The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.

Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: "It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments." it added in an address to the country's regime.

2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran's economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.

One news item catches the eye, however:

A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country's Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.

NEW Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
Iran Discussion: How Would Ahmadinejad Fall? (And What Would Come Next?)
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (23 January): Looking for Clues

"Deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries," Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].

The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.

1745 GMT: Your Economic Update. Reuters has a useful English-language summary of President Ahmadinejad's budget presentation to the Iranian Parliament today. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has extended the deadline on the validity of banknotes marked with Green slogans, effectively allowing their circulation for the indefinite future. And Persian2English carries claims of difficulties with banks in Isfahan.

1535 GMT: Ayande News keeps up its recent jabbing at the Government and regime, asking why the Supreme Leader has SL dedicated 21 speeches to post-election events if this is not a crisis.

1530 GMT: Rezaei's Latest Manoeuvre. A valued EA correspondent reports on the latest speech by Presidential candidate (and possible Ahmadinejad opponent) Mohsen Rezaei, given to students in Gilan.

Rezaei, as his recent Press TV interview, maintained his distance from the opposition by emphasising that he made his complaints about the Presidential election within the law. At the same time he complained, "We still don’t know how to face the opposition group," and noted, "In some other countries, police keeps the opposition safe rather than attacking them." Rezaei also repeated his criticism of the "very weak" Ahmadinejad Government.

And a curious post-script: news of Rezaei's speech was on Tabnak, the website linked to him, but was removed after a few minutes.

1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I'm going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

1510 GMT: Bank Issues. Peyke Iran supports Internet chatter with the story that shots have been fired at Bank Melli in the city of Ram Hormuz in southwestern Iran.

1340 GMT: The State of the Detainees. Fereshteh Ghazi has published a lengthy and wide-ranging article on those arrested after the election, including the detentions of family members of activists, the lack of information on Ashura and post-Ashura detainees for families and lawyers , and the health of prisoners such as former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi.

1210 GMT: Monica Luisa Macovei, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, has publicly declared in the Parliament, "I have decided to use most of my time for this intervention to highlight the names of people who, reportedly, are in detention in Iran, some convicted to death, for criticising the political regime or for defending civil rights."

Macovei mentioned the cases of five Ashura detainees charged with "mohareb" (war against God), the 33 Mothers of Mourning and supporters recently detained (almost all have been released), arrested members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, and other students who have been imprisoned. She asked, "What is the Commission or the Council going to do for the release of those imprisoned for political purposes? What funding does the Commission provide to human rights NGOs working on Iran?"

1150 GMT: The Standard Warning. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has again warned of those seeking to create divisions within Iranian society, announcing that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance will be more vigilant in monitoring and punishing publications over false information.

1140 GMT: Blowing Smoke. Unsurprising, given the political and economic contests around him, that President Ahmadinejad would put out this line today: he will have good news within days about Iran being able to produce enriched uranium of 20 percent (versus current levels of 3-4 percent), and this will make all in the Iranian nation very happy.

1025 GMT: For My Next Trick. It will be interesting to see if President Ahmadinejad can pull this off: amidst fears of inflation, he has proposed a rise of almost 25 percent in the Government budget, from $279 billion to $368 billion.

0910 GMT: We've posted a Sunday Special which we hope brings both news and a smile, "Iran and Israel: The Start of A Beautiful Friendship?".

0840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Budget. The President has presented his budget proposals to Iran's Parliament, the Majlis. He summarised, "Emphasizing a reduction of dependence on oil revenues and an increase of non-oil revenues, with a focus on industry, agriculture and housing —these are among the main attributes of the bill," before making his pitch, "I hope that the bill will be passed with the cooperation of all lawmakers who solve the problems of the country and pave the way for the development of Islamic Iran."

Now the fun and bargaining begin, as lawmakers have ten days to present comments about the bill to the technical commissions of the Majlis.

0820 GMT: Choose a Side, Rafsanjani? Hashemi Rafsanjani's general statement on Saturday, which we analysed in our updates, has not been enough to satisfy some who want him to "choose sides" in the conflict.

