The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities

2125 GMT: More Fun with the MKO. I guess one "Dumbest Strategy of Day" Award isn't enough. Following Euro MP Struan Stevenson's cheerful advocacy of an alliance with the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khaq "terrorist" group (MKO), Allan Gerson, a lawyer who has worked for the State and Justice Departments, drops by The Huffington Post to assure:

As a practical matter de-designation of the [Mujahedin-e-Khalq] as a terrorist entity will only enhance Washington's desired outcome of a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It would strengthen America's hand in bringing a faltering regime to the negotiating table by letting Tehran know in no uncertain terms that we have taken off the kid-gloves.

Oh, yeah, I'm sure that the Tehran regime, which has been trying to rally opinion by claiming a US-MKO plot to overthrow the Government, will be absolutely traumatised and have no close what to do if Washington follows Gerson's recommendation.

(Oh, so sorry, I took Gerson at face value as an objective if pretty dim commentator. He is in fact co-counsel representing the MKO in the case to take it off the US Government's terrorist list.)

2055 GMT: Former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani have written messages of condolence to the family of President Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

2030 GMT: Battling with the Clerics. A series of skirmishes between Government and clerics today. Ayatollah Sadeghi Tehrani, taking offence at remarks by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has declared that the retention of the former First Vice-President and current Presidential Chief of Staff in any official position is “haram” (religiously forbidden).

And Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, a persistent post-cleric of the Government but relatively quiet in recent weeks, has re-emerged to declare that the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is not a principle of Islam and denying it is not a sin.

NEW Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
Iran: How Far Do The Green Movements Go?
Iran & Social Media: Dispelling Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Parsons)
The Latest from Iran (12 January): The Killing of the Professor

Look also for some repercussions from the Government's arrest of Mohammad Taghi Khalaji (see 1745 GMT). He is the father of prominent Mehdi Khalaji, who is based at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Expect WINEP and their allies in the Washington network of "think tanks" to get vocal --- indeed, WINEP has put out a special alert and Danielle Pletka, a Bush-era proponent of US power now at the American Enterprise Institute, has already jumped in, "Iran’s Nazi-Fascism and How You Can Help Fight It". (John Hannah, former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, has now joined the chorus.)

2015 GMT: The Scholars and Mousavi. 54 Iranian university professors, scholars, and expatriate intellectuals have written an open letter to express firm support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s "5-proposal" statement, issued on 1 January, as “a step toward the consistency of the Green Movement” with "a minimum political platform with specific demands upon the government”. The signatories specifically praised “the four sections related to free elections and the preconditions for having free elections, including the release of all political prisoners, free and independent press and media, and the emphasis on the rights of forming political parties and holding gatherings”.

Interestingly, the 54 openly referred to the unstated test of the proposals, the removal of the President: “Mousavi while giving the priority to the democratic movement of the people of Iran proved that for advancing the demands of this movement is ready to negotiate with the ruling powers. His indirect position regarding the “legal” removal of Ahmadinejad through the parliament is a signature of these democratic tendencies.”

1745 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, a cleric close to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been arrested.

1735 GMT: Trotting Out the Lines on Ali-Mohammadi. Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story", covering the Ali-Mohammadi killing, has just started. Another appearance for Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi (see separate video), who declares --- without presenting evidence --- that "the evidence points to the Israelis" and diverts into a declaration of American support for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

Nothing new there, but an interesting twist with the other guest, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi of the University of London. Ranjdbar-Daemi, who has very good sources on Ali-Mohammadi, is able to set out that the Tehran physicist has no connection with Iran's nuclear programme. He also brings out Ali-Mohammadi's support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

This brings out the quote of the day from Marandi: "The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization did not say that he had absolutely nothing to do with them; they said that he did not work for them." Which somehow proves that Ali-Mohammadi was indeed involved in the nuclear programme.

Oh, sorry, this is the Quote of the Day: "The fact that someone voted for Mr Mousavi does not mean he is a Mousavi supporter. Most of my colleagues who voted for Mr Mousavi no longer support him today. That issue is long gone."

