2000 GMT:Syria. The violence is usually the headline. The story is usually about the regime dropping bombs, or battles between the military and the insurgents, or the worsening humanitarian crisis, or the international response to the death. But an activist reminds us that, though they've been largely pushed to the shadows because of all the violence, there are still protests, even in the center of Damascus:
Despite all the battles! RT @lccsy: مظاهرة مسائية في كفرسوسة بدمشقEvening Demonstration in Kafar Souseh, #Damascus... fb.me/1G9jAHIKh
2340 GMT:Syria. Since this morning, a rumor, pushed initially by Russian media RT, spread that a high ranking Syrian general had died in a Russian hospital. Syrian State Media denied the story, and there have been debates and rumors all day as to the identity of the dead general.
Now, an activist who has a great rack record lately posts this report:
BREAKING | The high ranking military person who died in a Moscow hospital is of Jamil Hassan, Head of Air Force Intelligence Directorate.
We have to stress that this rumor is completely unconfirmed.
2320 GMT:Syria. A note on our last update - Bashar Fahmi, one of the missing journalists, apparently works for Alhurra, described as "a United States-based Arabic-language satellite TV channel funded by the U.S. Congress that broadcasts news and current affairs."
More information on what happened today (noted, this is still unconfirmed):
1920 GMT: Religion Watch. International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani, accused of apostasy because of his conversion to Christianity, will face a new trial on 27 August on charges of “banditry and extortion".
An Iranian court has condemned Nadarkhani to death for apostasy but has offered to commute the sentence if he repents. So far he has refused to do so.
1745 GMT: Currency Watch. With the Iranian Rial losing almost half its value since last autumn, The New York Times reports on Iranians crossing the border to get better rates or to trade before the currency slides farther:
Afghan traders have proved more than willing to trade dollars for rials, usable as a currency in many parts of western Afghanistan, at advantageous exchange rates.
Hajji Najeeb Ullah Akhtary, the president of Afghanistan’s Money Exchange Union, an association of traditional money transfer and exchange businesses that are known as hawalas, said he and his members had seen a steady increase in Iranians bringing cash into Afghanistan over the past year. That comes on top of routine transfers made by Afghans living and working in Iran, including more than one million impoverished refugees, and the regular supply of rials that circulates in Afghanistan.
The cash “comes across in trucks,” he said, with transfers arranged by Afghan middlemen who take a 5 to 7 percent commission.
Insurgents in Talbiseh, north of Homs, take control of a captured T-62 tank
2207 GMT:Syria. Today has been one of the bloodiest days in weeks, according to the Local Coordinating Committees. They report that 205 people have been killed today by Assad forces:
90 martyrs were reported in Aleppo (most in Izzaz), 42 in Damascus and its Suburbs (including 6 who were executed in Douma, 6 in Qaboun neighborhood and 11 who were executed in Razi Orchids), 26 martyrs in Idlib, 29 in Homs (among them 6 martyrs from one family in Deir Baalbeh neighborhood), 7 in Daraa, 8 in Deir Ezzor, 2 in Hama and 1 in Quneitra.
This death toll includes insurgents and civilians, but does not include regime security forces or "shabiha," pro-Assad paramilitary militia. Syrian State media has long since stopped recording the regime's own deathtoll.
What is striking may be the high death toll from Azaz, which was hit by massive air raids earlier today, butthe deaths were widespread, with four provinces reporting deaths in double digits.
For the uninitiated, a "MANPAD" is a "Man-portable air-defense system" --- a weapon system capable of knocking helicopters and planes, possibly even Assad jet fighters, out of the sky. There has been another video of such a weapon in FSA possession, but that was an isolated case in Homs. This video claims to show a weapons depot in Dumair (map), a location east of Damascus where the Free Syrian Army is strong and is growing stronger. The capital city is most vulnerable from the east, and the southwest, so a weapons cache this large, especially one containing this kind of ordinance, could pose a significant threat.