The bigger news, however, however, is that the battle may not be over whether Rafsanjani backs the Supreme Leader --- the former President offered allegiance yesterday, albeit with coded reservations --- but whether he is for or against President Ahmadinejad. And there it appears that Rafsanjani has some potential allies pushing him towards the latter position.

For example, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has renewed its attacks on Rafsanjani with a Sunday editorial. What is just as significant, however, is that the news of those attacks is published in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, possibly to blunt them.

Khabar, reporting from Mehr News, also features a speech by Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the Judiciary and the brother of Ali (Speaker of Parliament) and Sadegh (head of Judiciary), praising Rafsanjani as a "great personality" but noting his three mistakes: 1) founding the Kargozaran party in the mid-1990s; 2) running for elections in 2005; 3) making ambiguous statements about Ahmadinejad during those elections.

Analysis? Come off the fence, Hashemi, and do so in support of others, not at the head of the movement.

0815 GMT: Persian2English has published a set of pictures from the "birthday ceremony" at Neda Agha Soltan's grave yesterday.

0810 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran reports that Mehdi Jalil-Khani, a writer, literary critic, and journalist from Zanjan, was arrested last week after a Ministry of Intelligence raid.

0805 GMT: We're be looking for further development on both the political and economic fronts today, separating facts from rumours as the pressure seems to build on President Ahmadinejad.

We have a special analysis which offers some caution, as an EA correspondent asks, "Should The Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?"

Comments

[Peace Maker]

Prof Lucas,

At the end of the article in Kalameh , Davoud Ahmadinejad praises and venerates SL and
sends him a message ( if I read well) , saying that he is an extraordinary person who can walk the meandered path of the prophets and by better understanding the obstacles he can overcome them .... and reach Iran's grand goal ... ♫ ♪♫

Maybe , to avoid the Mega-Fire , Ahmadinejad's clan have decided to burn Mashaei ?

[Scott Lucas]

Peace Maker,

Thank you --- that is one possibility. Will be watching carefully....

S.

[Rev. Magdalen]

About Mashai, my recollection is that the main thing conservatives have always had against him is that he is too friendly to Israel, so this accusation just seems like a more extreme and outspoken statement of what conservatives have long suspected. The mystery is why AN's brother would join the bandwagon against him.

Maybe there is a group of true believers who actually do think that Mashai has always been an Israeli agent, just simply because it's the nature of this type of regime to spawn paranoid conspiracies of that type, and Davoud simply got sucked into one of them.

Maybe the relationship between AN and Mashai is seen by some as "too close," as the whole Freudian slip Peach thing hints at, and Davoud is ashamed of his brother's unusually intimate relationship with Mashai, whether or not anything "unseemly" actually goes on between them.

Maybe the Ahmadinejad family really is from Jewish roots and married into Seyyeds and moved to Tehran and made a big effort to hide all that, so Davoud sees AN's relationship with an Israel-friendly aide as being a threat to the family's not-Jewish image.

Maybe Mashai and AN are connected through the Hojjetiah, but Davoud isn't a believer in that group's ideology and resents it for having sucked in his brother, so lashes out in an "approved" way (blaming Zionists) because it's too dangerous to openly denounce Hojjetiah.

Maybe AN stole Davoud's girl back in 8th grade and this is his way of getting even. Just because people are siblings doesn't always mean they're allies. Sometimes it's the siblings who have the most motive of all to bring someone down.

Those are all the explanations I can think of. I hope history finds out the truth someday!

As for the Persian/Iranian/Arab racism issue, I hope Iranians know that Westerners don't mean to be racist when we say Persians instead of Iranians, it's just that the country was called Persia before, so we're familiar with that term, and that's also the English name for the language that people speak in Iran, so to a lot of people if you speak Persian that makes you a Persian. Very few Westerners are aware of the different ethnic groups within Iran and that some might be offended by people using the word Persian to cover all Iranians, so I apologize for the times I know I've done that, and I hope people will forgive our ignorant mistakes.

[Samuel]

"Just because people are siblings doesn’t always mean they’re allies. Sometimes it’s the siblings who have the most motive of all to bring someone down."

