The Latest from Iran (17 December): Seeking Influence on Syria

Iran Special Analysis: Breaking the Deadlock in the Nuclear Negotiations
The Latest from Iran (16 December): Is Tehran Ready for Concessions on Nuclear Programme?

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1551 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Turkish Front). NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has rejected the declaration by the head of Iran's armed forces, Hassan Firouzabadi, that the placement of NATO's Patriot anti-missiles sysems on Turkey's border with Syria risks a world war.

"I completely denounce these (Iranian) allegations. We have made clear right from the outset that the deployment of Patriots is a purely defensive measure," Rasmussen told a news conference after talks with Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo. "We are there to defend and protect our ally Turkey. We have no offensive intentions whatsoever."

On Saturday, Firouzabadi said, "Each one of these Patriots is a black mark on the world map, and is meant to cause a world war. They are making plans for a world war, and this is very dangerous for the future of humanity and for the future of Europe itself."

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Syria Live Coverage: Regime Warplanes Strike in Damascus for 1st Time

2104 GMT: A micro-blogger has collected a series of videos from the FSA offensive against Halfaya, north of Hama city (map). The city is under heavy rebel attack, as the Free Syrian Army and other units are stretching the front lines to the south. After weeks of ambushes, IED attacks, and generally picking at Assad's supply lines, it appears that the insurgents have moved into Hama province with a vengeance. If this kind of momentum can be sustained over the next few days, it could signal a further Assad military collapse, but this one just kilometers from one of the most important cities in Syria:

#Syria #Hama Rebels destroyed officers club & surround National Hospital in city of #Helfaia which is under occupation youtube.com/watch?v=dEMBOn…

— Mark (@markito0171) December 17, 2012

#Syria #Hama Rebels in #Helfaia seized T-72 tankyoutube.com/watch?v=3dWzKw… wikimapia.org/#lat=35.259858…

— Mark (@markito0171) December 17, 2012

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Syria Video Feature: Planning For the Endgame? --- Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Syria"

I appeared on Al Jazeera English's Inside Syria yesterday to discuss latest developments around the question, "Is this the endgame for President Assad?" The other panellists were Ammar Waqqaf of the pro-regime Syrian Social Club and Pavel Felgenhauer, a political analyst and columnist for Russia's Novaya Gazeta.

This was a spiky discussion at times, with differences over the level of the threat to President Assad, the situation of the opposition, and Russia's assessment of whether it should now distance itself from the Syrian regime.

Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Claim Another Victory Near Aleppo

See also Syria Video Feature: Planning For the Endgame? --- Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Syria"
Syria Feature: A Requiem for Aleppo
Saturday's Syria Live Coverage: "The Only Terrorism is That of Assad"

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2015 GMT: Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa has admitted in an interview that the regime will not be able to defeat the insurgency and restore its authority --- he said, "“The opposition forces combined cannot decide the battle militarily," but continued, "Meanwhile what the security forces and the army units are doing will not reach a conclusive end.”

A pessimistic al-Sharaa said, “With every passing day, the military and political solutions get further away. The way events are heading will lead to an uncomfortable place where things will definitely go from bad to worse.”

Al-Sharaa pointed to a "historical settlement...stopping all shapes of violence, and [with] the creation of a national unity government with wide powers":

The opposition with its different factions, civilian, armed, or ones with external ties, cannot claim to be the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian People, just as the current rule with its ideological army and its confrontation parties lead by the Baath, cannot achieve change without new partners.

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Syria Live Coverage: "The Only Terrorism is That of Assad"

Protest in Kafranbel on Friday

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1900 GMT: Activists claim that regime forces again tried to storm the Damascus suburb of Darayya today.

"This is the 28th day the criminal [President Bahsar] al-Assad forces have attempted to break into the town," a statement claimed. “Daraya remains isolated from the outside world due to a communications and power cut for the past 37 days. With ongoing fuel cuts, there is an urgent need for supplies to be restored as winter sets in."