1730 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi's Last Lecture. An absolutely reliable EA source has confirmed that the audio file of Professor Ali-Mohammadi's statement at Tehran University last week (see 1450 GMT) is genuine.

1555 GMT: Dumbest Strategy of Day "Let's Promote MKO". A great day at The Washington Times: having scooped the Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case award with "War with Iran Nears" (see 1045 GMT), they give space to a member of the European Parliament, Struan Stevenson, to call for support of the People's Mujahideen of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq armed resistance (see 1005 GMT).

Stevenson seems oblivious to the notion that almost none of the groups in the Iranian opposition want to work with the PMOI/MEK or that taking the organisation off the US Government's terrorist list would feed the Iranian regime propaganda line that Washington is backing a group which has sought regime change --- often with violence --- for more than a generation. Indeed, he seems oblivious to any consideration of realpolitik as he concludes, "This is intervening in Iran's internal affairs in favor of the mullahs - and now realpolitik dictates this has to be changed."

1545 GMT: Don't Look Here, Look Over There! Another of President Ahmadinejad's "Let's Talk About the World but Not About Iran" televised speeches....

West trying to dominate the Middle East and Central Asia:""All their planning is aimed at this goal. Human rights, fighting nuclear weapons and terrorism are all a big lie....With the pretext of September 11 they started the fire of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and today in Yemen."

Israel will be vanquished: "The supporters of Zionists should know that the Zionist regime is on the way down to collapse and no one can save it. The Iranian nation will cut from the arm any hand that has been extended to it with the aim (of committing) a crime."

And Saudi Arabia should get on the right side (against Israel) and not on the wrong side (in Yemen): "We were expecting that Saudi Arabian officials act like a mentor and make peace between brothers, not that they themselves enter the war and use bombs ... and machineguns against Muslims. If only a small part of the weapons of Saudi Arabia were used in favor of Gaza and against the Zionist regime, today there would be no sign of the Zionist regime in the region."

1450 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi Recording? An Iranian activist has posted claimed audio of a statement by Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi at Tehran University last week.

1440 GMT: So We're NOT Deporting Iranians? Word in from the National Iranian American Council that the author of a proposed US law (which is idiotic on the whole, let alone in parts) has at least dropped a measure that could have sent Iranians in the US packing:

Congressman Gresham Barrett's (R-SC) office has confirmed to NIAC that he will drop language aimed at deporting non-immigrant Iranians from the U.S. when he reintroduces the Stop Terrorists Entry Program (STEP) Act today....

When the STEP Act was first introduced in 2003, it contained provisions that would have mandated the deportation of all Iranians on student visas, temporary work visas, exchange visas, and tourist visas from the United States within 60 days....

Though the elimination of the deportation provisions constitutes a significant victory for the Iranian-American community, the bill remains problematic. It would make it illegal for Iranians to travel to the United States, though some exceptions may be made for medical emergencies and political or religious asylum after "extensive federal screening."

1335 GMT: Students on Ali-Mohammadi. Students of the Physics Department of Tehran University have issued a statement condemning the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi and expressing their condolences to his family. The students claim that Ali-Mohammadi was outspoken in recent months in support of the Green Movement and university protests. They add that Ali-Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme.

1305 GMT: A Sit-In Success? An Iranian website is claiming that students at Razi University in Kermanshah, after sit-in protests and boycotts of final examinations, have succeeded in getting release of their classmates from detention.

1215 GMT: Motahari presses ahead. The campaign of Ali Motahari, high-profile member of Parliament and brother-in-law of Ali Larijani, against the Ahmadinejad is now being waged on a daily basis. Today Motahari wrote an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. Opposing the appointment of Saeed Mortazavi as a Presidential aide, Motahari has asked Larijani to investigate the role of Mortazavi, formerly Tehran's Prosecutor General, in post-election detainee abuses.

Ali Shakrokhi, the head of the Juridical Commission of Parliament, has added a twist by suggesting that Ahmadinejad could sue Motahari over allegations that the President is responsible for post-election crisis.

