Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Back to the War of Attrition

See also Saudi Arabia Feature: A Precious Moment with the Religious Police
Bahrain Audio Feature: Why the Detention of Photojournalist Ahmed Humaidan Matters --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Deadly Car Bomb in Damascus

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1943 GMT: Syria. AFP opens its profile of elderly Christians sheltering near the front lines in Aleppo:

The aging Christians holed up inside a retirement home in the devastated northern Syrian city of Aleppo have no light, no telephone lines, and little idea of what is happening in the outside world.

But fellow Christians and rebel fighters still ensure they do not go hungry, bringing the dozen or so residents whatever food they can every day.

The St. Elie Rest Home, founded in 1863, is behind a black metal door on a street strewn with debris and rubbish a short way from the front line where rebels and regime forces face off against each other.

"We welcome everyone who has been abandoned or is in need," says Sister Marie, 75, the beaming Mother Superior.

"This is a place where life can be enjoyed," she adds, gesturing to the 20 rooms adjoining a cloister and courtyard with a fountain and greenery.

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Syria (and Beyond) Coverage: UN --- Death Toll Passes 60,000

People run from a regime airstrike on the Damascus suburb of Douma --- activists report that there were 20 deaths

See also Libya Satire: A Beginner's Guide to Democacy...and Slapstick
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Aleppo Airport Is Briefly Closed

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2044 GMT: Syria. An airstrike on the Jobar section of Homs today:

1726 GMT: Syria. Insurgents drive a captured regime in the Jabal al-Zawiya area:

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Iran Live Coverage: A Collapsing Economy?

See also Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad v. Everyone Else

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1710 GMT: Economy Watch. A new report by the Iranian Chamber of Commerce indicates that 5931 industrial units --- 67% of those surveyed --- have been shut.

1440 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Ebrahim Raissi, the Deputy Iran Prosecutor General, has promised that indictments in the case of Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, will be issued soon.

Hashemi, accused of financial and electoral fraud by his critics, was detained in September on his return from three years in exile in Britain. He was released on bail last month.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Aleppo Airport Is Briefly Closed

2050 GMT: Syria. There are various rumors that the Taftanaz military airport has been captured by rebel forces (map). We can't verify that the base has completely fallen, but many sources indicate that an intense campaign has been launched to capture the base.

A BMP firing into the airport:

A heavy gun mounted to a 4x4 truck firing on the airport:

A small convoy of heavy guns and equipment fire on the airport:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Regime Forces Try to Recapture Damascus Suburb

Footage from the Damascus suburb of Darayya last month

See also EA Special: 10 Predictions for 2013 --- Assad Gone, an Angry Middle East, and Little Change on "Human Rights"
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: On Verge of "Hell" or "Sacred Birth"?

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2035 GMT: Bahrain. Claimed footage of police throwing tear gas canister near a 4 year-old child in Jirdab village:

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EA Special: 10 Predictions for 2013 --- Assad Gone, an Angry Middle East, and Little Change on "Human Rights"

See also 2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

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1. Syria --- The Assad Regime Will Fall It remains unclear what happens once President Assad is gone, but his regime will crumble in 2013. It may find some corner of Lattakia or Tartous to claim as a new capital for some time, but this will not last.

Assad's presence in the east has been reduced to a single airbase near Deir Ez Zor. Insurgents, led by Islamists, are also moving into Raqqa Province, and Hassakah will soon be cut off. The regime's supply lines to Aleppo are completely cut, with insurgents picking off military bases outside the city.

Eventually, Aleppo will fall. Insurgents will march south from Idlib Province, first taking Hama, then Homs, and then on to Damascus. If the Assad regime survives and is not overtaken by a surge in the capital before this, then the regime will have its back against the wall. The majority of Syria will already be in someone else's hands.

But whose hands?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: On Verge of "Hell" or "Sacred Birth"?

See also Sunday's Syria Live Coverage: "220 Executed" as Regime Advances in Homs

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1935 GMT: Syria. Brown Moses considers a video, circulating since Saturday, claiming to be of a regime soldier executed by an Islamist brigade in Harem in Idlib Province.

Harem, just over a mile from the Turkish border, was captured by insurgents last week.

1930 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of insurgents blowing up a regime tank today:

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2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

The Question We Asked Last Year: A Reliable Prediction? --- Right to Left: Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Mubarak, Libya's Qaddafi, Yemen's Saleh, Syria's Assad, Iran's Khamenei

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On 1 January, I offered some predictions about the year ahead. How did they turn out?...

4. Speaking of Syria, things will get worse before they get better. The Arab League observers will produce a middling report, one that speaks of a crisis that needs fixing but will be slow to blame the highest levels of the Assad regime. International outcry will be loud. Eventually, someone will crack, and there will be intervention.

However, I would be shocked if this happened before April, and absolutely bewildered if it happened before March. The opposition is still, in the eyes of the world, not organised enough to serve as a skeleton upon which the international community can build a mission.

In the meantime, the protests will not go away, and more and more people will defect. Those defections, however, will not reach a tipping point for a long time for the regime, unless that international intervention happens.

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Syria Live Coverage: "220 Executed" as Regime Advances in Homs

Rally in Deir Baalba in Syria, November 2011

See also 2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?
Egypt Feature: Not All "Islamist" Movements Are the Same....
Iraq Video: Evaluating the Surge in Anti-Government Protests
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Brahimi's Mission is "Dead in the Water"

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1735 GMT: Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has told thousands of Syrian refugees that their country is preparing for a "sacred birth" replacing President Assad with the will of the people: "We can see very clearly that God's help is close. Don't forget victory comes to those who are patient."

Erdogan stood next to Moaz Al-Khatib, the head of the Syrian opposition National Coalition.

Refugee camps in Turkey host 150,000 Syrians who have fled the conflict.

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Iran Live Coverage: Cheerleading for Sanctions

Al Jazeera English reports on the effect of US sanctions on Iranian air travel

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2115 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly predicted that Syrian President Assad will leave or be forced from power.

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