The Latest from Iran (15 September): Ahmadinejad and His Challenges

1710 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Move --- A Reminder (see 1310 and 1325 GMT). The Associated Press, for inexplicable reasons, is reporting that the President has "demoted" six aides from "senior envoys" to "advisors" for international affairs.

No, that's not a demotion, that's just another name for Ahmadinejad's staff as they take on foreign policy posts. (And AP might have noted that the President, far from backing down in the face of the Supreme Leader's criticism, has added two envoys-now-advisors to the four he originally named.)

And while we're talking who is trying to claim Iran's foreign policy, let's note a statement from the office of one of Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidents: it was the President who took the final decision on the release of US hiker Sarah Shourd, acting "for humanitarian reasons".

1700 GMT: Oil Squeeze (Subsidy Cut Edition). Tehran has postponed increasing the price of gasoline, despite the subsidy cut plan which was to be implemented next week.

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Iran Special: Sarah Shourd and Ahmadinejad's Gamble for Power (Gary Sick)

Iran has had bitter internal disputes ever since the revolution. What is different this time is that it has gone public. The release of Sarah Shourd, as welcome as it is, is only a symptom of a much larger process: the attempt by Ahmadinejad to make the presidency into an indispensable and ultimately independent policy-making center. In that contest, he has allied himself with the Revolutionary Guards, arguably the real power behind the sanctified throne in Iran, rather than the Supreme Leader.

This is not good news for the United States in its on-again off-again efforts to engage with Iran. Ahmadinejad has given some evidence of wanting to forge an opening to the United States, as have presidents before him. But Ahmadinejad, like his predecessors, is hostage to a hostile internal environment that fears a deal with America could interfere with the cozy military-industrial-political consortium involving not only the Supreme Leader but also his protectors and economic beneficiaries in the Revolutionary Guards.

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Iran Urgent: US Hiker Sarah Shourd Released ---- Her Statement

UPDATE 1930 GMT: A CNN journalist claims, "Senior US source says Oman paid Iran bail for US hiker Sarah Shourd. Shourd flew from Iran to Oman, who has been working issue for some time."

UPDATE 1800 GMT: Before she flew out of Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, Sarah Shourd told Press TV, "I want to really offer my thanks to everyone in the world, all of the governments, all of the people, that have been involved, and especially, particularly want to address President Ahmadinejad and all of the Iranian officials, the religious leaders, and thank them for this humanitarian gesture. I'm grateful and I'm very humbled by this moment."

UPDATE 1630 GMT: The families of the three US hikers who were detained in July 2009 --- Sarah Shourd, Shane Fattal, and Josh Bauer --- have issued a statement:

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Iran Breaking: Latest on Detained US Hiker Sarah Shourd

UPDATED 1525 GMT: The pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Republic News Agency, on its English-language site, is now reporting the Tehran Prosecutor's announcement that Sarah Shourd will be released on $500,000 bail, even though "the documents about three American spies indicated that they were not on an excursion in Iran". 

Interestingly, IRNA's Persian-language site still has no reference to the development.

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