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Syria Satire: A Beginner's Guide to the Islamist Insurgent Groups (Karl reMarks)

"Liwa’a  Al-Tawheed, or the Unity Brigades, is a splinter group. Irony isn’t their thing"

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Jabhat Al-Nusra: No doubt the jewel in the crown of all Jihadi groups. Except that they don’t approve of jewels. Or crowns. Or embellishments of any kind. Sometimes they are mistakenly referred to as Jabhat Al-Nusra Front, which literally means The Nusra Front Front. But that makes them sound ridiculous. And if there’s one group you don’t want to piss off it’s the Jabhat Al-Nusra. In fact, don’t piss any of them to be on the safe side.

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Syria Live Coverage: Protests, Bombs, and A Victory That "Cannot Be Ruled Out"

An insurgent in Aleppo tries to rescue a woman lying shot in the street

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1715 GMT: According to the Local Coordination Committees, 66 people have been killed so far across Syria:

35 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs (including 4 martyrs due to shelling in Hajar Aswad and 4 martyrs due to gunfire at funeral of yesterday's convoy in Barza), 11 in Idlib, 7 in Daraa, 5 in Homs, 3 in Hama, 3 in Aleppo and 2 in Deir Ezzor.

The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) is an activist network operating both inside and outside of Syria. They claim to use stringent verification processes to ensure that a member of the LCC can vouch for any information posted either on their Facebook page or their website. The LCC also populates a database of those killed in the Syrian conflict, which can be seen at the website for the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria.

The LCC's casualty figures are a mix of insurgents and civilians, and never include regime casualties. Syrian State Media has stopped reporting regime casualty figures.

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Syria Live Coverage: "Assad Forces Using Scud Missiles"

State TV footage from today's bomb in Qatana, which reportedly killed 16 people (see 1015 GMT)

See also Syria Analysis: Was There a "Massacre" in Aqrab on Tuesday?
Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Stumbling Towards a Referendum
Wednesday's Syria Live Coverage: Uncertainty Over the Mass Killing in Aqrab

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1556 GMT: The Local Coordination Committees claim that 81 people have been killed today, including 41 in Damascus and its suburbs.

1512 GMT: The Foreign Ministry has denied claims that the regime is using Scud missiles.

The Ministry claims the allegation is a conspiracy by "Turkey and its partners", with the aim of distorting Syria's image and position in the international community. It said that it is well-known that Scud missiles are strategic long-range missiles and are not used when facing "armed terrorist gangs".

However, AFP, citing a defected First Lieutenant, reinforces the claim that Scuds were fired on Monday.

First Lieutenant Aaraba Idriss said he is still in contact with officers and members of his former Battalion 57, part of Brigade 155. He said they had fired five Scud missiles from their location in Nasiriyeh on the highway between Damascus and the central Syrian city of Homs.

Idriss, who now heads the Hassan Battalion of the insurgent Free Syrian Army, said "the missiles were fired northwest at 10:45 (0845 GMT), 12:30, 13:50, 15:15 and 17:10" and may have struck in Aleppo Province or Idlib Province.

Idriss said the "Golan-1" missiles were either Russian-made or Russian-modified" and have a range of up to 300 kilometres (186 miles).

AFP writes that a soldier, who defected on Tuesday morning, corroborated the report.

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Syria Analysis: Was There a "Massacre" in Aqrab on Tuesday?

Boy Injured in Aqrab on Tuesday>There may have been a massacre in Aqrab. There may not have been. For now, we have rumours that were never sourced or qualified, assumptions that were made, and a story which --- on the basis of today's coverage --- could slip into being ignored.

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Syria Live Coverage: Uncertainty Over the Mass Killing in Aqrab

1946 GMT: Syrian Media, SANA, now reports that three different explosions resulted in "martyring of a number of people and the injuring of others" at the Interior Ministry in Damascus. SANA does not say whether any officials have been injured, though rumors are flying, rumors which State TV has already denied. They have posted several pictures, two of which we post here (click for full size):

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