No kidding just look at Hadi Khamenei, the SL's brother.

[Afshin]

@ Magdalan

Actually IRAN could theoraticlly still be offending... Iran = Arianzamin = Land of Aerians refering to the Maeds (kurds, possibly Lors), the Persians and the Parthians.. the 3 major tribes in the then Iran... So still leaving out many tribes..

Yet Iran is offcourse the real name (also historically) and Persian the language

[apk]

I vote for the "jealousy theory"

[Rev. Magdalen]

@Afshin Oh no, really? Damn.

[Megan]

Bozorg,

“Samuel, since you’re such an avowed anti-racist, why didn’t we hear a peep from you when a recent commenter made repeated racist remarks about Persians, using terminology similar to that of Saddam Hussein when he framed his war as Arab vs. Ajam (derogatory Arab word for Persians, commonly used throughout the Arab world)?”

Because he is an Arab. You said in one of your previous commoners that you doubted if he was an Iranian or ever lived in Iran. I thought about that comment of yours and started pay attention to his writings. There never have been any details about places of events or specific location in Iran in his comments. Take Google away from him and quiz him on Iran and he would flunk the test.

He is on the payroll as cyber agent to give legitimacy to the Iran regime that is the lifeline of Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas.

What I find amusing that now he finds Pedestrian as an authority to support his argument. That is the joke of the day.

[Samuel]

Bravo Megan (mohareb),

You just made my point ten times over. I say that those who oppose the govt. are obsessed with Arabs and you wind up calling me an Arab. Thank you, thank you. And I know how hard it must have been for you to write that without adding a pejorative before "Arab". I would be surprised if your hand did not go into spasms as you held back.

As for Pedestrian I agreed with a point she made and cited it just like I referenced an article from tehranbureau.com--not exactly an outpost of the IRGC. There is nothing wrong with quoting those who oppose your position and Pedestrian often makes sense even when I don't agree with the conclusions. The same holds true of EA. While I disagree with most of the conclusions arrived at by Scott Lucas his point of view is very well presented and well documented which is what makes this site a great resource. The site is also generally critical of Israeli crimes which I appreciate.

If I remember correctly it was you who attacked Pedestrian as some sort of pro-govt. stooge which is about as ridiculous as you can get.

[Megan]

Davoud Vs. Mahmoud.

Is it possible Davoud is making nice with SL for potential position?

[Rev. Magdalen]

As for the question of whether or not Arabic-speaking Basiji attacked people at protests, referenced in the TehranBureau article, I was told by several different people that at least in the early vids from the summertime it is possible to clearly hear Arabic with a Lebanese accent being spoken by Basiji. I have no idea if that is true or not, not being able to tell the difference in languages myself. I also have no grad students or research assistants who could pore over the hundreds of videos to find any such instances, but somebody should look into that someday and find out one way or another whether such video exists.

[Barry]

Samuel

Racism is a form of generalization - and you generalize all the time eg "I say that those who oppose the govt. are obsessed with Arabs "

I oppose the current Iranian Govt - but I have no obsession with Arabs. (Not even Indians - whose Hindu religion possesses much human wisdom, although I have to admit that I have strong reservations about Islam).

Actually, as an interested observer of Iranian ways, it seem to me that the current "Regime" are the racists (and religious bigots)

Al Jazeera - "Iranian Arabs seek equal rights"

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iranaftertherevolution/2008/12/200812691745418706.html

Barry

[Megan]

Yeh, regime supporters come in all shape and forms.

Supporting the mixing of religion and state and presenting baseless arguments to justify such absurd position or advocating an interim remedy is to replac mullah A with mullah B is supporting the fascist regime in Iran. There is no dancing around that. Those who are standing with people of Iran better call these imposters for what they are.

The undeniable fact is those who support the Fascist regime in Iran (whether directly and loudly or by advocating to go slowly or just removing bad actors) are those who stand to lose the most from its fall. The rest of us who do not stand to lose anything have snapped out of our delusions.

[apk]

Off subject- but why , with his checkered past, do so many in Iran and around the world support Mousavi?

