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The Latest from Iran (7 December): 16 Azar

2115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Masoud Lavasani has been summoned to Evin Prison to serve his 4 1/2-year prison sentence.

Lavasani was arrested on 26 July 2009 at his home.

Ahmad Reza Khadem of the National Front has been sentenced to 40 months in prison.

Muhammad Nawaz, a follower of the detained Ayatollah Boroujerdi, has been detained.

2043 GMT: Parliament v. President. I know 16 Azar has been dramatic, but don't forget the ongoing story of the challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

MP Darioush Ghanbari says that several reformists have signed the letter, organised by principlists opposing the President, to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis for questioning.

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Iran Feature: A Cartoon Reply to Tehran's Apologists over Human Rights

This morning a pro-Government website pays tribute to the recent US public-relations tour of Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the human rights section of Iran's judiciary. Posting the transcript of his interview with Charlie Rose of the US Public Broadcasting Service, they hail Larijani's "glimpse of how important supporters of the Islamic Republic regard the rule of law as a governing principle of their political order".

I think Mana Neyestani is far more eloquent with just one cartoon:

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The Latest from Iran (28 November): Politics Does Not Stop

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The names of four of the seven activists detained in Marivan in Iranian Kurdistan have been published.

1550 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The Supreme Leader's represetnative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, has renewed the allegation that the children of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- Mehdi Hashemi and Faezeh Hashemi --- were involved in the 2009 "sedition".

The regime has elevated its threats in recent weeks to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who is currently in London.

1510 GMT: Press Watch. The managing directors of the conservative newspapers Fararu and Tabnak have been convicted of charges in a Tehran court.

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The Latest from Iran (27 November): Breaking News --- Supreme Leader is Fabulous

1335 GMT: Parliament v. President. Someone is getting worried that the effort to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questioning may succeed. Follow this carefully....

The pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming that Ali Motahari, the MP leading the campaign for Ahmadinejad's interpellation, has struck a deal with the reformists: if Motahari can deliver 50 signatures on the petition for the President's appearance, the minority faction will give him 25 endorsements. That would make 75, more than the requirement of 1/4 of the 290-member Majlis.

On the surface, the story appears to be a triumph for Motahari, but I suspect it is an un-subtle attempt to tarnish him by claiming that he has resorted to devious scheming with the dubious reformists. Motahari, for his part, has claimed that almost all the signatures on his petition are from the majority principlist faction.

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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Taking a Break?

2144 GMT: Election and Sedition. Another take-away from the Supreme Leader's speech to Basij militia today....

Ayatollah Khamenei said the post-election protesters put their desire for power above the Islamic Republic in a “complex sedition” which endangered the “interests of the country and the righteousness of its path". He added, “They acted in such a way that drew the excitement and support of Western leaders and the Iranian nation’s first grade enemies.”

The Supreme Leader also laid down the lines on loyalty: “A society is either led by the just Imam...or it is run by human beings who know nothing of righteousness....It cannot be any other way.”

2138 GMT: Controlling the Mourning. As the anniversary of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Commander Mohammad Reza Heydari has announced the establishment of "Muharram Police" in Qom to control religious ceremonies.

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