Israel Analysis: Lieberman's Triple Attack on Turkey, Palestine, & His Own Prime Minister

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman launched a multi-front attack, bombarding Turkey, the Palestinian Authority...and his own Prime Minister.

Talking to Israeli diplomats, Lieberman pressed his belief that the "Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity", saying that they "would find a reason not to sign a peace agreement even if the Israelis had offered Tel Aviv and a retreat to 1947 borders". He called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempt to achieve a peace agreement "unrealistic" and said the Palestinian Authority, recognized by West Jerusalem since 1994, was an "illegitimate government that doesn't conduct elections".

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The Turkey-Israel-US Triangle: Obama Boosts Erdogan's Credibility

On Sunday, following a conversation with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Obama conducted an e-mail interview with the Turkish daily Hurriyet. 

Obama said that he and Erdogan had “reaffirmed the strong state of U.S.-Turkish relations” despite some differences “from time to time.” He continued:

Our partnership is resilient, and we agreed that the irresponsible acts of WikiLeaks do not threaten it. Given the increasingly complex challenges the world faces, I believe that U.S.-Turkish cooperation is more important now than ever.

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Turkey-Israel Analysis: Ankara's "Win-Win" Strategy Does Not Bring Reconciliation...Yet

This is the pursuit of Turkey's "strategic depth", developed by Foreign Minister Davutoglu, through "strategic parts", in this case, a method to solve problems --- eventually --- while maintaining stature after the red alert in relations with West Jerusalem.

But tension cannot be sustained forever. So who gives first? Israel's Netanyahu government or the Erdogan camp in Turkey?

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"Pro-Freedom" in Turkey: Police Violence, Egg-Throwing, and the PM's "Political Trap"

Despite the injuries to protesters, police have been praised once again by their Prime Minister. They can be proud of what happened on Sunday, amidst the Government's declarations of "more democracy and a more pro-freedom standard".

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Turkey-Israel Snap Analysis: Talks Continue in Geneva, Sides Close to Agreement

Turkish diplomatic sources say that Israel and Turkey are close to agreeing on a document that will include Israel's apology and compensation for the nine Turkish citizens killed in the May attack on the Freedom Flotilla.

Questions remain. For instance, if Israel offers a clear and simple apology, will there be legal consequences? Will Turkey's immediate political gains crumble when it becomes clear that its other demands have been flatly rejected by West Jerusalem? To sweep away recent tensions and current suspicions over regional manoeuvres by both sides, will a letter of apology be enough?

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Wikileaks and Iraq: Comparing the Threats from Saudi Arabia and Iran

What is notable here is the divergence between the analysis of the Saudi and Iranian threats to Iraq and the recommendations for the way forward.

Proposed US action on the Saudis is limited to "keeping up the pressure on Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular to return their Ambassadors [to Baghdad]" and general invocation to "caution Iraq's Arab neighbors against efforts to inflame Shia-Sunni anxieties through their support for Sunni parties and by Shia-critical media attacks".

In contrast, Tehran retains its special place as Number One Adversary, its presence used to link Iraq with others in the area in an American partnership: "We will need to flesh out ideas for a post-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] security architecture that includes Iraq more fully, develops ways to contain Iranian regional influence, and shapes the special position Iraq will likely occupy in the Gulf in ways that further our interests and those of our Gulf partners."

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Turkey Special: FM Davutoglu Sets Out Ankara's Foreign Policy in the "Normalisation of History"

Last week, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was in the US for discussions with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Davutoglu also delivered a speech at Georgetown University about Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" strategy.

In regional politics, within the contexts of the Middle East, Asia, Russia, the European Union, and the fight against terror, Washington needs Turks as much as Ankara needs Washington. This, Davutoglu underlined, is the significance of the "model partnership" set out by President Obama in his address to the Turkish Parliament in April 2009.

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Turkey, WikiLeaks, and Fire-Fighting: Ankara's Challenge to Israel

So why give fire-fighting assistance to Israel while claiming West Jerusalem is behind the WikiLeaks releases to tarnish Turkey? Erdogan's government wanted to boost its credibility in the eyes of the Turkish public, where there are critical views of the "anti-Israeli" standing of the ruling party. Secondly, Erdogan was trying to get an IOU of gratitude. Finally, Ankara found a way to reiterate its demands, boosting its autonomy in the region while Israel becomes bogged down.

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US-Turkey Video & Transcript: Foreign Minister Davutoglu Visits Hillary Clinton

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu pays a visit to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday. No details here --- the meeting was overshadowed by the WikiLeaks affair, which took over Clinton's later statement (see separate entry). However, both officials were keen to show that the leak of the documents, in which US officials said some less than flattering things about Davutoglu.

And not hard to guess that talks with Iran, which begin on 5 December and in which Turkey is playing a key role as broker, were high on the agenda....

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New WikiLeaks On Turkey: Snubbing the Opposition, Suspecting the Military, Warning about Iran

The Main Opposition: "No More than a Bunch of Elitist Ankle-Biters"

The cable, sent 30 December 2004 and titled “Erdoğan and the AK Party after Two Years in Power: Trying to Get a Grip on Themselves, on Turkey, on Europe,” reports not only about the Justice and Development Party (AKP) but also about the main opposition party (CHP). The CHP is called “no more than a bunch of elitist ankle-biters” and claimed as one of the reasons why there is no serious alternative to Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Eric Edelman, then the US ambassador to Turkey, adds: “The AKP’s lack of cohesion as a party and lack of openness as a government is reflected in the range of murky, muddled motives for wanting to join the EU we have encountered among those AKPers who say they favor pursuing membership...or at least the process.”

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