Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New Opposition Leadership?

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See also EA Audio: James Miller on Opposition Leadership & Failure of Ceasefires
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Steps Up Airstrikes

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1821 GMT: Syria. An emotional appeal from an online activist:

Video:When these rockets landed, many souls ascended to Heavens, God willing. A MiG throwing rockets onto Ghoutayoutube.com/watch?v=XLgs7i… #Syria

— ☪†Damascus Tribune†☪ (@DamascusTribune) November 1, 2012

Closer analysis offers an interesting detail among the tragedy. To be clear, a bomb does appear to fall, causing a massive explosion below. This appears to be East Ghouta, and those appear to be residences, so many may have died.

But those "rockets" are not rockets at all - they are flares, used to avoid surface-to-air missiles. Once again, we have evidence that the Syrian air force has permanently changed their behavior and is routinely guarding against these SAM missiles which have fallen into FSA hands in the capture of many area bases.

An analyst we spoke to over a month ago suggested that most pilots would never fire these countermeasures unless they had a radar alert that they had either been locked onto or fired at. Otherwise, the pilot may run out of flares before needing them. Is the FSA actively hunting regime jets east of Damascus?

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Syria Feature: Obama Administration Seeks a New Opposition Council (Rogin)

Opposition figure Riad SeifSyrian opposition leaders of all stripes will convene in Qatar next week to form a new leadership body to subsume the opposition Syrian National Council, which is widely viewed as ineffective, consumed by infighting, and little respected on the ground.

The State Department has been heavily involved in crafting the new council as part of its effort oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and build a more viable and unified opposition. In September, for instance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with a group of Syrian activists who were flown in to New York for a high-level meeting that has not been reported until now.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Unavoidable Change on the Ground

See also Saturday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 10,000s March Outside Manama

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2128 GMT: Yemen. At least eight people have been killed by a US drone strike on two vehicles in Radaa in the centre of the country.

"Five were killed and eight injured and we are still investigating who these men are and in what way they were linked to al Qaeda," one official said.

Three women were also killed in the strike, a local tribal chief claimed. He said that the strike had targeted Abdulraouf al-Dahab, a local al-Qaeda leader, but that it failed to kill him.

Some tribesmen and military officials said that no fighters had been killed in the air strike, in which 14 civilians, including three women and three children, died. The officials said Sunday's airstrikes were based on faulty intelligence that the passengers were al-Qaeda members.

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Syria Opinion: To Stop the Regime, Arm the Insurgents (Hassan)

As the bloodshed continues, the question remains of what could be done to end it. The situation is becoming increasingly more complex, yet has reached a point where the conclusion --- the end of the regime --- is clear: the Free Syrian Army is becoming stronger, the regime is weakening rapidly (with its military reduced to acting essentially as death squads), and the fighting will continue until the regime falls.

What is needed is to speed up that process by providing maximum assistance to the rebels.

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Turkey Opinion: Ankara's Uncertain Strategy in the Middle East (Stein)

Defected Syrian General Manaf Tlass & Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu, 26 July 2012The Arab uprisings have complicated Turkey’s approach to the Middle East. Both long before and after the dynamic events of the last 18 months began, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s AKP was looked at as a model to emulate by many in the Middle East and the non-Arab world. Buoyed by strong poll numbers, a growing economy, and a record of democratic reform, there was a consensus that Erdogan himself would be the face of a new democratic Middle East. For now, the prime minister seems to enjoy playing the role of regional demagogue promising great things and standing up to Israel. But can it last? Or will fundamental antagonisms lead to tension between Turkey and the region in the future?

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Syria Feature: US Promoting General Tlass as "Transitional Leader"? (Solomon/Dagher)

Manaf TlassThe Obama administration and officials of some Arab and Western nations are discussing ways to place Syria's highest-ranking military defector at the center of a political transition in the Arab state, according to U.S. and Middle East officials.

The focus on Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a childhood friend of President Bashar al-Assad, is increasing as hopes fade for prospects that an umbrella resistance group, the Syrian National Council, can galvanize the opposition, the officials said.

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Syria Analysis: Turkey Adjusts Its Strategy Amid Kurdish and Russian Complications

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu meets members of the opposition Syrian National Council on Monday

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Ankara is now heavily investing its political, economic, logistical, and public-relations capacity in the effort to boost the opposition agains the regime. In return, Turkey wants a guarantee that there will be no autonomous region in the new Syria.

That seems a logical strategy, but how it will work in practice ---- given that Kurds hold a significant amount of bargaining power for "democratic autonomy" --- is unclear. Given that the Syrian Kurds are already pursuing and obtaining self-governance in some areas as they fight regime forces, how can they be ignored in the transitional period? 

A conclusion? Ankara must face reality and talk to Syrian Kurds if it wants to finish Assad as soon as possible. 

But then another queston: how does Turkey talks to its own Kurds in these circumstances?

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Syria Revealed: The Quiet Planning for a Country After Assad

Steven Heydemann, involving in planning with Syrian opposition groups, on the US Public Broadcasting Service this week

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For the last six months, 40 senior representatives of various Syrian opposition groups have been meeting quietly in Germany under the tutelage of the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP) to plan for how to set up a post-Assad Syrian government.

The project, which has not directly involved U.S. government officials but was partially funded by the State Department, is gaining increased relevance this month as the violence in Syria spirals out of control and hopes for a peaceful transition of power fade away. The leader of the project, USIP's Steven Heydemann, an academic expert on Syria, has briefed administration officials on the plan, as well as foreign officials, including on the sidelines of the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul last month.

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Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan

Prime Minister ErdoganThe Erdogan government will try to rely on a "security-first" agenda to challenge both the opposition parties and the PKK, at the same time promoting its synthesis of nationalism and Islam.

However, Ankara now has to review its calculation that playing the game with more players and more cards would turn the situation to its advantage. Both Iraqi Kurdish leader Barzani's involvement and the changing Syrian situation pose a question: what will Erdogan do if an autonomous Kurdish region is declared not only in Syria but in southeastern Turkey?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Inaction is a "Licence for Further Massacres"

Protesters in Yarmouk Refugee Camp in Damascus tear down a poster of President Assad --- 13 refugees reportedly were slain on Friday by Syrian security forces

See also Bahrain Opinion: The Regime's Propaganda Machine is Cranked Up to Eleven
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New "Massacre"?

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2039 GMT: Syria. Journalist Martin Chulov adds this important note to his published article on the mass killing in Tremseh (see 2009 GMT):

Spoke to 2 #Tremseh residents present during massacre. They said some attacking soldiers tried to defect & were executed #Syria

— Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) July 14, 2012

2009 GMT: Syria. A far different account by Martin Chulov of The Guardian than that in The New York Times (see 1905 GMT) about Thursday's mass killing in Tremseh....

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