1155 GMT: Stay the Course. The regime is not giving up on its quest to portray Professor Ali-Mohammadi's murder as a foreign plot. To the contrary, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani declared today:

We had received information a few days before the incident that intelligence services of the Zionist regime intend to carry out terrorist acts in Tehran in cooperation with the CIA....After the failure of all its hostile policies, it currently resorts to the physical elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Larijani even got personal with a verbal assault on President Obama:

Such filthy actions are easy to carry out but such adventurism will do you no good....You have practically promoted acts of terrorism....This black spot will be recorded in the dossier of US crimes against the Iranian nation.

1045 GMT: Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case. The editorial staff of The Washington Times know what it all means: "War with Iran Nears":

The coming conflict will not be an overnight air strike followed by bellicose language, like the Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear site in September 2007. Disrupting Iran's nuclear program will require Israel to undertake a sustained campaign. Iran will launch reprisal attacks through its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, encourage Syria to respond, foment chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan and potentially order terror attacks on Western targets.

1005 GMT: Strange But True. On the same day that Iranian state media was claiming Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO), backed by the US Government, may have killed Professor Ali-Mohammadi, the political wing of the organisation --- the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran (PMOI) --- was appearing in a Washington court to get itself removed from the US Government's list of terrorist organisations.

The PMOI lawyer claimed, "The organization has foresworn violence. We walk the walk. There have been no terrorist acts by PMOI for eight years." He had no success, however. US Government lawyers declared that Washington would not negotiate with "an organization that for at least 30 years has been involved in terrorism, violence, assassination, et cetera" and that "classified material" made clear that the group should still be listed.

1000 GMT: In a separate entry, EA's Mr Smith uses excellent sources and knowledges to consider the political significance of the murder of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

0910 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning. Persian2English offers a vital addition to our report last night of the freeing of those Mothers of Mourning who were detained during their Saturday protest: they were released on bail, so criminal charges are still pending.

0900 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Case. The "Iran Royal Society", who --- according to Iranian state media --- had claimed responsibility for the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, have denied any involvement.

The Los Angeles Times has a full report on the murder and on Mohammadi, and The Washington Post adds useful information.

And The Guardian of London offers an interesting editorial comment:

As the regime in Tehran loses its last vestige of legitimacy with its own people, it is important that international sanctions do not restore to the Iranian leadership its role as defender of the faith. The US must not play into the hands of an Iranian president keen to cast domestic opponents as foreign agents. The temptation in Washington is to think that it can influence events in Iran. It has in the past, but rarely, if ever, for the better.

0845 GMT: Overnight news continues to be dominated by the murder of Tehran University physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have a special feature considering the politics and propaganda around the case, and we also have a video of Flynt Leverett using the episode to set out his line on the US pursuit of regime change and support of "terrorism".

Beyond the furour, there is a useful, first-hand reminder of the conflict in a letter from Tehran claiming, "The Regime is Over".

Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi's Murder

Enduring America's Mr Smith, who has first-hand sources and knowledge of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, the physicist killed yesterday in the explosion of a booby-trapped motorcycle, assesses the consequences of the murder:

The murder of Massoud Ali-Mohammadi adds yet another mystery to the litany of violence, unexplained circumstances, and unpredictable twists that Iran has been witnessing since June 12.

Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities
The Latest from Iran (12 January): The Killing of the Professor

Ali-Mohammadi was a mild-mannered academic who, like most of his colleagues, quietly supported reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi in the run-up to the presidential vote and who became more vocal in its aftermath. However, his association with physics --- he was among the very first scholars to emerge from the Islamic Republic's universities with a Ph.D., made it easy for state media to link him to the nuclear field and for Western news organisations and Israeli analysts to quickly claim he was active in the nuclear programme of Iran.

The accusations brought forward by the latter group are baseless and sensationalist. Stuck with a complex topic that required careful attention, the Western media committed a series of major blunders. While experts of the field pored over Ali-Mohammadi's publication list and concluded that there was nothing nuclear in it, the Los Angeles Times claimed that the scientist had authored books on the nuclear topic, mixing up journal articles and full-fledged books as well as Ali-Mohammadi's specialism, particle physics, and nuclear physics. [A later revision of the profile changed "books" to "articles"] Other news sources merrily parroted the official Iranian state media line, which lost more and more credibility as the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation denied any relationship with Ali-Mohammadi and Ahmad Shirzad, a close friend and lifelong colleague, ruled out any academic interest of the slain physicist in the field.

