Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind

Iran's media outlets and spokesmen are putting out the message that it is the US and Europe, not the Islamic Republic, who are economically weak --- this, rather than a genuine desire for agreement, is why Washington and allies are pursuing the nuclear talks. However, the argument is propaganda, not assessment, leaving the important question whether Tehran's officials actually believe the illusions of their rhetoric.

If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Given the economic difficulties within Iran, which cannot be masked by rose-coloured proclamations, and the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil imports from 1 July, US and European governments believe they have the upper hand. Having planned for alternative supplies to cover the drop in oil taken from Tehran, they can afford to play the game long. It is far from certain that the Islamic Republic can do so.

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Iran Special: How the Myth of the Green Movement and "Regime Change" Was Created

Protesters in Tehran's Azadi Square, 15 June 2009

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Three weeks ago, the Iranian site Khabar Online published an extended interview with Alireza Marandi --- the physician who returned from the US to become the Islamic Republic's first Minister of Health, a minister under Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi in the 1980s, and now a prominent MP from Tehran. While his name may not be well-known in the "West", Marandi's record and his "straight shooter" reputation make him a bastion of the establishment --- so when he speaks, the words carry weight.

The discussion is an extended denunciation of Mousavi, both in the 1980s and during the 2009 Presidential election. In that sense, with the former Presidential candidate now entering his 15th month of strict house arrest, it is far from surprising.

But amidst the damning of the Green Movement's figurehead, one passage deserves a feature. For Marandi's explanation of why Mousavi turned in 2009 from candidate to the would-be mastermind of "regime change" reveals how the myth was spread that Iran's protesters were merely the puppets of the "West" and the "seditious elements" within the Islamic Republic.

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The Latest from Iran (25 March): Expanding the Sanctions

Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi presents the regime line against expanded sanctions over Iran's alleged human rights violations

See also Iran Special: The 17 Leading Officials in New EU Sanctions for Human Rights Abuses
The Latest from Iran (24 March): Putting Out the Propaganda

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1925 GMT: After a report this week that it had signed a $130 million contract with Tehran for a surveillance system (see separate feature), ZTE Corp, China's second-largest telecommunications equipment maker, said it will "curtail" its business in Iran.

A spokesman said ZTE had decided "some time ago" to "shrink" its business in Iran, although he said the company had not yet decided on the details: "It's still being discussed."

1815 GMT: CyberWatch. The Next Web offers insight into the state of the Internet in Iran, by summarising how many of the top websites are blocked.

About 27% of the Top 100 sites in various categories, as measured by the Internet directory Alexa, are filtered. More than half of the Arts sites cannot be accessed, and 32% of news sites --- including BBC News, The Guardian, Fox News, The Huffington Post, and The New York Post are blocked, although CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, and Bloomberg can still be reached.

Among "Society" sites, 31% are blocked, as are 27% of those concerned with Shopping.

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The Latest from Iran (9 May): Ahmadinejad Bows Down?

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The husband of detained human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh says she has been cut off from her family for the past 10 days.

Reza Khandan said he has not been allowed telephone contact with his wife since she was transferred to a different ward in Evin Prison.

Sotoudeh was sentenced in December to 11 years in prison and a 20-year ban on the practice of law.

1855 GMT: Fashion Police. More on Iran's "moral security" force (see 1215 GMT), with 70,000 officers reportedly taking to the streets to enforce proper fashion and behaviour....

Commander Ahmad Rouzbehani, the head of the force, explained, “In some instances, some people have been seen to take off their head covering in their vehicles. Such vehicles will be stopped and their passengers will be referred to the judiciary.”

Commander Rouzbehani also listed “installation of satellite dishes and sale of alcoholic drinks” as violations.

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The Latest from Iran (11 February): The Regime's Big Show?

2205 GMT: Claim of the Night. An opposition website asserts, "The word 'Bahman' has been filtered in Iran Farsi Google search."

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mohammad Housein Mehyimni, the son of the former Governor of Golestan Province, has been arrested.

2130 GMT: A New Role. What better way to end 22 Bahman than with a feel-good story?

The Basij militia are providing the dowries of needy brides.

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