Israel-Gaza-Hamas Analysis: 4 Lessons from the Recent Conflict

Hamas appears fragile and divided over its actions, nearing a possible September vote in the United Nations General Assembly on recognition of a Palestinian state. But Hamas also showed once again --- despite its weakness and division --- that it exists in the Gaza Strip and that Israel has to negotiate with it if West Jerusalem wants order in the south of the country. The immediate escalation after the bus attack increased Hamas's bargaining powerwith Israel, Egypt and, indirectly, with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.

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Israel-Gaza Latest: Airstrikes Kill 6+ Palestinians, 2 Egypt Soldiers after Border Attack Slays 8 Israelis (Al Jazeera English)

UPDATE 1025 GMT: Israeli officials say one person has been seriously injured and others hurt in the Israeli town of Ashdod by a rocket, one of 12 fired from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel.

Israeli reports said rockets were fired at Ashkelon, Beersheva, Kiryat Gat, and Ashdod.

Al Jazeera English summarises a deadly Thursday:

Israeli aircraft have struck Hamas security installations in Gaza, killing at least six Palestinians, in further retaliation for attacks along the Egyptian border in which eight Israelis died.

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Israel-Palestine Special: Assessing the Move for UN Recognition of a Palestinian State

This time, Washington has to bring something more than Obama’s speech, with more flexibility for the European Union initiative, to the table. One possibility? Acknowledging Hamas behind closed doors, giving Abbas a guarantee that Ramallah will never need to recognise a “Jewish state”, and promising a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital in a year.

At the same time, a sign can be given to Prime Minister Netanyahu that he can be a peace-making hero ahead of Israeli elections. How? The release of Gilad Shalit, the detained Israel soldier, by Hamas.

And if this is not pursued? Well, get ready for the September display at the United Nations.

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Israel-Palestine Special: Assessing the Move for UN Recognition of a Palestinian State

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Turkey-Israel Feature: As a New Flotilla Prepares to Sail, Ankara and West Jerusalem Endure the Chill (Slavin)

Turkey and Israel are close to resolving their dispute over last year's flotilla fiasco, but the partnership that existed between them for more than a decade will almost certainly stay submerged.

As a new flotilla of ships prepared to set sail for Gaza Tuesday, Turkish and Israeli officials and analysts said that only a major breakthrough on Israeli-Palestinian peace could begin to revive a relationship that once featured joint military exercises and hordes of Israeli tourists visiting Istanbul. Even then, the officials said, they doubted that the warmth of the 1990s and the mid-2000s would resurface.

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The Latest from Iran (29 May): "Death to Deviant Mashai"

2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. More volleys this weekend in the political conflict --- former Presidential advisor and current head of IRNA Ali Akbar Javanfekr warns of a "parliamentary dictatorship", while Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Ali Jafari says the "deviant current" was trying to make money through the private sector and then using this to influence future elections.

2015 GMT: Khamenei v. Ahmadinejad. More on this weekend's clash between the Supreme Leader's supporters and those of the President, courtesy of Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in Fars Province, Ayatollah Asadollah Imani.

Imani criticised the Minister of Interior, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, for replacing the provincial governor, Abdollah Hosseini with Farhad Sajjadi. The ayatollah claimed Hosseini had resisted against pressure from the "deviant current" around Ahmadinejad.

A pro-Khamenei website adds that Hosseini had been pressured by Najjar to resign as governor ever since his appointment and had told Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, "I will not be a 'yes, sir' man."

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Israel Special: The Annotated Version of Netanyahu Speech to US Congress (Friedman)

Israel has no better friend than America, and America has no better friend than Israel [and don't you let Obama forget it]. (Applause.) We stand together to defend democracy [except when, like with Egypt, we have mixed feelings about it]. We stand together to advance peace [except when your president asks me to do things I don't want to do]. We stand together to fight terrorism [and anyone who suggests that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in any way provides a rallying cry for extremism, well, they are anti-Semites trying to delegitimize of Israel].

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US-Israel Video & Transcript: President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu Speak to Press

Video and transcript of the remarks by US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after their meeting in the White House today:

PRESIDENT OBAMA:  Well, let me, first of all, welcome again Prime Minister Netanyahu, who I think has now been here seven times during the course of my presidency.  And I want to indicate that the frequency of these meetings is an indication of the extraordinary bonds between our two countries, as is the opportunity for the Prime Minister to address Congress during his visit here.

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Middle East Special: Assessing Obama's Speech "It's Domestic Politics, Stupid"

Little new was said in this speech, despite the hype. Negotiations between the US and other nations, especially on issues as complicated at Israel and Palestine, do not happen in a public forum in a 40-minute address. This moment at the podium is unlikely to have a huge effect on how the international community, or the Middle East, views Obama.

Instead, the President was looking at many of the Republicans who have vowed to block him at every turn, many Democrats who are frustrated with the lack of progress in his foreign policy, and many Americans who are scared of what they do not understand, namely a rapidly-changing political situation in the Middle East.

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Middle East Video and Transcript: The Obama Speech

See also Middle East Special: Live Analysis of Obama Speech as It is Delivered

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you.  Thank you.  (Applause.)  Thank you very much.  Thank you.  Please, have a seat.  Thank you very much.  I want to begin by thanking Hillary Clinton, who has traveled so much these last six months that she is approaching a new landmark -- one million frequent flyer miles.  (Laughter.)  I count on Hillary every single day, and I believe that she will go down as one of the finest Secretaries of State in our nation’s history.

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