Friends, colleagues, and even specialists were adamant in stating that Ali-Mohammadi had no role whatsoever in Iran's nuclear programme. In an interview with the website Isracast, a former head of Israel's Mossad admitted that he had never heard of the physicist. The head of BBC Persian TV, Sadeq Saba, summed up the channel's exhaustive research yesterday on the flagship 60 Minutes programme with one clear message: Ali-Mohammadi was not, to the best of their knowledge, a nuclear scientist.

The question therefore arises: why would a foreign intelligence service venture so deep inside the heart of the present-day high-security atmosphere which looms over Tehran and plant such a powerful bomb to kill someone who was, at the most, an extremely peripheral figure in the much-feared Iranian nuclear programme? Why would opposition movements such as the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) spend so many resources to kill a relatively anonymous university professor, when the power of the explosives planted in the motorcycle outside Ali-Mohammadi's home could have killed far more prominent people?

Clues as to what really happened yesterday may be gathered from the reaction of Ali-Mohammadi's colleagues and an ominous message put forth by the Combatant Clerics Association, the reformist group which counts Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi as its members and which has been extremely forthright in its critical communiques since June 12.

The former group were cowering in fear last night, thinking that they could have been slain instead of Ali-Mohammadi and that they could be next. They had no doubts about what happened. The physicist was killed to bring about silence and terror within the restive community of scientists and academics who had produced a long list of open letters and appeals against the ongoing assaults of the Basiji on the university campuses.

The latter association's communique is even more revealing. It calls on the the authorities to stamp down upon the "autonomous activities" of the nirooha-yi khodsar ("self-acting groups"), a term used by the reformist press and leaders for the rogue elements within the more extremist branches of the security forces. These groups have been already active in the late 1990s in the "Chain Murders", during which at least 80 dissidents from various walks of life were killed.

The murder of Ali-Mohammadi was therefore almost certainly completely void of any government sanction or planning. It would be far-fetched to pin the blame on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government or on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, the hasty reaction of the authorities and the statements associating the event to foreign agents --- which, as cogently noted by Sadeq Saba, imply that Iran is utterly unable to protect its own capital from foreign terrorist attacks ---- are more an attempt to cover up an embarrassing operation by rogue internal forces than a plausible explanation for what really went on in Qeytarieh in northern Tehran yesterday.

The onus is therefore on the authorities to prevent the killings of Seyed Ali Mousavi, Mir Hossein Mousavi's nephew, and Massoud Ali-Mohammadi from developing into a sequel to the Chain Murders.

Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi

Perhaps the first rule of analysis, when considering an event such as yesterday's killing of Tehran University physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, is this:

Wait. Wait and watch the analyses of others.

Throughout the day, Iranian state media beat out a steady rhythm. Ali-Mohammadi was a worthy "revolutionary" for the Islamic Republic, who was involved with its nuclear programme. He had been murdered by "anti-revolutionaries" and "enemies" as part of the plot to overthrow the Republic. The only distinction in the coverage was whether Ali-Mohammadi's assassins were monarchists or members of the "terrorist" Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
The Latest from Iran (12 January): The Killing of the Professor

As there was no evidence for this line --- apart from an assertion that the "Iran Royal Association" had taken responsibility for the assassination, a report immediately denied by the group --- any analysis based on it is spurious. What is more interesting is that the Iranian regime's declarations were echoed by another source: Israel.

DEBKAfile, the website linked to Israeli Government and private sources, should always be read for misinformation and "spin" rather than straight-up analysis. So it was intriguing that the site quickly posted:

The covert war against Iran's nuclear program struck deep inside the Islamic Republic with the death Tuesday, Jan. 12 of nuclear physicist professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi, 50, by a remote-controlled exploding motorbike as he left his Tehran home. He was a senior professor at Tehran University which DEBKAfile's Iranian sources say is an important hub of nuclear weapons research....

