Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

2155 GMT: Hmm.... Looks like the homepage of Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has been visited by a hacker.

2150 GMT: Are You Listening in Tel Aviv? The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has pretty much slapped a public restraining order on an Israeli attack on Iran. He told the Washington Institute of Near East Policy that Iran was "on a path that has strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons and have been for some time" and "that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome"; however, he continued:

On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome....That part of the world could become much more unstable, which is a dangerous global outcome.

(Here's a surprise: Iran's Press TV is already featuring Mullen's words.)

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The Latest from Iran (6 January): Distractions

2125 GMT: An Iranian blog has published pictures of those trying to attack Mehdi Karroubi in Qazvin tonight (see 2025 GMT).

An Iranian activist has posted a summary on Facebook, claiming about 200 plainclothes "thugs" gathered outside the house where Karroubi was staying. The police tried to prevent a confrontation as about 500 people looked on; however, according to the activist, there were Revolutionary Guard commanders amongst the would-be attackers. When Karroubi was leaving, his car was pelted with eggs and broken bricks.

2120 GMT: Deutsche Welle publishes a story mentioned by one of our readers earlier today. The Iranian Government has declared that "defaced" banknotes will not be considered as legal currency as of 16 January. The announcement is clearly aimed at the widespread movement of protest by putting Green slogans on the currency.

In response, the opposition has declared that 17 January will be a day of protest with massive circulation of the "Green" banknotes.

2039 GMT: 99% Support is Not Enough. Peyke Iran reports that Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian has resigned as a member of Parliament because there has not been "100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei". Hosseinian is considered a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, whom he has served as security advisor. He is also a former Deputy Minister of Intelligence.

2025 GMT: Karroubi Visit and Qazvin Clashes. A lot of chatter about Mehdi Karroubi's trip to Qazvin, 165 miles northwest of Tehran. Saham News reports that there were clashes when  the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying, was attacked.

2000 GMT: Iranian human rights groups report that student leader Majid Tavakoli, detained after his speech at the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, has been tried and sentenced in Revolutionary Court.

Tavakoli, given permission to contact his family for the first time since his arrest, said he was charged with insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and gathering and spreading propaganda against the regime. The trial was held behind closed doors, and Tavakoli remains in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities attempted to humiliate Tavakoli by distributing his photograph in woman's hejab, prompting the protest "We Are All Majid".

1950 GMT: Fasih Yasamani was hanged on Wednesday.

Yasamani, in prison since 2007, was accused of belonging to the opposition party Pajvak,
an armed Kurdish group. The evidence against Yasamani were his confessions, which he claimed were obtained by torture.

The 28-year-old Yasamani is the second Kurdish citizen executed since the June election. Ehsan Fattahian was killed on 11 November.

Iranian human rights groups claim that there are 17 other political prisoners on death row in Kurdistan.

1945 GMT:Ashura "Mohareb" Trials? Islamic Republic News Agency reports that five of the protesters on Ashura (27 December) will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

There has already reportedly been a trial of demonstrators. The distinction in this report is these five will be charged with "mohareb" (a war against God), a crime which can be punished by death.

1730 GMT: Radio Silence Indeed. Because of complications of site outage and my commitments in Beirut, we've been limited in updates today. I'll be here about 1930 GMT to go through the day's events.

1005 GMT: Missing. The husband of student activist Bahareh Hedayat, has told Rooz Online, "We have no information about her." Hedayat was detained at the end of December.

1000 GMT: A Petition with Caution.
An interesting story out of Australia....

After the resignation of an Iranian diplomat in Norway in protest over the Government's handling of the post-election conflict, Iran Solidarity in Melbourne has posted a petition asking Iran's Ambassador to Australia to give up his post.

There's a note on the petition, however, which points to fear as well as activism: "***READ BEFORE SIGNING*** UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD ANYBODY USE THEIR REAL NAME WHEN SIGNING THIS PETITION."

0625 GMT: Tantalising --- but True? One claim, and it is only a claim at this point, to note: Maziar Bahari writes in Newsweek: "Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position."

0620 GMT: Possibly the quietest period in Iranian politics since June, even in chatter amongst our Internet sources.

Speaking of those sources, we have two special analyses this morning. Josh Shahryar offers a detailed response to a recent article ridiculing the role of social media in the post-election events in Iran. And I flash back to late June with "A Tale of Two Twitterers".

We'll be on limited service today because of conference duties. Please keep sending in news and comment, especially if situation picks up later today.

Comments

[Barry]

Samuel

When I used the word "they" , I was specifically referring to Mousavi and Karroubi. I don't recall them at all saying the things you have said - nor do I recall them demeaning Khomenei. I suspect that you are perhaps using a more generic unspecified "they" -- as in "the enemy". There is something a little "Kafka-esque" about your paranoia.

