Syria Snap Analysis: Kofi Annan - Lost on the Road to Damascus

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A UN Envoy in Damascus

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The Syrian National Council's Burhan Ghalioun has today condemned statements made by the UN's envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, suggesting that a political solution in Syria is possible, and desireable:

These kind of comments are disappointing and do not give a lot of hope for people in Syria being massacred every day. It feels like we are watching the same movie being repeated over and over again ...

Any political solution will not succeed if it is not accompanied by military pressure on the regime ...

As an international envoy, we hope he will have a mechanism for ending the violence ...My fear is that, like other international envoys before him, the aim is to waste a month or two of pointless mediation efforts.

These statements echo those made by the ranking members of the Free Syrian Army, other ranking members of the SNC, the various splinter groups, many of whom are even more hawkish than the SNC, every contact we have within the opposition, and nearly every single video that comes out of Syria.

Our assessment - We've been wondering if Kofi Annan is in the right country. Maybe he got lost on the road to Damascus, because from what we've seen, there is no chance of reconciliation between the regime and the opposition.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A UN Envoy in Damascus

A demonstration in Daal in southern Syria on Thursday night

See also Syria Snap Analysis: Kofi Annan - Lost on the Road to Damascus
Palestine Opinion: Have Hunger Strikers "Reinvigorated Resistance"?
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Pretty Devastated" Section of Homs
Turkey Live Coverage (8 March): Erdogan's Kurdish Problem

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2130 GMT: It's been another bloody day in Syria. The LCCS now reports that 82 have died at the hands of security forces, "33 martyrs in Idlib including 25 martyrs who were killed in Ain Larouz massacre , 26 martyrs in Homs,7 martyrs in Yabroud in Damascus Suburbs 6 martyrs in Daraa, 4 martyrs in Hama, two martyrs in Damascus 2 martyrs in Lattakia and one martyr in each of Bokamal and Aleppo/"

However, there are reports that the gunfire in Hama and the shelling in Al Rastan, north of Homs, have continued into the night. After another day of defiant protests in the face of violence, there will be yet another bloody night in Syria.

We'll end the day where we started. Kofi Annan said that a political solution was the only viable way to end this conflict. I made the assessment that such a solution was not possible because the opposition leaders refuse to consider it, the opposition in the street refuses to consider it, and too much blood has already been spilled.

82 dead Syrians seems like a lot, but it's now a fairly typical day. That's 82 people who had families, friends, and maybe coworkers, 82 people who have lost a loved one at the hands of the regime. And this story has had a constant narrative from the start - every life lossed is just strengthening the resolve of the opposition, and the chants in the street aren't getting any quieter.

"The people want the fall of the regime. The people want the execution of the President. We bow to no one but Allah."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Pretty Devastated" Section of Homs

2009 GMT: The UN/Arab League special envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, has said that a political process, not a military one, is the only way to end the crisis in the country:

"I hope that no one is thinking very seriously of using force in this situation. I believe any further militarization will make this situation worse. We have to be careful that we don't introduce a medicine that's worse than the disease, and we don't have to go very far in the region to find an example of what I'm talking about," said Annan.

Compare these statements to those made by a high-ranking commander in the Free Syrian Army, Colonel Riad al-Asaad, made earlier today:

"The Syrian people will not accept any form of dialogue with this criminal regime. The Syrian people want to bring this regime down and will never give it another chance."

1916 GMT: The shelling today in Al Rastan, Homs, might have been more intense than the initial reports suggested. Activists post this video, showing heavy damage in a single neighborhood:

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Turkey Live Coverage (7 March): Erdogan Wants A Solution to Syria

2140 GMT: The Interior Ministry's confidential report on the Uludere massacre reached to the parliament. BDP's MP Ertigril Kurkcu said that the video images of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles per se do not let to an air strike, according to the findings of the report. 

CHP's Malik Ecder Ozdemir also stated that the special report found out that no local senior military officials knew about the air strike. Therefore, the report wants a broader investigation.