[Bill]

Samuel,

Did you not notice the hypocrisy of your own statement?

"Islam is not racist. The only issue with Arabs in Iran has been the fact that other Arab states (Iraq under Saddam) tried to use them to undermine Iran.

If you converted to Islam and wanted to go and study at Qom for example you would be welcomed and treated equally."

The hypocrisy is "...not rascist..." but in the following sentence says "If you converted to Islam..." Puritanically speaking your correct and it just clearly highlights the conditional aspect of Islam. That conditional aspect is ones faith and adherence to it. Maybe not overt racism but most certaintly discrimination. It should also be pointed out like much of the Islamic world, Iran has a long history of discriminating those of other faiths. The treatment of the Bahai's is a case in point. The really sad part is that this "conditional" behavior is clearly laid out and supported in scripture. It begs the question can Islam ever trully accept those of other faiths? I would encourage you to ponder the issue because it also happens to be a central point the regime uses to discredit the opposition declaring them enemies of God.

Thx
Bill

[Samuel]

Bill,

No hypocrisy at all. Islam does not care about your ethnicity or color of your skin. This is why the faith came to be dominated, and has been dominated by non-Arabs, namely, Turks, Persians and Indians. Today the largest Muslim country is Indonesia, neither, Arab, Turk, Persian or Indian and it is a non-issue for Muslims. It is the reason why Malcolm X was so astonished to see racial diversity during Haj leading him to question his own anti-white views.

"It should also be pointed out like much of the Islamic world, Iran has a long history of discriminating those of other faiths."

As you know the Islamic treatment of minorities in places like Spain and the Ottoman empire compares rather favorably with that of Christian Europe. See e.g. the conference in Qom referenced in my prior post about the expulsion of Muslims from Andalucia.

Today Iran enjoys wonderful brotherly relations with many non-muslim countries and heads of state including the many promising young leaders in South America. Even in Syria Iran has no issue with the ruling Alawites, hardly an example of Shiite orthodoxy.

Within Iran as you know Christians and Jews are not persecuted which is one of the reasons why the country still has a relatively significant jewish population, the 2nd largest in the region I believe after the obvious one.

The case of the Bahais is unique and unfortunate. My hope is that the country will soon resolve this issue.

[Barry]

Samuel

Your usage of English is very good - but it is still not, in my assessment, your first language. I do not know what your mother tongue is. I cannot comment on your Spanish - nor your Persian, as I do not speak either and therefore do not embarrass myself by trying to do so.

But, I hope you can understand - I cannot "convert" to Islam. Because I have no religious faith to convert from.

Religion can be a wonderful thing for many people - it allows them to receive answers to unanswerable questions. To this end, it offers them peace. To others, it offers them some certainty and gives them direction in a world they find difficult to understand and navigate. This can also be good for them.

Then we come to the last group. Those who seize upon religion to provide them with "the way". These are the most unfortunate. Without some man-made system to tell them what the Universe is all about, they are lost. They have no answer to the questions that the Universe poses to them. They have no understanding - and are fearful of death. I am sure that you belong to this group.

This is not meant to be an insult to you - I just wish that you could understand your purpose in life. It is certainly not to impose your thoughts and theories upon others. Soon, we will all no longer be here - there is no everlasting life for you or me. This is not an easy thing to accept. For this reason alone, Life is wonderful (while it lasts).

Barry

[Arshama]

@ Afshin #14

I call him Rahim MASHANGI because of his recent statements on the prophets, especially that Noah could not establish justice though he lived 950 years!
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/7766/
Whom does he want to fool with such bollocks? By doing so he is perfectly in line with his master, who wears a halo since his UN-speech and searches for the Mahdi in the Jamkaran well. It is to this "rammali va kaf-bini" to which Moussavi referred in his electoral speeches: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCkSCP22t-Q
Iranians want a government based on rationality and expertise instead of this disgraceful show of a bunch of superstitious clowns, who throw dust in the people's eyes in order to rob out the country more easily.

[Barry]

Samuel

"about the expulsion of Muslims from Andalucia."