I don't believe that you need to be paranoid about Mousavi and Karroubi - but there are probably others for whom it would be appropriate. :)

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

Khatami, the third green leader said it. I'm not using a generic "they".

Mousavi and Karroubi don't demean Khomeini, on the contrary, they praise him to no end. But in their praises they portray khomeini as some sort of liberal, pro-reformist in effect a quasi green. That is a fantasy khomeini who never existed. And it is a lie created out of thin air by the greens.

Read the famous Khomeini letter dismissing Montazeri for yourself and tell me if you think the author is a liberal reformist.

http://www.baabeilm.org/khomeini/montezari.pdf

For example, addressing Montazeri:

"Since it has become clear that after me you are going to hand over this country, our dear Islamic revolution, and the Muslim people of Iran to the liberals, and through that channel to the hypocrites [Mojahedin-e Khalq], you are no longer eligible to succeed me as the legitimate leader of the state.
You, in most of your letters, speeches and stances, have shown that you believe the liberals and hypocrites should rule in this country. It is so clear that your remarks have been dictated by the hypocrites that I did not see any point in sending a reply."

[Barry]

Samuel

Considering that Khatami did not even stand for election as President - I am not sure how he would be able to effect reform to Iranian Governance.

But - as for Mousavi and Karroubi - who both stood for election and "may" have become President - in what way would they have attempted to reform Iran that you would object to?. They seem to wish to adhere to and actually abide by the Constitution - which specifically supports your ongoing "revolution". What do you think they would attempt to "undermine" the Revolution?

Do you support the Constitution of Iran in it's entirety? What part of the Constitution would Mousavi and Karroubi undermine??

Barry

[Ali]

Barry,

Thanks for the comment but I'm not sure that I see any sign of such realizations from Samuel though.
It was only two days ago that he was saying the problem with Iran was the government's lack of technical tools for crowd control.
I'm afraid he's a lost soul.

Ali

[Michelle]

Samuel,

You fail to realize the Supreme Leader and current government have even violated things enshrined in the current constitution.

At bare minimum, things such as the freedom of assembly and to protest. I sure didn't see any of that enforced on June 15th, when basij opened fire on protesters. Now none of that "the protesters started it". There are plenty of videos where peaceful protesters were charged by riot police/basij and clubbed violently.

I see nothing Islamic about this current system. I do see a gross misappropriation of a religious faith and using it to justify numerous abuses. I see a Supreme Leader who has committed the utmost sacrilege of being a false prophet and claiming a divine mandate to justify his atrocities.

In any case what all of us say here cannot detract from the fact that a struggle has erupted in Iran and that the legitimacy of the regime is shot to pieces in the eyes of many there.

[Samuel]

Barry,

"What part of the Constitution would Mousavi and Karroubi undermine??"

Let's get real. Khatami is the former two time president and the closest advisor to Mousavi. All three wanted to undermine the Mandate of the Jurisprudent i.e. the position of the Supreme Leader in the hierarchy of the system. The postion of the Jurist is at the center of the Constitution of 1979 as Amended in 1989 shortly before the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini when the criteria for Leader of the Revolution was changed.

Khomeini said that the "Constitution of the Islamic Republic means the Constitution of Islam". The chief architect of the 1979 Constitution Ayatollah Beheshti stated clearly that the document was designed to create a "regime of the umma and the Imamate". In other words a "community of believers" not a constitutional republic in the western sense. The goals of the constitution were always to create in essence a theocratic state, with democratic components to be sure, but led by a qualified Islamic Jurist.

As long as those running for office accepted this Reformists could run and achieve considerable power as when Khatami was elected president twice. This time however the greens wanted to destroy the system and create something very different.

[Samuel]

"It was only two days ago that he was saying the problem with Iran was the government’s lack of technical tools for crowd control."

Correct, a problem which they seem to have reduced with the importation of the anti-riot trucks.

[Samuel]

Michelle,

The govt. is at war with a radicalized minority trying to overthrow it. What part of "Death to Khamenei" don't folks understand? As with all wars some tactics may seem harsh but they are nevertheless necessary to defend the Islamic government. Much harsher tactics were employed against the MKO two decades ago and I for one would hope that we don't get to that stage but it is a possibility.

The MKO allied itself with an invader Saddam Hussein and today's greens are in a defacto alliance with those powers trying to limit and constrain Iranian regional power and influence.

[Barry]

Samuel

"trying to limit and constrain Iranian regional power and influence"

AAH!! - so now we really get to the crux of your passion for the "Islamic Revolution."

Now come on - admit it. The "Iranian Islamic Revolution" is all about domination of Sunni Islam by Shia Islam, isn't it? You can admit it - I don't mind. They are 2 sides of the same coin for me. :) The conflict with "Zionism" is really only a means to get to the main game!

Barry

[Thomas]

Samuel,

Even an Islamic Revolution requires popular support to sustain itself.

Ruhollah Khomeini understood that.