The anti-aircraft guns are also valuable to the FSA. A lesser weapon was apparently responsible for shooting a MIG 23 out of the sky in Deir Ez Zor, so these weapons have proven to be effective. These guns would be even more effective at destroying the feared helicopters that Assad's military has so effectively used against FSA positions in the last several weeks. But these guns can also be used against ground targets, and even light armour.
Beyond this, the fact that the Free Syrian Army is capturing more and more ordnance from regime bases and arms depots is another sign that the FSA is growing stronger, and in many areas has the upper hand. Even if one MANPAD, 4 AA guns, many RPGs, dozens of small arms, and thousands of rounds of ammunition is not enough to fuel a whole war, it is enough to help resupply an insurgent fighting force whose largest limitation may be logistics. It is also enough to serve as a morale boost for the FSA, and serve the opposite purpose for the Assad military.
Maya Neyestani's announcer for State news agency IRIB declares, "Important news: The West's new scenario -- creating instability along Syria's borders. The death of one person from poverty in France. Zionists concerned by the meeting of...." Meanwhile, in the corner, a dead child and wailing mother in "Azerbaijan", the province hit by Saturday's earthquakes.
1935 GMT: Oil Watch. Turkish imports of Iranian oil fell more than 36% between June and July, from about 110,000 barrels per day to around 70,000 barrels per day.
Only two 150,000-tonne cargoes of Iranian crude were discharged at one of Turkey's two import terminals, Tütünçiftlik.
The July volume is only 40% of Turkey's 2011 average of 180,000 bpd and a drop of up to 75% from 250,000-280,000 bpd imported in early 2012.
56 were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs; 17 in Homs; 14 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor (6 of them were martyred yesterday and their bodies were discovered today); 3 in Idlib; 2 in Hama; and 1 in Lattakia.
That number does not differentiate between civilians and insurgents, and does not include regime casualties. Syrian State media has also stopped reporting number of security forces killed in this conflict.
1900 GMT:Syria. This afternoon there are reports of unusually high levels of regime shelling in Daraa province. So far, there are reliable reports from Busra al Sham to the east of Daraa, (map), Al Harak to the north east (map), Tafas to the north (map, see update below), and perhaps most interesting
Ghabagheb, between Daraa and Damascus (map). Furthermore, the LCC reports extremely intense shelling in Darayya, a town southwest of Damascus on the road to Daraa (map). As is probably obvious from looking at these locations, nearly the entire road from Daraa to Darayya is reportedly being shelled. As we see from the reports from Tafas (below), that may not be a coincidence, but may be a response to the Free Syrian Army being increasingly active.
A Turkish Convoy Moving Towards the Syrian BorderKurdish complications have arise as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hoped to highlight Washington's co-operation with Turkey as the new way forward in dealing with the Syrian regime. As she announced a joint working group with the Turks, Clinton to “hasten the end of the bloodshed and to help the Syrian people build the kind of democratic, pluralistic society and government", she underlined American support against the “terrorist PKK”.
The juxtaposition of the developments brings us all the way around, not to Syria but to the Kurdish situation inside Turkey --- is any sign that Ankara can defuse the issue to give itself space for action beyond its borders?
The LCC reports that of 45 slain in Damascus and its suburbs, many were members of the Free Syrian Army in the area of Kisweh.
2015 GMT:Syria. A tribute by Syrian TV to Yara Salem, one of three journalists of the pro-regime Al-Ikhbariya channel who were abducted near Damascus last week:
Something quite curious --- and possibly significant --- happened last night. The Iranian leadership, having pursued the crushing of dissent within the Islamic Republic, having given full backing to the Assad's regime campaign to stamp out resistance, suddenly recognised the legitimacy of Syrian opposition.
What is the explanation? There are four possibilities, which are not mutually exclusive....
Cartoon: Nikahang KowsarIran, unsettled by the increasing difficulties for the Syrian regime, is trying to buttress its position in a post-Assad future. If there is to be a "transitional government" in Damascus, or even prolonged uncertainty and conflict, then Iran cannot afford an erosion of its position in neighbouring countries. So ties with Lebanon will be reinforced, if possible, and relations with Turkey will not be allowed to collapse into a real fight beyond the rhetorical bluster.
Saturday, August 25, 2012 at 12:57 | 
