The confirmation on Wednesday of the New START Treaty with Russia concluded a staggering turnaround in the fortunes of the Obama Administration. Even the tax cuts of the previous week, initially presented as a victory for the Republicans holding the President hostage to their demands, have now become part of the triumphal story of Barack Obama as the Comeback Kid.
On 20 November 2009, the day before the plane was to leave for a nuclear facility in Russia, Libyan officials unexpectedly halted the shipment. Without explanation, they declared that the uranium would not be permitted to leave Libya. They left the seven five-ton casks out in the open and under light guard, vulnerable to theft by the al-Qaeda factions that still operate in the region or by any rogue government that learned of their presence.
For one month and one day, U.S. and Russian diplomats negotiated with Libya for the uranium to be released and flown out of the country.
These conclusions in the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme are far from dramatic. Much of the wording could have been taken from any IAEA finding of the last two years: there is no evidence that Tehran is shifting uranium to make a nuclear weapon, but the Agency cannot be sure because it has not gotten access to all areas of the programme.
No, what is notable about the IAEA report is the "spin" being put on it by media, fed by unnamed officials. On almost every occasion in the last two to three years, reporters from leading US newspapers would have trumpeted that the IAEA had shown Iran was on the verge of material for at least one bomb in the next year and that Tehran was guilty of hiding this effort.
Yesterday, however, that guilty verdict was missing.
Those expecting a radical change of NATO nuclear policy, or even an agreement to withdraw the 200 US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, are likely to be disappointed. But this not equate to lack of "progress": to the contrary, modifying its nuclear declaratory policy, NATO will begin moving towards a position where these weapons can be removed or at least ensure that its policy is broadly supportive of the international non-proliferation regime and the quest for a nuclear free world.
0645 GMT: Sigh....
Yesterday we began with a letter from detained activist Majid Tavakoli to Iranian students, a letter which I think articulately --- and poignantly --- set out the extent of the Government's repression but held out hope: "Despotism's palace is shaking on its foundations."
At no point did Tavakoli, sitting in Rajai Shahr Prison, expend his ink on Iran's nuclear programme or its relations with the West. The emergency and confrontation was much closer to home, and the aspiration had little to do with uranium: "I know that we will be together to joyfully celebrate liberty."
This morning opens far differently, thousands of miles away. Phillip Stephens of The Financial Times writes an account of discussions amongst the West's best and brightest at the Aspen European Strategy Forum, "Caught Between Bombing Iran and an Iranian Bomb".
"Iran" is not necessarily about a day-by-day fretting about the Bomb and Apocalypse. That scenario only feeds into the rhetoric of a regime all too ready to deal with more important matters --- for example, the suppression of dissident --- by holding up the US and its allies as menaces ready to strike Tehran.
No, rather than offer the easy answer or prescription, "It's all about nukes", a day-by-day assessment might begin with regard to the Iranian people and their political, economic, social, and religious situation. Far from Aspen's lavish banquets and its chit-chat, that might be the best way to approach Majid Tavakoli and hundreds --- thousands --- of others like him.
Friday, December 24, 2010 at 7:07