Oh dear - oh dear!!! Are you referring to something that happened 500-600 years ago???? Some people of Ireland are still marching about some battle that occurred in 1690.

Does your hatred of "whatever" go so far back?? How are we all going to live together when some like you will not forget the long long past. We are all indeed doomed.

yes - the Muslims of Andalucia were expelled after about 1500 (you are better at this historical stuff than me!) - but only after they invaded the place about 1000 years before. Do we really need to keep digging this stuff up??

My understanding that the word "Palestine" is actually a Roman word used AFTER the Romans kicked the Jews out of Israel/Judaia. Or is that an "inconvenient truth" of long past history.

I fear there will be no peace for the people of what the English term "the Middle East" Maybe I might be wrong - it looks like the "stupid" Irish have finally decided to live in the present, rather than in the long ago past. Who knows - it may also be able to happen in the "Middle East".

Certainly nobody can force it upon them. I would be happy so long as they leave the rest of the world alone!!

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

"yes – the Muslims of Andalucia were expelled after about 1500 (you are better at this historical stuff than me!) – but only after they invaded the place about 1000 years before. Do we really need to keep digging this stuff up??"

Yes but when the Muslims invaded they did not expel all the Christians and Jews. Big difference. Under Islam there were no "holocausts". Even the Armenian Genocide was carried out by secular Turks (i.e. "Young Turks") not devout muslims.

[Barry]

Samuel

You really don't get it - do you???

I could say "Who cares???" - but obviously, you do! You and others like you are obsessed with what happened 500, 1000 years ago. Yes - the Spanish Christian Catholics were of their times, pre the Christian renaissance and Reformation. You of course know the Spanish Inquisition??

You used the expression "Yes - But ---" . This is an indication of somebody who says they are listening - but they are not! Their mind is already made up.

This is now the 21st Century - Western/Roman/ Catholic calendar. Don't know where the Mayas/ Persians/Chinese put it. We have nearly 7000 million people on the planet - with a lot more to come over the next 25 years or so.

Are you going to continue to push this particular religion of yours as the "only answer" - going to try to take the world back to Spain of 1400 when the "Moors" ruled the world as it was known then - going to try to make your particular brand of Islam the dominant one??

I do think we are all doomed.

Barry

[Afshin]

@ Arshama

Now you are making asumptions. Making what one person says the words and thoughts of what another says.

Do you have his full speech translated in English and the exact words which were so idiotic !?

I don's know the full text and by going JUST by "Noah could not establish justice though he lived 950 years!" I can not call him Mashang.

How can one argue with that !!?? U can easily translate that into men have fought injustice for thousands of years and even Noah fighting for 950 years could not stop the unjustice in the world...

What I mean just from that phrase one can not get the message of teh statement or the context it was said in.

[Megan]

“Islam is not racist. The only issue with Arabs in Iran has been the fact that other Arab states (Iraq under Saddam) tried to use them to undermine Iran.”
“If you converted to Islam and wanted to go and study at Qom for example you would be welcomed and treated equally.”

Unless they are Sunni Muslims in which case all bets are off. Sunni Muslims are not even considered Muslims to the regime in Iran. Sunni mullahs in Iran do not have the same privileges as Shia mullahs. They are harassed if they hold mass.

Islam is not only racist, it is sexist. After Khomeini occupation women were reclassified and reduced to household maids and baby making robots. Women are not even allowed to board the bus in the front; they must use the door in the back of the bus. There are too many dirty little secrets that Iran regime and its supports sweep under the rug.

[Catherine]

To anyone who knows, what does MASHANGI mean? And please, everyone who uses Persian in your English posts, would you put the translation in parenthesis next to the Persian? Enquiring minds have a right to know! :-)

[Arshama]

Afshin,

If you really believe that Noah lived 950 years, I find no common ground for a discussion.

Catherine,

Sorry, Persian 'mashang' means something like 'idiot' or 'crazy'. And "rammali va kaf-bini" are pejorative expressions for fortune-telling and palm reading, at least the first is. Can't we write in German, it would be much easier for me ;-)