Turkey-Syria Analysis: What Will Ankara Do Now? What Should It Do?

Turkey's Erdogan with Syria's AssadWednesday's mortar that fell on Akcakale in southeastern Turkey was not the first fired by Syrian forces across the border, but it was the first to kill Turkish civilians, slaying three women and two children. So --- given that Syria's downing of a Turkish reconnaissance aircraft in July and subsequent manoeuvres near the border had brought Ankara's warning of a red line --- Ankara's retaliation with artillery fire against Syrian bases was not surprising.

The question was and still is: what comes next?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Historic Aleppo Burns

See also US War on Terror Feature: The Death of a Guantanamo Bay Detainee
Saudi Arabia Feature: The Trial of the Political Dissidents
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Political Drift in New York, Military Confrontation in Aleppo

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1925 GMT: Yemen. The World Food Programme has said that almost 50% of Yemenis go hungry amid the world's third-highest rate of child malnutrition.

"Five million people, or 22 percent of the population, can't feed themselves or buy enough to feed themselves....These are mostly landless laborers, so they don't grow their own food, and with high food prices they can't buy it either," WFP spokesman Barry Came said. "In addition, there is another five million who are being really hard hit by high food prices and on the edge of being food insecure. So 10 million people in this country go to bed hungry every night."

The number of Yemenis receiving daily WFP food rations has risen from 1.2 million in January to more than 3.8 million, but poor infrastructure and fear of kidnappings have complicated the logistics of providing food aid.

Thirteen percent of Yemeni children are now acutely malnourished.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Bloodiest Day in the Conflict?

Footage from Al-Manar TV of the aftermath of Wednesday's bombings and attack by insurgents on Army Staff HQ in Damascus, with gun battles and bodies of three opposition fighters inside the building

See also Syria Analysis: Huge Stories, Small Headlines, and the Future of Insurgency
EA Video Analysis: Syria --- An Introduction to "The Grind of the Conflict"
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Double Explosion Hits Army Staff HQ in Damascus

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2037 GMT: Iraq. CNN's Ivan Watson reports on thousands of internally-dsiplaced Syrians, camping out and sleeping in the dirt because they cannot cross the Turkish border:

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Turkey Interview: Prime Minister Erdoğan on Syria, His Political Future, and Imprisoned Journalists

In this two-part video from an interview with Christiane Amanpour of CNN, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is forthright about Syria, declaring that President Assad is "politically a deceased person" and claiming that the US elections are holding Washington back from necessary intervention.

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Turkey Special: Ankara is Overtaken By Events in Syria's Kurdistan

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Last week's Moscow trip was supposed to resolve the Erdogan Government's position, both over Syria and over its domestic affairs. Five days later, it has become history, one that offers no resolution for the emerging difficulties for the Prime Minister and his party.

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Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan

Prime Minister ErdoganThe Erdogan government will try to rely on a "security-first" agenda to challenge both the opposition parties and the PKK, at the same time promoting its synthesis of nationalism and Islam.

However, Ankara now has to review its calculation that playing the game with more players and more cards would turn the situation to its advantage. Both Iraqi Kurdish leader Barzani's involvement and the changing Syrian situation pose a question: what will Erdogan do if an autonomous Kurdish region is declared not only in Syria but in southeastern Turkey?

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Turkey Live Coverage (30 May): The European Link to the Kurdish Problem?

1800 GMT: One again, Turkish Foreign Ministry calls on Turkish citizens not to travel to Syria for their own safety.

1720 GMT: When asked about his opinion regarding the government's plan to prepare an abortion law, Health Minister Recep Akdag said: 

Some say, 'what  if something happens to the mother'. If necessary, the state will take care of that baby. If we are to make law on this, we need to take measures accordingly.

1455 GMT: The families of civilians killed in Uludere are reportedly going to stage a sit-in protest in the same area Turkish jets bombed since the murderers have not been found in the last five months. 

1420 GMT: It is reported that Turkish Armed Forces (TSK)'s special units coupled with around 200 vehicles and Cobra helicopters are sent to the province of Sirnak while operations are continuing flat out in another province of Mus.

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Turkey Live Coverage (23 May): Tough Line on "Counter-Terrorism"...and Israel's Military

1725 GMT: Diyarbakir's Mayor Osman Baydemir hosted the native Indian music group Inca Sol. Baydemir said:

Kurdish people understand you very well. Kurds have experienced the same tragedies your forefathers had faced. We would like you to know that Kurdish people has great respect to your people.

1600 GMT: Interior Minister İdris Naim Şahin accused the Assad regime for allowing PKK members to establish bases in Syrian territory. He claimed that even some PKK gorups were running small towns close to the Turkish border. Şahin continued:

Syria is turning a blind eye to terrorist groupings in areas close to the border to put Turkey in difficulty and perhaps as a way to take revenge on Turkey.

As known, Syria has also been accusing Turkey for training and arming the opposition forces within the turkish territories which is denied by Ankara.

1445 GMT: During his visit to Kazakhstan, Erdogan told his counterpart Karim Mansimov that they were very pleased to have carried the bilateral relations to strategic partnership in 2009. 

After he had stated that the total amount of Turkish business investment in the country reached around $2.5 billion, Erdogan said to Mansimov:

My brother, you know that I want 3 kids from each family in Turkey. You should say here not 3 but 5! Because all financial opportunities along with a vast area over 2 million 700 thousand square meters are fine. 

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Turkey Live Coverage (21 May): Regional and Global Dimensions of "Terrorism"

1630 GMT: After the Kurdistan Regional Government had announced a deal with Ankara that would allow them to export oil through Turkey and on to the international market, bypassing Baghdad; the central Iraqi government warned Arbil and said that the deals must abide by the constitution and laws that govern relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish north. 

1525 GMT: Turkish police detained three suspects for their suspected involvement in a plot to abduct a defected Syrian colonel who fled to Turkey.

1440 GMT: A special ops team officer was killed and five other security personnel were wounded in a clash with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Kulp, a district of Diyarbakır province.

As known, PKK members had kidnapped the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) Kulp branch head Veysel Çelik earlier.

1120 GMT: The Turkish daily Radikal claims that President Obama, during the Chicago Summit, has ordered the handover of operational control of the early warning radar system to NATO.

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Turkey Follow-Up: More Questions --- and No Answers --- About the Killing of 34 Civilians

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoganOn Wednesday, I asked about January's Uludere killings, in which 34 civilians died, who gave the order to jets to bomb? And, beyond the death, how does this incident --- and the claim that the "intelligence" behind the attack came from the US --- affect Turkey's relations within the context of its Kurdish problem? 

More questions....

Turkish Armed Forces said that the intelligence --- which apparently to smugglers being wrongly identified as Kurdish insurgents --- was given by "national sources", but when eyes turned to the National Intelligence Service (MIT), it denied that it provided information.

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