1930 GMT: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met privately with his Iranian and Azerbaijani counterparts, Ali Akbar Salehi and Elmar Mammadyarov repectively, in Nakhichevan. In these meetings, it is reported that Davutoglu and Mammadyarov talked about the current political situation in South Caucasus and Azeribaijan-NATO relations since this country is in NATO's Partnership for Peace program. On the other hand, Davutoglu and Salehi reportedly talked about Iran's prospective talks with P5+1 countries (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) and Turkey's strong willingness to host a possible meeting in Istanbul.

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Syria Feature: Obama Administration Quietly Backs Arms to Insurgents?

We have assessed, based on weeks of reports, that foreign governments and groups have been sending supplies --- including communications equipment, night-vision goggles, and bullet-proof vests --- to Syrian insurgents. We also suspect, though we cannot establish, that foreign actors are ensuring small arms get to the Free Syrian Army.

Now Josh Rogin, writing for The Cable blog of Foreign Policy magazine, gives an indication that the Obama Administration has been or is on he verge of supporting these efforts:

The Obama administration is moving to provide direct assistance to the internal opposition in Syria for the first time, marking a shift in U.S. policy toward a more aggressive plan to help oust President Bashar al-Assad.

Last week, a group of senior Obama administration officials met to finalize a package of options for aiding both the internal and external Syrian opposition, to include providing direct humanitarian and communications assistance to the Syrian opposition,

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Assad "We Will Crush Foreign-Backed Terrorism"

2156 GMT: A contact in Bahrain forwards us this poster, a planned opposition strike on March 15 to commemorate the anniversary of one of the bloodiest days of the revolution last year in Sitra village:

2145 GMT: We've been hearing rumors of clashes, possibly between the Free Syrian Army and Assad military, in and around Saqba. Earlier this hour (update 2100 GMT), the LCCS posted video which they said showed the gunfire. Now, the activist network ANA reports a large explosion and heavy gunfire in the Hamoraya district, north of Saqba (map).

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Aid Delivered, but No Relief for Homs

2055 GMT: This may look like fireworks on a black screen, but it was posted by the LCCS who say that it was taken tonight in Qorieh, Deir Ez Zor. According to multiple sources, there is heavy fighting in the area, and we've been hearing unconfirmed reports that the battles between the Free Syrian Army and the Assad forces stretch as far north as Deir Ez Zor.

2037 GMT: The US Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, has posted more declassified satellite photos showing the extent of the crisis in Syria:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: At Least 58 Dead on Sunday

2227 GMT: While we continue to look for more details on the explosion in Barzeh, it is worth noting how important the Barzeh district is. While we only know the general area of the explosion, it is only a little over a mile away from Tishreen Palace, the home of the President, and is within short distance of many other important buildings in Damascus.

2150 GMT: The explosion appears to have happened somewhere in the Barzeh district of Damascus, but as you can see from the reports below, the area where the explosion occurred is extremely large:

View Syria - 2012 March 5 - EA Worldview in a larger map

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Turkey Live Coverage (5 March): A Bridging Role on Syria and Iran

2100 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin over his election victory. In return, Putin reportedly underlined the importance of bilateral relations and promised to advance ties.

2020 GMT: After the French Constitutional Council's ruling out the genocie-denial bill (which was to punish people who denied the "Armenian genocide"in the Ottoman era) as it was "unconstitutional", deputy minister Bulent Arinc welcomed this development but said that Ankara would keep its political, economic and military sanctions on Paris since French President Nicolas Sarkozy had already asked his government to have a new draft of the original bill. 

2000 GMT: Turkish Foreign Ministry says the trilateral meeting between foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan will be held in Nakhcevan on 7 March. It is stated that the first meeting that took place in Urmia, Iran on 16 April 2011 were useful in developing the understanding of cooperation and consolidating regional stability and security. 

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Syria 1st-Hand: With the Insurgents in Idlib Province (Los Angeles Times)

A unit in Idlib Province of the insurgent Free Syrian Army issues a statement, 14 February 2012

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Despite the urgency of their armed resistance and the rising death toll across the country, rebels here aren't rushing into battle against an army with far superior weapons and organization. Rather, they bide their time, staging guerrilla attacks and planning for the insurgency they want to fight, not the one they are equipped for now.

Rebels hope they'll soon see an influx of cash for weapons from the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both now openly dedicated to Assad's overthrow.

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