A convoy of insurgents, armed with new weapons, moves into Al Qaddam in Damascus
The obvious question remains ---- who is sending these weapons to the opposition? We are still working on the answer.
However, beyond the source is the outcome: someone significant is arming the insurgency, and those arms are propelling them in an offensive attacking the heart of President Assad's regime.
Friday, February 8, 2013 at 1:39 | Scott Lucas in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran Too many attacks --- this entry has been moved to the top of the page with the correct title, "Syria Live Coverage: Watching the Attack in Damascus".
Syria Thursday, February 7, 2013 at 6:10 | James Miller in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran 2140 GMT: Someone is Arming the Rebels - Update. Yesterday, we published a separate article, Syria Analysis: Someone is Arming the Insurgents...and It's Working. Today, Brown Moses and I have seen much more evidence of this in action. A Free Syrian Army group from Daraa, the Ababil Horan Brigade, has moved from the south and have entered the Qadam district in southern Damascus. Not only this, but they are carrying with them M79 Osa anti-tank weapons, at least one RBG-6 grenade launcher, and at least one M60 recoilless rifle (which was spotted on February 3rd). In other words, multiple foreign-made weapons that we've written about in yesterday's article are all present, within the same group, and have all been deployed to attack Damascus as part of the new offensive.
This video reportedly shows the fighters, in a convoy, traveling to Al Qadam.
Ababil Houran entering Qadam on foot. Note the M79 carried by the soldier who hides his face:
Battle for Damascus, Harmala, Jobar, Syria Wednesday, February 6, 2013 at 12:24 | James Miller in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran Fighting in Daraa city on Tuesday
See also Syria Analysis: Someone is Arming the Insurgents...and It's Working
Mali (and Beyond) Live Coverage: France to Withdraw in March After Successful Military Operations?
Tuesday's Syria Live Coverage: Minister of Defense "We Cannot Be Broken"
2200 GMT: Intense Fight in Damascus. Today's fighting near Jobar in northeast Damascus was intense. At the height of the battle, incoming artillery and mortar shells lit large parts of the city on fire, however, it is unclear who was firing what. What we do know is that by nightfall there was still fighting in parts of Damascus, and the battle lines, at least for the moment, have changed considerably.
A Syrian microblogger has collected dozens of videos of the fighting in a post. This video reportedly shows the early stages of the battle for the the Harmala checkpoint:
="0" allowfullscreen>Wednesday, February 6, 2013 at 10:19 | James Miller in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran A Free Syrian Army member fires an RPG-22 on 12 January in Busr al Harir in Daraa Province
While foreign weapons have been seen in Syria, we have not encountered them on this scale. All this suggests a new, organised, and well-funded effort is under way to ensure that "moderate" fighters are capturing territory and weakening the Assad regime.
It is too early to tell whether there are enough weapons to make a long-term impact. None of them be used as an effective counter to Assad's primary threat, his fighter jets. However, if this is an experiment to see a surge in armament makes a difference, the answer is clear.
State outlet Press TV on the unveiling of Iran's new F-313 fighter jet
See also EA Video Analysis: The Lie About an Iran "Explosion" That Became Headline News
Iran Video Feature: The Regime's "Justified" Imprisonment of Journalists
Saturday's Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader's Men Launch Their Presidential Campaign
1950 GMT: The Defeat of Ahmadinejad. After today's showdown in Parliament, Speaker Ali Larijani and President Ahmadinejad have each cancelled press conferences called for tonight.
An audio of the clash between the two men has been posted on YouTube.
1850 GMT: The Defeat of Ahmadinejad. Some Western media have noticed today's dramatic events in Parliament, but they are struggling to get a handle on what happened.
Reuters has the fullest account but misses the humiliation of the President by the Speaker of Parliament --- and the impeachment of his Minister of Labor --- with the incomplete headline, "Iran President Accuses Parliament Speaker's Family of Corruption".
After giving a full description of the President's attempt to tag Larijani with corruption, via a claimed audio tape of the Speaker's brother, the article finally approaches the significant development:
"Our problem is that our president does not observe the basics of proper behavior," Larijani said. "Why did you discuss this issue here?"
Larijani continued: "Actually it's a good thing ... that you played this tape today, so that the people better understand your character."
The Washington Post focuses on the Minister of Labor's impeachment, giving only a brief description of the Ahmadinejad-Larijani exchange --- and missing the significance of it --- at the end of the article.
Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 11:01 | Scott Lucas in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran Claimed footage of the moment that a mortar strike killed three activists in the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta
See also Iraq (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Dozens Killed in Attack on Police Headquarters
Saturday's Syria Live Coverage: Aid Reaches an Opposition-Held Town
1926 GMT: Casualties. Claimed footage from the al-Ansari section of Aleppo of men digging for survivors in a collapsed building, reportedly struck by a by regime shelling:
See also Iran Audio Feature: Hype & Reality from Syria to "Explosion at Nuclear Plant" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Friday's Iran Live Coverage: Tehran Mayor --- Why We Are Engineering the Presidential Election
1622 GMT: Nuclear Snap Analysis. The headline from the Munich Security Conference is of a statement by US Vice President Joe Biden that Washington is ready for direct talks with Tehran and that it is past time for Tehran to negotiate seriously.
Biden's declaration has been complemented by a message from European Union foreign policy head Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle added that, despite the failure to resume high-level discussions, there was no reason for military action, a point echoed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Three pointss:
1. In the short-term, both Tehran and the US-European bloc are trying to lay blame for the inability to agree on talks on the other side.
2. Talks about talks will now be put on the back-burner while the Iranian regime concentrates on the Presidential election in June.
2. Most importantly, both sides are signalling that --- despite the effective suspension of diplomatic efforts --- they are ready to pick up the negotiations in the autumn.
Biden's statement follows the pointed message of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani on Monday that there are no "red lines" against direct talks with the Americans. What's more, Larijani invoked the name of the Supreme Leader in making that statement.
Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 9:36 | Scott Lucas in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran European officials visit Azaz on Friday
See also EA Video Analysis: Two Lessons from The Israeli Airstrikes Inside Syria
Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Beatings, Molotovs, & a Death in Clashes
Friday's Syria Live Coverage: Fighting in and Near Damascus
1729 GMT: Iran Visit. State media carries a claimed quote from Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, after his meeting today with President Assad: "We will give all our support so that Syria remains firm and able to face all the arrogant (Western) conspiracies/>[? >[?"The Israeli aggression and arrogant international forces have tried to take revenge by attacking the resisting Syrian people."
1708 GMT: Russia and the Opposition. Moaz al-Khatib, the head of the opposition National Coalition, says he has met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Al-Khatib said he had received a "clear invitation" to go to Moscow for talks: "Russia has a certain vision but we welcome negotiations to alleviate the crisis and there are lots of details that need to be discussed."
Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:01 | Scott Lucas in EA Live, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran Five minutes to take apart Wednesday's Israeli airstrikes inside and to draw two lessons:
1. "The less important is that the Israelis are not going to alter the course of the Syrian conflict --- that is between the Assad regime and the insurgents, and the President is still on his way out."
2. "The significance of the Israeli attack is its impact on the regional situation beyond Syria, and specifically on Lebanon."