Iranian authorities see Mohammadi's death as ramping up the Western effort to recruit, intimidate or liquidate the brains behind Iran's nuclear progress and a warning

Meir Javedanfar, the Israel-based analyst whose readings are given more weight in the "mainstream" than the assertions of DEBKAfile, was not as definitive in The Guardian. However, he started from the premise that Ali-Mohammadi was in Iran's nuclear programme, and all his scenarios were of "foreign" hands in the killing. After putting forth the MKO option, he got to his argument:

It is also possible that Mohammadi was assassinated by a foreign intelligence agency. Should that be the case, this recent incident comes amid a series of setbacks for [Iran's] Oghab-2 counter-intelligence bureau.

There is evidence of an Israeli covert programme, supported by the US, to disrupt Iran's nuclear development through kidnappings and killings. However, there is no evidence that Mohammadi was a target. Instead, throughout yesterday, the public record put forth, mainly through activists searching the Internet, was not of a nuclear scientist. Ali-Mohammadi was a professor of particle physics who had published dozens of academic papers and had an international reputation in his field (see HomyLafayette's blog for a summary). Indeed, Ali-Mohammadi was even involved in a multi-national project which brought contact with Israeli colleagues:

The regional research project in which Ali-Mohammadi participated, along with other scientists from Iran, Israel and various Middle Eastern countries, is called Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East, or SESAME. It is based in Jordan and operates under United Nations auspices. Iranian and foreign scientists said the project has applications in industry, medicine, nanotechnology and other fields unrelated to nuclear power.

The Iranian and Israeli participation in the project is unusual because the two countries have had no ties since the 1979 Islamic revolution, and Iran refuses to recognize the Israeli government. Palestinian scientists also participate in the SESAME project, whose last meeting was held in November in Jordan.

So why this Israel-first line for the murder, for which (again) there is no evidence yet, out of Israel?

To show that it can. The message to Tehran: if you pursue your nuclear programme, we will get you. Possibly not through military action, since the US Government has objected, but through covert disruption. No one in that programme is safe.

In other words, it is irrelevant whether Mohammadi was a nuclear scientist. It is besides the point that Israel may not have had any role in the murder. Just the possibility is enough for a bit of psychological warfare against Tehran.

The problem with this too-clever-by-half spin is that it plays into the hands of those in the Iranian regime whose first priority is not necessarily the nuclear option but crushing internal opposition. The US Government, which is not as keen as Israel to be seen as a covert threat to Iran's ambitions, is staying well away from the line put out by DEBKAfile and Javedanfar as well as Iranian state media, calling the assertions "absurd". In a curious but convenient alliance, therefore, Tehran will be quite happy for Israeli "analysts" to put out the We Might Have Done It story.

But what of the Iranian opposition who might be affected by that story? That brings us to a far different scenario and spin, put out by elements of that opposition, that Ali-Mohammadi was killed by agents of the regime. Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, picking up on the fact that Ali-Mohammadi supported the Presidential candidacy of Mir Hossein Mousavi and the assertion that the physicist had become a vocal critic of the Government, offers an example:

Given that Professor Ali-Mohammadi was apparently well informed about many of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] projects, and was a prominent academic supporter of the reformists and the Green Movement, and given also his prominence, his murder would send a message to others, particularly the academics, that the hardliners may have started a campaign of assassination in order to silence the opposition -- that is if the hardliners were behind the assassination.

Another characteristic of the hardliners is that they never forgive anyone who deserts them and joins the opposition. The deserters are usually dealt with much more harshly than bona fide members of the opposition. This only adds to the suspicion that the hardliners may have had something to do with Professor Ali-Mohammadi's murder....

If the assassination signals a new campaign by the hardliners, Iran may be moving toward becoming a second Pakistan, where the military and intelligence services eliminate the opposition with impunity and make the country even more unstable than it already is.

The truth is that, for all these scenarios and purported analyses, we do not know who is responsible for yesterday's murder.

What is most important this morning is that a man has been assassinated. What is significant is many participants in conflicts inside and outside Iran --- the regime, the Green movement, Israel --- will use that death to gain political advantage.