See also The Latest from Iran (21 May): A Freudian Slip on the Economy
Yukiya Amano and Saeed Jalili2009 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran continues to be upbeat about tomorrow's nuclear discussions, “Tehran is optimistic that the Baghdad talks would be a good start to promote cooperation in international, regional and nuclear issues."
However, this inside story from Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin of Al Monitor may put a damper on expectations:
The United States and its negotiating partners have agreed on a detailed confidence-building proposal to offer to Iran at nuclear negotiations due to get underway Wednesday in Baghdad. The proposed package is an updated version of a 2009 uranium fuel swap proposal that takes into account Iran’s progress in enriching uranium, American, Russian and European diplomats said.
While the details of the proposed package have not been made public, Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.
Iranian officials and State media have made clear that a significant easing of US-led sanctions, including a pause on the European Union's suspension of Iranian oil imports --- due to start 1 July --- must be on the table.
This is excluded from the proposal put out via Rozen:
Instead, the United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.
In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel.
A "current American official sets out the line, "If we talk substantively on elements of a deal and agree to meet again in three weeks, Baghdad will have been a success. Just hope the Iranians are not deluding themselves they are going to get sanctions relief now—that’s not going to happen at this stage.”
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Friday, May 25, 2012 at 7:33
Iran Delegation at Baghdad TalksWe are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".
